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Un supported adjustments

Before you use any method to arrive at an adjustment, you need to understand the methodology. Standard 1 says in part that you must understand and correctly employ recognized methods and techniques. If you don't know how adjustments are derived, perhaps you shouldn't use that method.
 
This discussion reminds me of Jesuit priests discussing "how many angels can dance on the head of a pin?". Pointless esoterica. Appraisals for areas where there is enough conforming sales activity to actually isolate & quantify month-to-month market appreciation/declines in a credible manner will certainly be performed by GSE AVMs. Appraisers operating in the rest of the world will now have to deal with newly minted "underwriters" demanding to see that Freddie Mac graph somewhere in the report and nonlinear market change adjustments with no smoothing on the grid. It would help if the GSE's could disseminate a lesson in statistics alongside their expectations in this regard, including what constitutes a "statistically valid sample size" prior to demanding a granular analysis thereof.
 
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That is NOT what the chart illustrates. Not at all.
It looked that way to me. How else could one month show 4% and then another month 2% and a next month flat, and each month moves in sync with the price of sale A, B and C?

Idk how else to read it - what trend program is so sensitive that it can show a reliable 4% up or down one month then 2%, the next month, then flat the next month?
the time frames are so short

Normally, a trend last for several months or six months, or a year or longer.
The exception is when a market makes a sudden turn, or there is a good benchmark of when a trend stops, such as prices were rising for 5 months and then the market went flat for 4 months, and then began rising..

Normally, there are not month-to-month measurable changes.
 
Normally, there are not month-to-month measurable changes.
of course there are. It just takes enough data points to confirm that it really is a delta in the market, as opposed to outliers skewing the trend.
 
This discussion reminds me of Jesuit priests discussing "how many angels can dance on the head of a pin?". Pointless esoterica. Appraisals for areas where there is enough conforming sales activity to actually isolate & quantify month-to-month market appreciation/declines in a credible manner will certainly be performed by GSE AVMs. Appraisers operating in the rest of the world will now have to deal with newly minted "underwriters" demanding to see that Freddie Mac graph somewhere in the report and nonlinear market change adjustments with no smoothing on the grid. It would help if the GSE's could disseminate a lesson in statistics alongside their expectations in this regard, including what constitutes a "statistically valid sample size" prior to demanding a granular analysis thereof.
If they make the exact same or similar software available, we can provide it.

If not, then we can only provide what we can have access to.
Though IDK if an AVM could creidhly crate such short term time snetive adjutmsens and if so, are they even beneifial in a messy and imperfect market.
 
of course there are. It just takes enough data points to confirm that it really is a delta in the market, as opposed to outliers skewing the trend.
Then we need to ask what valuation is - a math problem that uses "data points," many of them not similar to the subject and in a program, many of them not verified, or is it a market value, with the most similar comps used and local market conditions considered to develop a MV opinion?

Imo, a lot of this is jut profiteering for the sake of income to tech companies, software providers, or GSE's with much time on their hands now that appraisal volume is reduced. They have to spend their time doing something, and tweaking a chart to show a fraction more accuracy of a statistic is one way to do it,

Math can always be read back to prove itself as "accurate", but if it misreads the market, what did it accomplish?
nd what person can tell, than a highly trained programmer / experienced appraise who is too expensive to use, whether it misread the market?.
 
Even if the chart is based on a reaction to data and not to the individual comp sale prices, the overly sensitive or month-to-month different rates of adjustments are price-oriented, not market-value-oriented.
 
So what does an avm tell us about how it got that adjustment, what it looked at, what it ignored, why it did that, what it didn't use, etc, etc,... The answers is 'crickets'
But like no other profession, we have to explain it all for the small fee that we already get.
No wonder i have gone back to my start of fixing and flipping days.
If avm is so good, why do we need realtors to give a listing price, just have CU set the value, period. Just kidding Realtors, hahahah.
Underwriters who assume they know better than the appraiser, are a different kettle of fish however. They're mostly unaccountable. One told me in an underwriter training class in 2004, that she'd just have appraiser delisted by AMC if they come with the attitude of being correct or right! She said she needed to protect her lender, and the appraiser was standing in the way. I was a minority in the class, because I took the class by Mortgage Bankers Association, to try to understand the underwriters' thinking. As an appraiser, it was like a goat in the midst of a pride of lions... easy lunch. I wish I'd given them a perspective they didn't know then, in retrospect. I failed myself out of fear.

Sometimes, even the best data defies logic. For instance, appending time of sale adjustment, in a subdivision-market, with 4 sales in 7 months and 1 sale in 3 months, that has increased by 73% in values in one year, but no sales since 2020. No sale above $150K. That's adequate data from subdivision. Unless we're values shopping, data in subdivision meets the law of the report's requirements. To append or not to append time of sale adjustment can be simple, or difficult, depending on the beliefs of the appraiser, not the underwriter, and it ought to be respected. There's a reason why the two professions have different names. Why subjugate the opinion of one, albeit imperfect, to that of another, also imperfect? Just musing.

Now AMCs are very, very, very scared of underwriters. Especially the opinionated ones, who believes she's the supervisor in the appraisal process, you will not win that argument. I never stop trying to remind them that my report has to have reflections of my writing style and opinions, and they hate that. But I'm sure if more of us can push back respectfully, such people will pull back a little. That way we save other appraisers from being their victim in the future, and they pretty much would leave you alone after that. Leaving you to wonder what was that all about!

Most AMCs however, a large plurality of them, have put in place internal safeguards for the process that protects against abusive practitioners. Two decades on, I have written three AMCs to remove my name from their list used for advertisement to potential clients, and they responded respectfully, with affirmation of the removal, I have no way to corroborate, but that's okay.

Feedback helps us all. Respectful feedback, articulately rendered, does wonders. Because you've made it about them and the process, not about the fee appraiser. Respectfully submitted.
 
the overly sensitive or month-to-month different rates of adjustments are price-oriented, not market-value-oriented.
Well, mathematically, the fact real estate is an imprecise market means small data sets can be and usually are distorted by the irregularity of the market. While seasonality is a given, are we expected to adjust down simply because of 2 or 3 sales in May? And overall, what's "accurate" - 1 week time change? One month? 3 months? six months? The more data the more you can smooth the trendline.
 
Well, mathematically, the fact real estate is an imprecise market means small data sets can be and usually are distorted by the irregularity of the market. While seasonality is a given, are we expected to adjust down simply because of 2 or 3 sales in May? And overall, what's "accurate" - 1 week time change? One month? 3 months? six months? The more data the more you can smooth the trendline.
Calling each property unique, and only a small number are relevant to the subject "data points" or data sets are part of the problem.

My market, fortunately, is not seasonal; however I think it is inane to adjust a short time for a seasonal high because what happens to a property the rest of the year ?

All this artificial precision becomes about prices and not market value - since raw prices are fact, but and MV is a conceptual model of value based on analysing the facts, trends, the subject itself etc etc
 
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