Shaxton,
Let's say there is a 20 bay retail building on one corner and on the other corner is a 20 bay retail building. They were built in the same year, by the same builder, with the same architectural floor plans, with the same micro-locational characteristics, etc. Property A is fully occupied by local tenants averaging 7 year leases. Property B is vacant.
The most likely owner is an income investor who will value the cash flows on A and discount accordingly for the lease-up costs, etc., for B. In most markets, we agree that the A will be more valuable than the B. Especially in the last several years having tenants is much more desirable than not having tenants. I'd agree with you that, in most markets, even if the tenants have one day left on their leases or are month-to-month, property A due to renew probability is more valuable than B.
Now let's say that this property is circa 1995-2005 in gentrifying or rapidly renewing central Denver neighborhood. Which would you rather have? Property B's building can be gut renovated and re-tenanted with a higher rent tier business. You don't want any tenants in the building getting in the way of a quick and efficient renovation. At a certain point the most likely owner, the income investor, will switch from A to B as the most valuable investment. Property A-7yr is stuck with local tenants and cannot avail of the upswing in H&BU. Due to the time value of money the first 10 years constitutes a noteworthy portion (roughly one-third of the present value of an annuity factor occurs over the first ten years versus the capitalized into perpetual factor).
For example, Denver's most chic shopping district something exactly like this happened. The tenant sued the property owner who wanted to tear down the parking structure, and ultimately the entire shopping center. The court ruled for the tenant. Years later, soon after the tenant vacated, the developer constructed a mid-rise mixed-use building.
In the prior post I mentioned other examples like demolition. Another example would be if A's 7 year leases are severely below market. The fee simple might be much preferable to the positive leaseholds.
You are right that there are many circumstances where the property owner has paying tenants or their own company and can get to the FS rights quickly. .... going off-topic, it's interesting that there is "allodium FS" or "crown FS", often held by the government, not subject to the four powers of government. ...my first 4-5 years in R/E was dealing with title work for the gov't...
I think you are confusing correlation with causation. Occupied vs. unoccupied is not the same as leased fee vs. fee simple, even if the correlation is high.
Sincerely,
Tim