How Long Do You Think It Will Be?

[Restrain]

Every market is LOCAL. How many times as appraisers do we have to say this? Where will the next crash occur? Where there are declining populations and outwards migration ( NJ, IL). These would be my best guess. Texas, Florida, Arizona nope, continued job growth and inwards migration.

When the bust hit CA, NV, FL, Texas wasn’t impacted. Banks were hurt because of leveraged loans heavy in those areas, but housing costs outside of certain areas were not impacted.

 

[Randolph Kinney]

Top mortgage officers can make millions of dollars a year pitching government-backed loans to borrowers with weak credit or low incomes. And home prices are rising quickly.

The top is near when the marginal borrower is the target.

 

[gregb]

Top mortgage officers can make millions of dollars a year pitching government-backed loans to borrowers with weak credit or low incomes. And home prices are rising quickly.

The top is near when the marginal borrower is the target.

And when flippers start teaching flipper courses and stop flipping.

 

[Tom Woolford]

How long?. I got my first REO order in 7 years from one of the big five. I'd say right now.

 

[ucbruin]

How long?. I got my first REO order in 7 years from one of the big five. I'd say right now.

 

[George Hatch]

Aren't these almost always wrong though?

I wasn't commenting on how right or wrong these economists are about the timing; I was commenting on what it takes to spook the herd.

The event that triggers a change in the irrational thinkers' attitudes doesn't have to make sense, and in the past they usually haven't. That's the whole point of irrational exuberance - it wasn't based on any good reasons to begin with and the switch can flip for little/no good reason. It's a blade that cuts both ways, not just one way.

 

[George Hatch]

You guys need to stop reading the news.

Here's the problem with your perspective. You haven't ever been there and done that the way we have. We were way out in front of the last market correction and history has proven both our perspectives and ALL of the reasoning behind it to be completely right. Meanwhile, all the guys who were saying the same things then that you're saying now were later proven completely wrong. They skulked out of here, never to return.

So, if I were you I wouldn't indulge too much in the idea that "it hasn't happened yet so it's not going to happen". You may come to regret it.

 

[timd354]

How long?. I got my first REO order in 7 years from one of the big five. I'd say right now.

One REO order is meaningless in the overall scheme of things. While the default rate has been very low for new originations since 2010, it has not been zero. I don't know whether or not there will be a crash in the future, although I am pretty sure there will be some sort of market correction if and when interest rates rise substantially, however, the exact timing of when any coming market correction will occur and the size of the correction is very, very difficult to predict

 

[Joe Flacco]

Here's the problem with your perspective. You haven't ever been there and done that the way we have. We were way out in front of the last market correction and history has proven both our perspectives and ALL of the reasoning behind it to be completely right. Meanwhile, all the guys who were saying the same things then that you're saying now were later proven completely wrong. They skulked out of here, never to return.

So, if I were you I wouldn't indulge too much in the idea that "it hasn't happened yet so it's not going to happen". You may come to regret it.

Nothing is crashing until there is no SHORTAGE okay? "ALL of your reasoning" will show up in active listings increasing which indicates SHORTAGE is easing. Until there is no SHORTAGE there is no point talking about a bust or a crash.

 

[techbiker]

We were way out in front of the last market correction and history has proven both our perspectives and ALL of the reasoning behind it to be completely right.

If someone keeps saying "There will be a crash" every month for years and years, eventually he will be right. Even a stopped clock is right twice a day...