You think 4% is slow, what about 5%?

[George Hatch]

Some market segments will enter and be close to leaving an RE bust before others even enter.

 

[Joe Flacco]

Forget what you have seen or think you know. It's wrong.

 

[Joe Flacco]

Growth has been declining since the 80's.
Rates have been declining since the 80's.

These are just the facts. Everything we have experienced and know is based on these facts. Decades of declining growth. What is possibly happening today, high growth and increasing trend in rates is something most of us have not experienced before. For sure none of us have experienced the turning of this trend before. If it is even happening. A lot of evidence suggests that it is happening but not yet confirmed. Time will tell.

Except maybe Mike Kennedy. I think he said he was like 90.

 

[ucbruin]

"Except maybe Mike Kennedy. I think he said he was like 90."

I don't personally know Mike but I do believe he once mentioned that he was born in '53....
And based on his music offerings....
I think he would be under 70....
90 yo, he'd have grown up listening to Al Jolson....

BTW....
Is he still posting....

 

[jay trotta]

Growth has been declining since the 80's.
Rates have been declining since the 80's.

These are just the facts. Everything we have experienced and know is based on these facts. Decades of declining growth. What is possibly happening today, high growth and increasing trend in rates is something most of us have not experienced before. For sure none of us have experienced the turning of this trend before. If it is even happening. A lot of evidence suggests that it is happening but not yet confirmed. Time will tell.

Except maybe Mike Kennedy. I think he said he was like 90.

In the 80's I remember 14% rates that climbed higher, of course most housing was in the under 200k mark (not counting the high-end custom)

 

[George Hatch]

Growth has been declining since the 80's.
Rates have been declining since the 80's.

These are just the facts. Everything we have experienced and know is based on these facts. Decades of declining growth. What is possibly happening today, high growth and increasing trend in rates is something most of us have not experienced before. For sure none of us have experienced the turning of this trend before. If it is even happening. A lot of evidence suggests that it is happening but not yet confirmed. Time will tell.

Except maybe Mike Kennedy. I think he said he was like 90.

I was already a CG when rates first dropped below 10% and everyone went into a frenzy. Matter of fact, it was some years after that when the dot.bomb went off in the face of those people who were saying "this is the new normal and the old rules don't apply". It was those investors fleeing to RE that built the boom that was in swing when you took your first Appraisal 101 course. And which you still seem to think was "normal".

I don't know what will happen going forward, but I've been around long enough to know that "this is the new normal" has been predicted several times before and it hasn't panned out that way yet.

 

[J Grant]

I think the wild card in this one is usually a rise in interest rates leads to less demand and a growing housing supply - but because so many bought or refinanced at the very low rates, they will not sell unless for compelling reason - so what will a market with higher rates but still tight supply look like ?

 

[Joe Flacco]

I was already a CG when rates first dropped below 10% and everyone went into a frenzy. Matter of fact, it was some years after that when the dot.bomb went off in the face of those people who were saying "this is the new normal and the old rules don't apply". It was those investors fleeing to RE that built the boom that was in swing when you took your first Appraisal 101 course. And which you still seem to think was "normal".

I don't know what will happen going forward, but I've been around long enough to know that "this is the new normal" has been predicted several times before and it hasn't panned out that way yet.

Yeah. So all you know and have experienced is slowing growth and declining rates. Everything you know and have experienced is based on these two facts.

 

[George Hatch]

I'm not sure that the interest rates will even be the biggest factor.

- Boomers are withdrawing from employment AND they are aging out of the high-consumption periods of their life. A large percentage of the boomers living in the metro areas either don't have the means and/or don't have the interest to stay in town. If your kids are all scattered across the nation then what's your incentive to stay in town?

- The rise of the gig economy and the further erosion of job security. 'Nuff said.

- This last work-from-home experiment has proven that more employment can be sourced to remote workers. If a remote worker is living in a lower priced area it doesn't take as much income to keep up with the Jones. If you're raising a family your priorities are different than if you're single and think it's important to be near "interesting dining and entertainment" choices. Not everyone aspires to live on Uber Eats.

- Marriage rates and births are in decline, which means fewer nests to buy and feather for everyone AND less male support for retail consumption (men can be content with much more modest living arrangements and much less retailing).

- If enough men decide to go MGTOW then those guys have no incentive to rack up student loan debt in order to qualify for a job they hate working in the female dominated cubicle farm the despise only to support a house they're rarely at home to enjoy. Most men don't get baby rabies, and even the ones that do aren't constrained by the use-by-35 fertility window that women have to deal with.

- If a major war breaks out and does a number on the global economy that could either be a good thing for America's economy or a bad thing, depending which nations engage and where these wars are fought.

None of these are the stuff of pure speculation. I don't know what will/won't happen, but the chances are that it might be a mistake to assume that none of them will pan out that way.

 

[George Hatch]

Yeah. So all you know and have experienced is slowing growth and declining rates. Everything you know and have experienced is based on these two facts.

"declining rates" have not occurred on the natural basis. Our monetary policy (direct meddling participation by the govt) has been one of the primary factors and there definitely is a natural limit to how low they could go. The whole QE circus has also been a big factor and is also unsustainable. Everything YOU know is based on THOSE two facts; you've never experienced anything different.