How Long Do You Think It Will Be?

[h.rodriguez]

My guess is 2 years. Get your receivables in order before then!
https://accountsreceivable.com/place-claim.html

But seriously, 2-3 years is my guess. The Federal Reserve has been tightening its monetary policies, that's a red flag. Other countries have been doing the same (U.K., Germany, etc.)

 

[BRCJR]

The MC analysis is designed to measure a specific market segment. I only included provision for analyzing up to 500 records at a time so it's not suitable for analyzing the 39,000 sales we racked up in 2005. That's not a cop-out

Could the information be exported to an excel spreadsheet?

 

[Randolph Kinney]

Based on what I know about places that are like that in my area, that is a area still working off the excess from 2007. Prices are probably not back to highs there. Why are you using Trulia anyways. Why don't you talk about data from your market.

Because I live in North Carolina. Trulia is something everyone has access to.

The zip code for Brevard, NC is 28712. Trulia shows 585 listings, 24 are distressed sales. 283 homes sold in the last 9 months. Prices are increasing.

So with such an excess of listings over sold homes, how come prices are not decreasing?

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

Eight straight quarters of yoy price

Momentum trading works until it doesn't...then you cannot get out fast enough 9 of 10 times. It will lock up big time. On?y the lucky can preserve their gains.

 

[Joe Flacco]

Because I live in North Carolina. Trulia is something everyone has access to.

The zip code for Brevard, NC is 28712. Trulia shows 585 listings, 24 are distressed sales. 283 homes sold in the last 9 months. Prices are increasing.

So with such an excess of listings over sold homes, how come prices are not decreasing?

I don't know how to use Trulia.

 

[Randolph Kinney]

Based on what I know about places that are like that in my area, that is a area still working off the excess from 2007. Prices are probably not back to highs there. Why are you using Trulia anyways. Why don't you talk about data from your market.

From Zillow, a 10 year history trend of prices in Carlsbad, CA zip code 92009.



Actually, prices have exceeded historical highs in zip code 92009.

So 15% distress listings represents what? Current market? Any trouble coming, ya think?

 

[Randolph Kinney]

I don't know how to use Trulia.

Math wiz, hey?

 

[Joe Flacco]

From Zillow, a 10 year history trend of prices in Carlsbad, CA zip code 92009.

View attachment 35494

Actually, prices have exceeded historical highs in zip code 92009.

So 15% distress listings represents what? Current market? Any trouble coming, ya think?

Has it exceeded highs? That chart starts from 2009, the bottom.

That chart by itself doesn't provide enough information to come to any kind of conclusion. You can't just look at price and say "it's too high, it can;t go any higher". Trust me, it can go higher.

If Carlsbad is one of the earlier places to decline then it was probably one of the harder hit areas. So assuming prices declined 30% or so there, seems like prices might be right around back to the highs there. Maybe just breaking out higher in the last year or so?

 

[The Bob]

Reading this thread you see just how different each market is.
Maybe you west coast guys have had your view colored by how many times your market has crashed. Around here, we've had slow markets, but nothing ever like 2008.
My market is like Flaco's. I've had one contract in the past year with DOM over 10 days. 90% of what I see is 2-5 DOM. I track year to data listing and pending's and in some areas that's down 20-40% from year ago levels and this is in markets that were tight last year. I'm in my 6th decade on this rock and one thing I've learned is that although history repeats, it's always with enough difference to fool the masses.

 

[Randolph Kinney]

Has it exceeded highs? That chart starts from 2009, the bottom.

From Trulia, historical price trend shows median price is at a new high :

That chart by itself doesn't provide enough information to come to any kind of conclusion. You can't just look at price and say "it's too high, it can;t go any higher". Trust me, it can go higher.

Yep, price does not relate to listings as being in short supply. Yes, price appreciation brings on new supply. What is driving the price? The ability to buy as well as the desire to buy. Think that will change anytime in the next 2 years?

Maybe just breaking out higher in the last year or so?

Why is that important?