WSJ and Rocket Mortgage

[glenn walker]

Getting a little scary -I think the worst I ever saw in 38 plus years is a drop of about 40% but did not last long.

 

[Joe Flacco]

If you compare number of mortgage applications today to 2017-2019 then it is a drop of about 30% since 2017-2019. It is 90% decline since the pandemic highs because mortgage applications increased 300% from the 2017-2019 range.

 

[TerryRohrer]

Even at the height of the pandemic, mortgage applications were well below the peaks prior to the great recession. During the same period, the number of housing units increased by 19%, from 119.63 million to 141.95 million units. And the population grew by a slightly smaller 17%, from 282.2. million to 331.9 million. Since the number of unique appraiser licenses has been essentially stable during that period (per Freddie study posted elsewhere) it seems the "shortage" of appraisers is likely a function of the layers of crap added to the typical SOW during this period. All the gains in efficiency through new technologies has been more than absorbed by the opposite of the shrinkflation observed in many consumer products. Call it "pufflation"...expanding SOW accompanied by a likely shrinking fee in real terms!

 

[Elliott]

The 'shortage of appraisers' narrative which created the need for PAREA should be considered officially dead and not necessary.

 

[djd09]

the exact words from a broker today was "we are so screwed"

 

[Sadie]

This was predictable - the party had to end sometime. Many people refinanced at the lower rates and unless something changes, they will not refinance again as long as they own the home.

Sales are way down so both appraisers and lenders have little business. At some point the sales logjam will break and sales will uptick again but in what volume idk. There will be pent up demand- will depend on rates to a large degree. Many sellers do not want to reduce price much -though there have been reductions.

Folks tend to forget the reason so many loans went belly up in the 2008 crash was because they based on were super low Teaser rates or ARM's/other exotic financing. Most of the recent past year plus low rate loans were plain vanilla 5-30 year fixed rate conventional .

Where we might (?) see orders is if bankers start shutting down HELOC lines of credit and want a value , or if after a X months they want to gauge any value decline in their loan portfolio .

There is already pent up demand here. But with the rates increasing like they are, buyer are hesitant. And finally I do see prices falling in some (not all) areas.

 

[glenn walker]

There is already pent up demand here. But with the rates increasing like they are, buyer are hesitant. And finally I do see prices falling in some (not all) areas.

There is pent up demand in Beverly Hills but I'm short $10 MILLION to get a nice little 1930s Bungalow. lol

 

[Essexfenwick]

This should be a great reset of the US economy like the early 80s which set up the country for decades of boom times. Unfortunately today any prolonged discipline would bankrupt the government. It looks like the road the unaffordable government kicked the can down has come to an end. Three choices 1) government default. 2) hyper-inflation or 3) scrap the dollar and start over with assets destroyed and started over.

 

[djd09]

Mat Ishbia predicts new refi boom ahead​

Rising rates will usher in new wave as early as next year, UWM chief says

Mat Ishbia predicts new refi boom ahead

Rising rates will usher in new wave as early as next year, UWM chief says

www.mpamag.com

i cant stop laughing yeah sure refi at 7 when you got 2 what an idiot

 

[TerryRohrer]

Mat Ishbia predicts new refi boom ahead​

Rising rates will usher in new wave as early as next year, UWM chief says

Mat Ishbia predicts new refi boom ahead

Rising rates will usher in new wave as early as next year, UWM chief says

www.mpamag.com

i cant stop laughing yeah sure refi at 7 when you got 2 what an idiot

I saw a quote from a mortgage broker that said, "trying to sell a 7 1/4% mortgage to someone with a 3% mortgage is like trying to push a rock uphill." Ya think?