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How Long Do You Think It Will Be?

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Joe Flacco said:
I don't know how to make sense of the number of closed sales vs the number of active listings you are stating. I don't think you are lying and I don't have the data to look into it myself, so I have to give it the benefit of the doubt. But it does not make sense to me that your prices are increasing and DOM is in the teens and is declining with one year supply currently on the market.

One thing I do notice about the median price data in some areas in my market is that declining percentage of distressed sales results in increasing median price when actual values are often not increasing.
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One item of clarification - these are not annual numbers; these are the 5-month periods during each of these years so I can compare YTD2018s performance against the others.

Distressed sales haven't been at all common in SD County for several years now, so that's not the thing over here. Median prices ARE obviously still increasing, and I don't pretend to know when that will end; just as I don't know if the 2018 slowdown in volume is a blip or the beginning of something else. So far it's just an observation that volumes are down, which is exactly what has happened prior to the market transition in the past. I can remember those previous events right down to the months they occurred in prior cycles; 03/1990 for that cycle, and 05/2005 for the more recent one. The reason I was seeing them in real time was because I was specifically looking for them to occur at some point - we just couldn't foretell quite when.

Medium DOMs for the closed sales are low (13 DOM in the first 5 months of 2017 and 2018, vs 17 for 2016). But the median DOMs for pendings is "up" to 14 DOM, and the median for the current actives is twice as long (33 days DOM). Obviously these are not long periods of 4 and 6 months but if we're looking at the rate of *change* it could mean something.

As with everything else in our line of work, these views on market trends are opinions to be developed, not truths to be assumed.

As for trusting analyses performed by NAR's pet economist or most of the other industry analysts; thanks but no thanks. Those guys are not exactly known for their impartiality.
 
George Hatch said:
One item of clarification - these are not annual numbers; these are the 5-month periods during each of these years so I can compare YTD2018s performance against the others.

Distressed sales haven't been at all common in SD County for several years now, so that's not the thing over here. Median prices ARE obviously still increasing, and I don't pretend to know when that will end; just as I don't know if the 2018 slowdown in volume is a blip or the beginning of something else. So far it's just an observation that volumes are down, which is exactly what has happened prior to the market transition in the past. I can remember those previous events right down to the months they occurred in prior cycles; 03/1990 for that cycle, and 05/2005 for the more recent one. The reason I was seeing them in real time was because I was specifically looking for them to occur at some point - we just couldn't foretell quite when.

Medium DOMs for the closed sales are low (13 DOM in the first 5 months of 2017 and 2018, vs 17 for 2016). But the median DOMs for pendings is "up" to 14 DOM, and the median for the current actives is twice as long (33 days DOM). Obviously these are not long periods of 4 and 6 months but if we're looking at the rate of *change* it could mean something.

As with everything else in our line of work, these views on market trends are opinions to be developed, not truths to be assumed.

As for trusting analyses performed by NAR's pet economist or most of the other industry analysts; thanks but no thanks. Those guys are not exactly known for their impartiality.
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My mistake. So it sounds like you are at about 4 or 5 months supply now.

upload_2018-5-30_10-59-11-png.35564


Based on this, 3.8 months is lower than 90's "before the boom" and you are at 4/5 months and if I had to bet it is declining. So we can agree that 3.8 months is definitely shortage?

BTW, David Blitzer is not the NAR pet economist and the months supply at 3.8 months and lower than 1990's is a FACT that he is stating. That is not a opinion. That is not the NAR pet economist. If you read the article, the pet economist is actually saying what you guys are saying about affordability. So you are the one on the side of the pet economist. :)

Anyways, I think your county is headed for shortage if not already there.
 
Randolph Kinney said:
View attachment 35573 View attachment 35574

Seems like Flaco's market areas are not the bell weather for the rest of the country.
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So my area is lagging or is it leading? Make up your mind son!

BTW thanks for putting me on the Trulia price charts. I like how it goes back to 2000. My source only goes back 10 years and I don't like how I can't see 2006/2007 anymore.
 
I'm going to have to email smartcharts and tell them to fix the site so it can go back to 1990.
 
Randolph Kinney said:
Neither. You have plenty of underwater mortgages which means even if those people wanted to sell, they can't. That is holding back supply until they default in which case new supply comes on market.
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Yeah. That is a area that probably still has a ways to go to work through the distress.
 
In its latest effort to reach first-time homebuyers, Freddie Mac is launching a new 3% down payment program that casts aside a number of restrictions in its existing low down payment offerings.

The program, called HomeOne, doesn't have income caps or geographic limits like previous 3% down programs. But one of the borrowers on the loan must be a first-time homebuyer and the property type is limited to a one-unit primary residence.

Its current low down payment program, Home Possible, is capped at a 95% loan-to-value ratio, except for the Home Possible Advantage loan that goes to a 97% LTV. However those loans are subject to income limits.

90


In January, the first-time homebuyer share of purchase loans at Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae was 48.1%, the highest level since the turn of the century, according to Urban Institute estimates. Over the same period, the Federal Housing Administration share of first-time buyers remained relatively flat in the 80% range; in January it was 82%. The combined GSE and FHA share in January was 58.9%.

A separate study by private mortgage insurer Genworth found 157,000 loans to first-time homebuyers in the fourth quarter of 2017 used private mortgage insurance, compared with 167,000 that were insured by the FHA.

https://www.nationalmortgagenews.co...mits?tag=0000015a-753a-df45-adde-7f7ef1b30000

Not a good sign. The GSEs also lowered the credit score from 660 down to 620.
 
upload_2018-5-30_15-4-39.png


George - This is basically the disagreement between you and me. You think the move from the lows is the "boom". I think the "boom" follows recovery.
 
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