Oregon Doug
Senior Member
- Joined
- Jan 15, 2002
- Professional Status
- General Public
- State
- Oregon
Zhen - you say that you are just getting started in this business, I'm gonna bet that I've been in this business longer than you've been! Over the years, I've seen the demand for appraisers rise and fall - particularily in the mortgage industry. The lenders come and the lenders go.
We have been talking about the demise of the appraiser for at least three decades that I know of - and I'm still here. Does that tell you anything?
This refinance craze will come to a screeching halt just as soon as the the Feds start sucking capital out of the economy (rising interest rates) to pay for the blooming deficits - I'll bet within a couple of months. An increase in interest rates will further weaken our manufacturing economy resulting in continued high unemployment (maybe higher) which will drive the foreclosure market (lots of appraisal work). Folks will still get divorced and will continue to die (more appraisal work). Companies will still re-locate employees (more appraisal work) and homeowners will fight with their local assessors (more appraisal work) over taxes. Guys are still gonna get tossed in jail (bet you hadn't thought about appraising homes pledged as bail bond collateral - did you? - 24 hour turn time and 2x fee).
I managed to survive (barely) even during the Jimmy Carter era when interest rates were 15%.
Let all those other appraisers and appraiseretts belly up to the lender trough. My point is - diversify your practice and become the world's foremost authority on something.
You'll survive, Oregon Doug
We have been talking about the demise of the appraiser for at least three decades that I know of - and I'm still here. Does that tell you anything?
This refinance craze will come to a screeching halt just as soon as the the Feds start sucking capital out of the economy (rising interest rates) to pay for the blooming deficits - I'll bet within a couple of months. An increase in interest rates will further weaken our manufacturing economy resulting in continued high unemployment (maybe higher) which will drive the foreclosure market (lots of appraisal work). Folks will still get divorced and will continue to die (more appraisal work). Companies will still re-locate employees (more appraisal work) and homeowners will fight with their local assessors (more appraisal work) over taxes. Guys are still gonna get tossed in jail (bet you hadn't thought about appraising homes pledged as bail bond collateral - did you? - 24 hour turn time and 2x fee).
I managed to survive (barely) even during the Jimmy Carter era when interest rates were 15%.
Let all those other appraisers and appraiseretts belly up to the lender trough. My point is - diversify your practice and become the world's foremost authority on something.
You'll survive, Oregon Doug