Honey Bees and Market Valuation

[Hamlet]

Did he say 4 or 5? Oh, it doesn't matter, because he also said:

If the facts don't fit the theory, change the facts.

Ummmm, what?

 

[Lawrence R.]

Killer Bees to save mankind?

Maybe the africanized bees will end up being our savior...in about 4 or 5 years, they will have moved into Texas and California pretty widely.

In a few more years, they will be replacing the weaker, mite susceptible bees, no?

Just in time for a killer to save us all?

 

[Mztk1]

Yeah, Einstein said some funny stuff, after all he came up with a pretty whacky theory where he really did change the facts in order to prove it.

"What if," he asked himself, "the speed of light was the constant and not time?"

Turns out he was right on that one.

But what made him make the statement on facts had to do with what he considered his biggest blunder. In 1915 when he worked on his gravitational theory, the universe was believed to be fixed and evenly distributed with matter. Einstein's theory however caused the universe to not quite settle down to a rested state, so he introduced what he called "the cosmological contant", this fixed his theory to fit perceived reality - it evenly distributed matter in a fixed universe. Years later it was discovered that the universe is actually expanding, which if you remove the constant the equation would have approximated the growth rather nicely.

So, Einstein said, "If the facts (rested universe) don't fit the theory (general relativity), change the facts (to expanding universe).

Science is a lot less dogmatic than appraising...that's why we're an art.

 

[PropertyEconomics]

Yeah, Einstein said some funny stuff, after all he came up with a pretty whacky theory where he really did change the facts in order to prove it.

"What if," he asked himself, "the speed of light was the constant and not time?"

Turns out he was right on that one.

But what made him make the statement on facts had to do with what he considered his biggest blunder. In 1915 when he worked on his gravitational theory, the universe was believed to be fixed and evenly distributed with matter. Einstein's theory however caused the universe to not quite settle down to a rested state, so he introduced what he called "the cosmological contant", this fixed his theory to fit perceived reality - it evenly distributed matter in a fixed universe. Years later it was discovered that the universe is actually expanding, which if you remove the constant the equation would have approximated the growth rather nicely.

So, Einstein said, "If the facts (rested universe) don't fit the theory (general relativity), change the facts (to expanding universe).

Science is a lot less dogmatic than appraising...that's why we're an art.

The thread isnt about Einstein ... the question is has any one seen a decline in commercial agricultural properties related to the decline in the bee population in America?

 

[Caterina Platt]

So, Einstein said, "If the facts (rested universe) don't fit the theory (general relativity), change the facts (to expanding universe).

Science is a lot less dogmatic than appraising...that's why we're an art.

Sorry PE. I just can't let this part pass, even though it continues off topic.

Jim,

The problem with that statement is that the 'rested universe' was a theory and NOT a fact. A fact is something that is known to be true. No one can prove a rested universe theory, nor can we prove evolution (or declining farmland values due to bees, apparently ) At this point, all of the above would be theories.

Einstein's statement would have to be taken tongue in cheek.

Come to think of it, when you do a paired sales analysis, your resulting adjustment amount is based on theory. Not just basic appraisal theory, but your own theory that the reason for the difference in sale price is because of the presence or lack of a particular feature (or market reaction considering 'time' for instance). So, appraising would be back a science. It's all theory.

 

[Mike Boyd]

Is anyone seeing a decline in property values for vegetable or fruit farms because of a drop in production due to the decline of the Honey Bee population in America?

Sweet, PE, but a sticky problem in farm country, I presume.

 

[Mztk1]

The thread isnt about Einstein ... the question is has any one seen a decline in commercial agricultural properties related to the decline in the bee population in America?

Chill PE.

Just was replying to Donna's "ummmmm" post.

 

[Mztk1]

Sorry PE. I just can't let this part pass, even though it continues off topic.

Jim,

The problem with that statement is that the 'rested universe' was a theory and NOT a fact. A fact is something that is known to be true. No one can prove a rested universe theory, nor can we prove evolution (or declining farmland values due to bees, apparently ) At this point, all of the above would be theories.

Einstein's statement would have to be taken tongue in cheek.

Theories/Facts, yeah, yeah. Scientifically speaking it is only a theory that the earth revolves around the sun too. "Theory" in science means a lot more than it means in the general public. Nothing disturbs me more to hear the mantra that "Evolution is just a theory".

My point about Einstein's comment, whether tongue in cheek or not, is a kiddng on the level way of pointing out that using his words is a an appeal to authority when of course he was a physicist not a zoologist or ecologist. You could quote Peter Jennings, or your significant other, on the subject with as much authority. But since Einstein has obtained "Uber-genius" (couldn't help using the Uber word), i.e., superhero status, quoting him is supposed to serve as a form of proof. My comment points out his humanity, and shows us a quote most appraisers would disagree with. It is a tactic that promotes critical thinking.

Personally, the bee thing concerns me like it does most of us. I am interested in hearing if anyone has measured its effect on the market, which is why I keep coming back to the thread. but if other markets are like mine I'd have to think it is a difficult thing to measure.

 

[c w d]

The thread isnt about Einstein ... the question is has any one seen a decline in commercial agricultural properties related to the decline in the bee population in America?

....not that I'm qualified to partake in this thread....

I would think such a relatively new phenomenon would be difficult to attribute to declining agricultural land prices. You'd have to quantify the disappearing bee's effect on crop production and measure that against previous levels. Another question is what effect is the ethanol craze having on this particular farm? Is this farm capable of producing these higher price yield crops or are you seeing the craze wane and crop prices falling as well? What about the effect of current and rising fuel prices on this farm? Is this farm large enough to offset the rise in prices with modern equipment and techniques and volume as opposed to a smaller farm with older equipment (i.e. less volume more fuel costs)? Are the crops they're specializing in increasing in value (back to the ethanol effect) or stabilized or in decline due to over production and the shift towards more lucrative crops.

Unless one is specialized in agricultural appraisals and has access to that kind of data I would think it would be impossible for another more generalized appraiser to determine. I'm sure there are more factors that need to be considered than someone such as myself is able to know. But, to measure the effect of bees on land value will require the elimination of all other pertinent factors' effects on value.

....an interesting tangent thought just crossed my mind. Could the missing bees be a life saver for agricultural pilots. Could crop dusters be used to pollinate crops through an aerosolized pollen?

 

[PropertyEconomics]

Personally, the bee thing concerns me like it does most of us. I am interested in hearing if anyone has measured its effect on the market, which is why I keep coming back to the thread. but if other markets are like mine I'd have to think it is a difficult thing to measure.

Mr Klos my guess is that the decline in population is such a relatively new occurance that it may not be reflected in the market yet, however, I was curious thus I asked the question. I further suspect that we will see more effects on value in the future, but again, that is merely a theory on my part.