Why the New UAD is DOA

[Elliott]

"We are from the government and here to help you." (or, "AI--the Big Brother always looking over your shoulder.")

AI's take:

"AI Benefits in Single-Family Home Appraisal
• Faster completion of appraisal reports by automating data gathering and analysis.
• Increased accuracy and consistency through AI’s ability to identify local market trends and property details.
• Reduced revision rates due to UAD-compliant language and objective condition ratings driven by AI.
• Enhanced appraisal capacity allowing appraisers to handle more assignments without quality loss.
AI’s Role in Market Analysis and Property Condition
AI incorporates hyper-local trends, seasonal market changes, and property-specific characteristics such as roof type or presence of solar panels that are traditionally hard to quantify. These insights improve valuation accuracy beyond traditional appraisal methods, supporting lenders, buyers, and sellers with reliable data-driven decisions.

Conclusion
AI empowers appraisers using UAD 3.6 by automating labor-intensive tasks, ensuring compliance with new reporting standards, and enhancing valuation precision. While AI improves efficiency and output quality, it complements rather than replaces the appraiser’s expertise required for nuanced judgment calls in unique property situations.

This impact is illustrated by AI platforms like AIVRE, which reportedly save appraisers hours per report and significantly reduce revision rates, enabling quicker and more reliable single-family home appraisals compliant with UAD 3.6 standards ."

 

[Bobby Bucks]

AI is without question real and growing, but it’s also being exaggerated and oversold. The recent example with Dave Burry pointing out the flaws with Nvidia, Palintir, etc. is a good example. When he announced he was shorting it, their stocks tanked because Burry’s track record is well known, especially with credit default swaps in the mortgage scams. Without a doubt there are many AI hucksters in our industry: mortgage/Software/AMC/CE camps which includes the other AI (appraisal institute) that are constantly using fear tactics to sell their trinkets. When I see an email with AI in the subject line I know it’s from some “industry professional” trying to sell me something so I won’t be left by the wayside. I’m so fortunate the Buzz is looking out for me, are they looking out for you?

 

[Mark K]

If any of you were around in 2000, this has the exact same feel as the dot com bubble.

I agree, only it will be a slow-motion trainwreck this time. It won't be CDO's and MBS's that crash the real estate market, it will be job loss (partially AI caused), wages not keeping up with home prices, over-leveraged owners living off of their home equity in order to live beyond their means, massive credit card debt, etc.

Something akin to a debt tsunami.

 

[J Grant]

AI is being aggressively marketed and oversold since so many, as typical of the former dot com frenzy, so many jumped in and invested and now the tech bros have to deliver. The stock market is already on edge because the promised benefits from AI are years away, and some might never materialize. There are other fields where AI offers genuine promise (medical, military, science). Wrt business it is mainly about efficiency, but there is also tremendous backlash against AI from many sides - for good reason. Lots of downsides to AI, which are too numerous to post.

In appraising, it will have applications and be able to be developed as a tool for analysis etc, but I doubt it can just take over and "appraise" as some here imagine it could - they never explain how, of course. So far, my personal experience with AI is it is good for research but even there, all it does is consolidate - a few more clicks and I would have found the same information anyway. It is surprisingly bad at some basic tasks, btw. I see a big uptick in being flooded with advertising and emails- it turns me against those companies and I respond by blocking their emails and texts.

 

[Essexfenwick]

AI can replace Fannie and Freddie for a fraction of the cost.

Prove me wrong

 

[ZZGAMAZZ]

I believe AI has a real place in our office areas, and probably in some manufacturing settings. I like it when I'm looking up certain things. But as a realist, I don't think it will be the Terminator nor the Starship Enterprise of our futures.

Tell you one thing though, ChatGPT recently analyzed technical problems with my two cars that two independent Benz garages and one parts store with modern diagnostic equipment weren't able to do...and the AI did so in less time that I had to punctuate my query...

 

[ZZGAMAZZ]

AI is being aggressively marketed and oversold since so many, as typical of the former dot com frenzy, so many jumped in and invested and now the tech bros have to deliver. The stock market is already on edge because the promised benefits from AI are years away, and some might never materialize. There are other fields where AI offers genuine promise (medical, military, science). Wrt business it is mainly about efficiency, but there is also tremendous backlash against AI from many sides - for good reason. Lots of downsides to AI, which are too numerous to post.

In appraising, it will have applications and be able to be developed as a tool for analysis etc, but I doubt it can just take over and "appraise" as some here imagine it could - they never explain how, of course. So far, my personal experience with AI is it is good for research but even there, all it does is consolidate - a few more clicks and I would have found the same information anyway. It is surprisingly bad at some basic tasks, btw. I see a big uptick in being flooded with advertising and emails- it turns me against those companies and I respond by blocking their emails and texts.

JG, Thanks so much for reminding me about the dot.com bubble...which I personally burst in the Spring of 2001 by investing every damn penny I had including 15 years of retirement savings: 90% lost in one month. Sitting here now literally shaking my head wondering how that happened...not to mention a few thousand shares of AMZN that I just abandoned on ETrade because the shares declined so precipituously ... that would be worth $millions today but the shares got sold off one by one by one over the years to maintain the account servicing fees. Although I'm optimistic about the future of appraising, as well.........

 

[Mike Ault]

you say that - how long before the AI learns to shock someone who attempts to pull the plug?...

Or uploads a bunch of kiddy **** to their phone. And calls the law on them. The mere threat of that would keep the power flowing…

 

[Dale Floyd]

Tell you one thing though, ChatGPT recently analyzed technical problems with my two cars that two independent Benz garages and one parts store with modern diagnostic equipment weren't able to do...and the AI did so in less time that I had to punctuate my query...

I hear you, and it is that kind of direct and technical analysis that I believe AI has use. When it comes to opinions, however, I think AI will forever fall short.

AI may can analyze numbers, but it can't feel anything. There is no intuition. How can it appreciate what's seen or criticize what is smelled?

 

[Dale Floyd]

you say that - how long before the AI learns to shock someone who attempts to pull the plug?...

That gave me a chuckle. If AI is able to manipulate the entire electric grid to send a surge to my individual electrical outlet without flipping my breaker, just because it somehow anticipates I'm about to pull the cord out of the wall, then we will be truly living a great horror flick.