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Work quantity

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One foot and 4 toes out the door...but still very slow--2 orders this month. Again, I'd be turning most of them down anyway, but still interesting that no more than that are coming in. Every day positively reinforces my decision last April to depart this clown show.

What I have noticed is orders from any particular client simply stop. They don't phase out, they just stop. I am very sure it is not because of poor quality or slow turn time. Nor is it because my value was unpalatable to someone--those lenders do sometimes stop sending work too, but I am not counting those here.

What I am reasonably sure is happening is one by one lenders are going to alternate valuations, or the AMCs they use are getting larger staffs. I don't even get ANY bids anymore. The few orders I get are direct assignments. I have lost all but one of my direct lenders in the last 2 years. They all switched to the AMC model.

6 more weeks to my last assignment, which kind of means each one I do now COULD be my last ever appraisal.

I will curiously watch this industry starting in March to see if things ever come back. I will keep my credential active, cause this life has well taught me to not burn my bridges...who knows, if 1004s come back at $750, I could see doing a couple a week down the road. But I don't see that happening.
 
Well this is all dismal news that’s for sure! Was just hoping it was lack of inventory and high interest rates. Maybe not though!
 
EQUITY APPRAISAL GR said:
Was just hoping it was lack of inventory and high interest rates.
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Well, it is. But think this. Credit card debt is up and defaults have gone from 5.5% to 8%. Auto loan defaults are up. Late mortgage payments are up. Wages are not keeping up with inflation. People with low interest loans do not want to sell if they have to borrow at much higher rates. Payment monthly 30 years 3% v 6% 3= $1,260 on 300k plus insurance and taxes... 6? $1,790 plus. It is not a matter that it is higher. It is a matter that way too many people paid too much and in the process are already maxed out at $1,260 and probably have at least one car payment. But in 2018, the average house of $300,000 was barely bringing $200,000. If you bought then, then refi'd at 3%...you really cannot afford to sell even if you do make a $100k off the house you bought.

It's gonna be worse this year than Wall Street thinks, in my opinion. And if it is, then appraisers have to make a choice. Reinvest in their biz by adopting new software and tactics, upgrading their licenses and skills to CG level, specializing or otherwise getting the premium fees for premium reports (aka, either as expert testimony or otherwise upping the game with narrative software and complex properties.) Or, changing careers. Either seeking similar careers in insurance adjusting, underwriting, working for a bank, or just getting the L out of RE altogether. I mean, it isn't like getting a RE sales licenses will help. They are already dropping out like flies. Hard to cough up MLS dues when you've not sold a house in six months.
 
I think the maxed out credit cards at exorbitant rates have brought many people with low mortgage interest rates back to the table for new long term refi because though 3% mortgages with 0 credit card debt was sweet, I'm finding most of the refi's now are reflecting current mortgages below 4% and credit card debt at 20% to 35%/annum means that their monthly payments would go DOWN by rolling that cr cd debt into a 7% or 8% mortgage and spread that debt out to infinity. Hope they learned their lesson and stop using those high interest rate credit cards. I did appraisals on 2 situations just like that within the last 2 weeks. Considering mortgage interest rates have increased but are not in double digits, I'm thinking there is no justification for these cr cd companies to have rates around 30%. I saw a solicitation today for new pre-approved credit card for 35%/annum rate! A-M-A-Z-I-N-G !

Of course the question is, Why So Much Credit Card Debt Now? I thought unemployment rates were low and wages were up. Seems a lot of folks have slipped between the cracks and are lacking INCOME!
 
The answer is simple - ( as far as our volume) rates are still too high for most to want to refinance and combined with low inventory and high prices, there are few sales, combined with the fact that more sales are cash now and topically then do not order an appraisal. Ad to that the fact that Fannie and Freddie want to see appraisals marginalized and as such, enacted a waiver/value acceptance program which brings nothing to the table expert taking away a Portiu if appraisal work - nobody knows how much, IMO just based on local knowledge it runs 30- 40 %
 
I am in Florida. 2 reports so far this month. Very slow. was getting 8-10 for the past 6 months and even that was really slow for what I was typically getting at the start of the year.
 
frobro said:
I am in Florida. 2 reports so far this month. Very slow. was getting 8-10 for the past 6 months and even that was really slow for what I was typically getting at the start of the year.
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same, got in 3 bids, but I guess $325 with 1-2 day turn is TOO expensive. Did not receive the work.
 
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