Weak Pay Growth Puzzles Fed Chief, Just Like Everyone Else

[Gobears81]

You and I have not experienced a period of economic prosperity as adults. We only experienced pain. Entered 20's with the dot com bubble bursting and then later 20's financial crisis. Our time of economic prosperity is ahead.

That could be. OTOH, I remember a USPAP instructor talking about how appraising peaks when the economy is in a trough, and vice versa. That is due to us being perceived by banks and borrowers (and brokers, though their commission is much more expensive than an appraisal fee in many cases) as raising the costs and slowing down deals, while in recessions, banks genuinely want to know if they are making a good loan. That is a gross overstatement, of course, but worth mentioning.

I read an article recently wondering why millenials don't invest in the stock market. Seems pretty simple to me - I remember the young workers were the ones having the most trouble (by general age grouping) finding a jobs when the economy was at its worst, so we are by nature going to be more risk averse

 

[timd354]

You and I have not experienced a period of economic prosperity as adults. We only experienced pain. Entered 20's with the dot com bubble bursting and then later 20's financial crisis. Our time of economic prosperity is ahead.

LOL, you live in America and you have experienced nothing but prosperity during your entire existence. While there have been some relatively trying times in the past 20 years, we are all very prosperous compared to much of the world and on a historical basis. If you think that you have only experienced pain, then you have no clue as to what pain really is.

 

[Joe Flacco]

LOL, you live in America and you have experienced nothing but prosperity during your entire existence. While there have been some relatively trying times in the past 20 years, we are all very prosperous compared to much of the world and on a historical basis. If you think that you have only experienced pain, then you have no clue as to what pain really is.

LOL you are right. I am just saying the boomers are not the last great american generation. I know many of you guys may like to believe that. Gobears, BNM, and Joe Flaccos turn is coming.

 

[gregb]

What pain?

 

[timd354]

LOL you are right. I am just saying the boomers are not the last great american generation. I know many of you guys may like to believe that.

Well, as some one who was born in the tail end of the so-called baby boomer generation, I am not a believer in the the greatness (or weakness) of any generation compared to any other generation. People and different generations are simply a product of their times and people generally are no better or no worse in the latest generations than in any of the previous generations. What I do believe in, however, is the greatness (or weakness) of individuals. In every generation, there are certain people who find ways to achieve greatness under the given circumstances and there are certain people who will screw up every opportunity they get and then there are most people, who fall somewhere in between those two extremes.

 

[Joe Flacco]

Well, as some one who was born in the tail end of the so-called baby boomer generation, I am not a believer in the the greatness (or weakness) of any generation compared to any other generation. People and different generations are simply a product of their times and people generally are no better or no worse in the latest generations than in any of the previous generations. What I do believe in, however, is the greatness (or weakness) of individuals. In every generation, there are certain people who find ways to achieve greatness under the given circumstances and there are certain people who will screw up every opportunity they get and then there are most people, who fall somewhere in between those two extremes.

The boomers enjoyed prosperity at all extremes. Obviously not all equally but everybody benefited by the overall economic conditions.

 

[Michigan CG]

"I don't care...just need bodies...would be happy with anyone who will show up for work and can pass the pee test."
- Contractor I know

Same here. Guy I know says he can't get unskilled kids to stay, show up, get off their phones for $15/hour.

 

[timd354]

The boomers enjoyed prosperity at all extremes. Obviously not all equally but everybody benefited by the overall economic conditions.

The boomers enjoyed prosperity in the 1950's and 1960's followed by the Reagan economic boom of the 1980's which also ran through most of the 1990's, but the 1970's and early 1980's were really crappy - much more crappy than anything that you have seen

A couple of things about that...the period from of the 1970's to the early 1980's (up until about late 1982-83 when the economy turned around) was a much more difficult period to live through economically than anything that you have experienced or anything that has happened since that time period. You think have been bad at some points during the past 20 years, try thinking about how bad things were when mortgage interest rates are 18-20% and inflation was more than 10% in many years (it peaked at 14% in 1980). Now also think about how much the economy would tank (and did tank) when people had to wait in line for hours to buy gas (and hope that the gas did not first run out) or could only buy gas on certain days (in some states, only cars with license plates ending in even numbers could buy on even days of the month while only cars with odd license plate numbers could buy gas on odd days of the month) - this happened during both the 1973 and 1979 gas crises. Additionally, the 1970's saw massive unemployment (it average 7.9% after 1974 and was about 10% by the end of the decade) with the destruction of many high wage manufacturing jobs, especially in the American auto, steel and railroad industries.

 

[Joe Flacco]

The boomers enjoyed prosperity in the 1950's and 1960's followed by the Reagan economic boom of the 1980's which also ran through most of the 1990's, but the 1970's and early 1980's were really crappy - much more crappy than anything that you have seen

A couple of things about that...the period from of the 1970's to the early 1980's (up until about late 1982-83 when the economy turned around) was a much more difficult period to live through economically than anything that you have experienced or anything that has happened since that time period. You think have been bad at some points during the past 20 years, try thinking about how bad things were when mortgage interest rates are 18-20% and inflation was more than 10% in many years (it peaked at 14% in 1980). Now also think about how much the economy would tank (and did tank) when people had to wait in line for hours to buy gas (and hope that the gas did not first run out) or could only buy gas on certain days (in some states, only cars with license plates ending in even numbers could buy on even days of the month while only cars with odd license plate numbers could buy gas on odd days of the month) - this happened during both the 1973 and 1979 gas crises. Additionally, the 1970's saw massive unemployment (it average 7.9% after 1974 and was about 10% by the end of the decade) with the destruction of many high wage manufacturing jobs, especially in the American auto, steel and railroad industries.

I'm just saying that I think we are early in a period that will be similar to 50's and early 60's and late 80's and 90's. That's all.

 

[Randolph Kinney]

Regardless of whether a job is among the highest- or lowest-paying, wage growth has remained stagnant across all industries, a sign that the national economy is still on the mend in the wake of the Great Recession.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/vickyv...rst-paying-jobs-in-america-2018/#4caca06c7188

Seems like the lack of wage growth goes hand in hand with a low labor force participation rate.