Alamo Cowboy
Junior Member
- Joined
- Mar 20, 2020
- Professional Status
- Retired Appraiser
- State
- Texas
To me the NCREIF (National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries) is too small (less than 300 members) to impact everyday appraisers. The professional practice members of which appraisers are a small part of is populated mostly by pension fund managers & information type brokers. This group is dominated by academics and data contributing members. This group IMHO wants to publish statistical data and sell it. Its like AVM models used by investors/RE companies today.National firms, as a policy, are targeting an average compensation expense of 35% per employee. In practice, it depends on your market, your manager, and the services you provide.
Look at this as a learning experience. Endure what you must but do everything you can to work towards servicing NECREIF clients, right-of-way work, anything litigation support related, and master Argus Enterprise. Understand debt and equity and capital markets. Learn to appraise property using the methods market participants use, even if you cannot report it (FIRREA requires all cash capitalization and discount rates). Most market participants have a low opinion of appraisers due especially to the lack of understanding of debt and equity. You can get a lot of work from developers if you understand waterfall models and equity yields.
The MAI designation is not worth as much as it once was, but it is worth pursuing if you are young. It will open doors to really any other aspect of the business if you are smart. The best advice I give my trainees who are smart and productive is you can make a lot of money in your 20s. If you build relationships and skillsets, you can transition into any role in the future.
Right now, appraisal is complete turmoil. Virtually every report that goes out violates USPAP. For example Appraisal Institute Guide Note 12. We are required, by law, to produce a fundamental market analysis for every appraisal when market conditions are unstable. 99% of appraisers don't even know how to perform a fundamental market analysis. Most scarcely understand basic economic concepts like supply and demand. Guide Note 10 is similarly ignored. And then we have the near universal ignorance of debt, equity and global capital markets.
The money quote from Guide Note 12, which will undoubtedly come up in many courtrooms in the near future, is "The appraiser must decline or withdraw from an assignment if the client will not allow the appraiser’s scope of work to be adequate for the assignment. The level of market analysis performed must be appropriate for the assignment and not limited solely because the client wishes to reduce the appraisal cost."
In 5 years, I would estimate 75% of appraisal work as we know it will be automated, if only because systemic incompetence and data fabrication has rendered statistical analyses more reliable. As long as you can survive, focus on this inevitability.
The US marketplace still needs appraisers with their 5 major senses to do a report. Some would say "kick the tires".
When I started appraising in the early 80s many financial publications said the appraisal industry would end in 10 yrs. Appraising was a dinosaur profession or an airplane replacing a train moment. In the early 2000s I remember the financial publications saying that statistics would make appraisers obsolete as the data would be faster to produce and more accurate than an appraiser's opinion. These threads of thought never happened.
The appraisal industry is not in complete turmoil. It is functioning well. It is evolving every year to be more responsive to the marketplace. IMHO in 5 yrs the appraisal industry will be humming along as it is today. Guides from any entity will change to reflect the changing marketplace. To me commercial appraisers will always be in demand.