WSJ and Rocket Mortgage

[J Grant]

Desperate, sure. I'd say by the increasing CC debt levels and delinquency that the marginal portion is growing more than you might think.


What if they walk away? How long would one stay in an upside down asset with little skin in the game, even at a low rate?

I doubt they would walk away with a low rate because the rental alternatives are expensive and at least they own the house and can hope over time the appreciaiton will return. Because of those factors, imo we will not see the massive wave of defaults we saw in the last housing collapse.

Many who paid top $ also either paid cash or put down cash over the appraisal value ( in their sale contract) thus the lender is better protected even if prices sink - as far as the poor souls using CC debt to pay bills that is a problem but not as relevant to the housing market -

 

[alebrewer]

Refinance applications are down 85% from this time last year. Rates are to blame, but not just because it's more expensive to refinance. It's also because folks can't afford to swap rates right now. Read a stat yesterday that stated folks who would benefit from a refinance are down from the peak of 90M in mid-21 to some 300k - can't find the article, but it was published by Black Knight. Gonna take a minute for this to unwind...

 

[J Grant]

This was predictable - the party had to end sometime. Many people refinanced at the lower rates and unless something changes, they will not refinance again as long as they own the home.

Sales are way down so both appraisers and lenders have little business. At some point the sales logjam will break and sales will uptick again but in what volume idk. There will be pent up demand- will depend on rates to a large degree. Many sellers do not want to reduce price much -though there have been reductions.

Folks tend to forget the reason so many loans went belly up in the 2008 crash was because they based on were super low Teaser rates or ARM's/other exotic financing. Most of the recent past year plus low rate loans were plain vanilla 5-30 year fixed rate conventional .

Where we might (?) see orders is if bankers start shutting down HELOC lines of credit and want a value , or if after a X months they want to gauge any value decline in their loan portfolio .

 

[glenn walker]

Rocket the Detroit mortgage lender is in serious financial straits. In the current environment, and with the situation clearly worsening,

 

[Carnivore]

Het, I am not some smart Economist. Even they don't agree with each other

What does all of the below have to do with Today's Interest Rates? Plenty. The Feds have overheated our economy causing really high Inflation. T

Too many dollars chasing to few Goods. Printing Money/Future Huge Spending. Inflation is going to put people out of their homes.


What the cause for what happened leading up to 2008 is is not the cause for what's going to happen now. Looking Back at leading up to 2008 there was a push using federal policy to put people in homes. This was a Social Policy because Homeownership help create stable families. We had liar loans etc It got out of control. ypu'all know the history/

As I see it We came out of covid so interest rates were kept low to kick start and keep the economy going. If you remember we were also paying people not to work. Then the biggy hits with huge bill of future government spending(inflationary) Lot's of dollars chasing fewer goods. Then the 2nd Biggy hits and Ole Joe heavily restricts the energy sector. Shuts down Keystone. Cancels future Crude Oil leases and more and more. He Stops LPG shipments to Europe. all this is inflationary. Gas Prices Rise. Wonderful. Just Wonderful.

Refresher: https://www.brookings.edu/research/fed-response-to-covid19/

Ole Joe and his Totalitarians are beating us Chickens into submission all for the long range goal of eliminating Fossil Fuel Use.

Something to read: https://cleanet.org/clean/literacy/energy5.html

Here is the 2050 Plan: https://joebiden.com/clean-energy/# This is very Aggressive...... Presidents do set Lofty goals

Yep he is going to beat all of us Chickens into submission

 

[J Grant]

Het, I am not some smart Economist. Even they don't agree with each other

What does all of the below have to do with Today's Interest Rates? Plenty. The Feds have overheated our economy causing really high Inflation. T

Too many dollars chasing to few Goods. Printing Money/Future Huge Spending. Inflation is going to put people out of their homes.


What the cause for what happened leading up to 2008 is is not the cause for what's going to happen now. Looking Back at leading up to 2008 there was a push using federal policy to put people in homes. This was a Social Policy because Homeownership help create stable families. We had liar loans etc It got out of control. ypu'all know the history/

As I see it We came out of covid so interest rates were kept low to kick start and keep the economy going. If you remember we were also paying people not to work. Then the biggy hits with huge bill of future government spending(inflationary) Lot's of dollars chasing fewer goods. Then the 2nd Biggy hits and Ole Joe heavily restricts the energy sector. Shuts down Keystone. Cancels future Crude Oil leases and more and more. He Stops LPG shipments to Europe. all this is inflationary. Gas Prices Rise. Wonderful. Just Wonderful.

Refresher: https://www.brookings.edu/research/fed-response-to-covid19/

Ole Joe and his Totalitarians are beating us Chickens into submission all for the long range goal of eliminating Fossil Fuel Use.

Something to read: https://cleanet.org/clean/literacy/energy5.html

Here is the 2050 Plan: https://joebiden.com/clean-energy/# This is very Aggressive...... Presidents do set Lofty goals

Yep he is going to beat all of us Chickens into submission

This is all curated though your political view , including "ol Joe" , Totalitarians", etc. Try to keep your clearly partisan version of the economy out of appraisal topics It is not even your view, it is regurgitated FOX. You are not going to change anyone's mind at this late date for the mid terms.

 

[glenn walker]

This is all curated though your political view , including "ol Joe" , Totalitarians", etc. Try to keep your clearly partisan version of the economy out of appraisal topics It is not even your view, it is regurgitated FOX. You are not going to change anyone's mind at this late date for the mid terms.

You never know he may find one Woke Willy who reads his stuff on November 7 and says you know what I'm going broke and it's all the Democrats Fault- Each New Disciple is gotten one at a time

 

[TerryRohrer]

Rocket the Detroit mortgage lender is in serious financial straits. In the current environment, and with the situation clearly worsening,

Just another of the non-bank lenders with no assets (profits are safely tucked away in the Cayman Islands) that the gseS and regulators have allowed to prosper in order to maintain their volumes. Why have capital requirements when taxpayers are on the hook for all the risk. I have thought most of these entities will simply disappear in the depths of the downturn.

 

[Carnivore]

I wonder what will happen or how Home Financing will look in the future. For example we have low income housing and it is financed many different ways. USDA/FMhA loans are now made without an appraisal. If we look forward thinking Green Construction then rural homes for lower income peeps will be subsidized and there will be no appraisal;

They already waiver appraisals now.

Will the Government eliminate the Traditional Lender in those areas? No Appraisal!

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

My prediction is, regardless of which party prevails in mid terms, my prediction is inflation will tamp down in the spring and the FED will reduce rates enough to see mortgage rates go back below 7%....but many will be hit with a huge jump in property taxes ...We are in the Hangover phase after the big drunken party... the problem arises if they need to sell, or tap into non existent equity for a HELO/other .

Am afraid that is a rather lucid post. I'm probably only 50/50 on the first part, if things go as planned the Fed may be able to back off a bit - but I think is very dependent upon Russia, gas and oil supplies (which Biden is dead wrong about), and employment but if these trillion dollar spending programs are not eliminated we will see hyper-inflation. So the real issue is by pulling in US companies to make more stuff in America (Biden is touting "Made in America" after dissing Trump for doing the same...amusing) do we avoid massive layoffs? If so the recession will be shallow...even with high fuel prices. EVs are not going to save us. The Fed won't save us. But maybe all in all bring it back to earth in a declining population (outside illegals who don't contribute much to the economy anyway.)

I don't think the property tax issues has hit yet but it will. There is a lag in revaluation, then taxation. My nephew finance company added over $400 a month to his payment just to adjust for property taxes and insurance this year... it was a shock to him.

Yeah, the party is over for the time. I thought after the burning so many people got in 2008-11, that they'd be cautious about jumping back into high dollar property. But I guess they all bought into what a Realtor told me in 1979 when i was house hunting, "They only made so much Real Esate." Well, true. But he's dead, his son is younger than me and retired, and neither one got rich in real estate either. So I don't think it makes much sense to repeat a mistake, but it happens.

Will the Government eliminate the Traditional Lender in those areas? No Appraisal!

The government is over-involved in real estate. Before the FDIC insured bank accounts in the 30s, the safest and soundest banks were far more conservative and had private insurance. They didn't take the risks that government insured banks could take and the result was the S & L crisis. The bank take overs of the 80s was a warning sign ignored and then repeated in 2008-11 with far greater consequences. If we escape another such crisis...we will be lucky.