Would you adjust the comps?

[Wendy]

for more giggles, I re-charted the manufactured on +2ac and adj the last sale for the barns. Adj for barns is only lamely supported, but it's the best data I have.

see attached.

It's a festival of garbage in, garbage out.

I'm thinking of using the 9% with a strong caution about the possible 30% included. Why? I kinda feel like I can defend that as being reasonable due to the larger set. I just don't feel comfortable defending adjustments based on such a small data for the manufactures.

OTOH, I really don't want to over appraise this thing either.

 

[Metamorphic]

IIWY, I'd put in 2 graphs. One would be a scatter plot with both the mfg. and stick built on it with no trend line, color the dots for each a different color. This graph would be the "full disclosure" part of the deal. Basically, here's what I'm working with, here's how the stick and mfg. compare. The second graph would be a line graph similar to what you've done but I'd do it by average price over the quarter (instead of by month) of both stick and mfg. together. The quarter averaging will help even out the big excursions in your current data set. Easy to do if you know pivot charts in excel.

If you've got the data I'd also go back another year at least. A lot of the noise in the graph goes away when you put it on a longer base line.