How Long Do You Think It Will Be?

[Joe Flacco]

From Trulia, historical price trend shows median price is at a new high :

View attachment 35495

Yep, price does not relate to listings as being in short supply. Yes, price appreciation brings on new supply. What is driving the price? The ability to buy as well as the desire to buy. Think that will change anytime in the next 2 years?

Why is that important?

If we can see active listings too that would be great.

It is important because once it breaks out to highs there are no more people underwater from the prior highs. As in distressed dries up. Almost no more short sales. looking at price chart only in Carlsbad looks like ready to take off to me. Carlsbad median price breaking out of 12 year base.

 

[Randolph Kinney]

From Trulia, historical price trend shows median price for Brevard, NC :



Is there a problem here? A new high and a roll off? Plenty of inventory.

 

[Randolph Kinney]

If we can see active listings too that would be great.

Joe, the sold volume tells you that indirectly because those were listings. Active listings are current on market, you don't know if they will sell or be taken off market.

It is important because once it breaks out to highs there are no more people underwater from the prior highs. As in distressed dries up. Almost no more short sales. looking at price chart only in Carlsbad looks like ready to take off to me. Carlsbad median price breaking out of 12 year base.

So why are 15% of the current listings distressed?

 

[Joe Flacco]

From Trulia, historical price trend shows median price for Brevard, NC :

View attachment 35498

Is there a problem here? A new high and a roll off? Plenty of inventory.

Yeah. Your county not breaking out yet.

 

[Joe Flacco]

Joe, the sold volume tells you that indirectly because those were listings. Active listings are current on market, you don't know if they will sell or be taken off market.

So why are 15% of the current listings distressed?

I don't know. Let's see if those distressed listings dry up going into next year.

 

[residentialguy]

Although it sounds completey absurd and crazy today, I know for an absolute fact that the reason that the time period columns at the topic of the 1004 MC are broken down into only 3 time periods (current - 3 mos; 3-6 mos., and 7-12 mos) is that the scanners and software that Fannie utilized at the time to collect and aggregate data (nothing involving appraisals was done elctronically back then) were only capable of reading and capturing 3 columns worth of data.

So why didn't they break the columns down to 4 mos each so that they each represent a 1/3 of a year, rather then trying to compare a 1/2 year to two 1/4 years?...and then add another 3 column (4 mo each) for the prior year? Then you could see trends happening.

 

[Joe Flacco]

4 half years would probably have been okay too. They were probably thinking comps in reports typically go back 12 months so 12 months is all they need.

 

[residentialguy]

4 half years would probably have been okay too. They were probably thinking comps in reports typically go back 12 months so 12 months is all they need.

I agree.. that would eliminate the spikes of seasonality and other anomalies. You can't define a real market direction in less time, anyway.

 

[Joe Flacco]

From Trulia, historical price trend shows median price for Brevard, NC :

View attachment 35498

Is there a problem here? A new high and a roll off? Plenty of inventory.

You are still working off excess. If I had to guess you guys probably do something like this. Probably got a a couple years to go.

 

[Randolph Kinney]

So Joe, using Trulia and Bankforeclosuresale.com did you know that there 1319 distressed listings currently in the Phoenix market?

From Trulia, historical price trend shows median price for Phoenix, AZ :



Up up and away!