Do We Predict Or Not?

[Overimprovement]

Predict, from Merriam's dictionary: to declare or indicate in advance; especially : foretell on the basis of observation, experience, or scientific reason.

Let's at least agree on the definition. Every definition I saw carefully notes something in the future. We cannot predict current value. Its an oxymoron.

 

[Meandering]

Let's at least agree on the definition. Every definition I saw carefully notes something in the future. We cannot predict current value. Its an oxymoron.

And you are predicting the value today, based on sales that happened yesterday and beyond. But if you have sales that closed today, you're up late at night typing, and you're abilities to verify with disinterested parities should be applauded loudly.

Predict, from Merriam's dictionary: to declare or indicate in advance; especially : foretell on the basis of observation, experience, or scientific reason.

 

[Overimprovement]

And you are predicting the value today, based on sales that happened yesterday and beyond. But if you have sales that closed today, you're up late at night typing, and you're abilities to verify with disinterested parities should be applauded loudly.

No, you are not. Predict by its very definition implies something IN THE FUTURE. Saying what something is worth TODAY based on what happened YESTERDAY is not predicting, unless you are going by a different definition.

Sorry, but I am a stickler for words--they have clear meanings, despite how they may be inaccurately used by people.

 

[Meandering]

No, you are not. Predict by its very definition implies something IN THE FUTURE. Saying what something is worth TODAY based on what happened YESTERDAY is not predicting, unless you are going by a different definition.

Sorry, but I am a stickler for words--they have clear meanings, despite how they may be inaccurately used by people.

today, is the future,
based on your historic data.

.

 

[Meandering]

Today is the future,
because you are looking at today,
based upon what happened yesterday
with no data for today,

so
if you owned the world trade center, and early in the morning you said it was worth $9billion on September 11, based upon historic income and sales, and then by lunch, you found it wasn't even worth land value,

it is still today, but your opinion was a prediction of today.

.

 

[Overimprovement]

today, is the future,
based on your historic data.

.

Read USPAP, its pretty clear on what today, tomorrow, and yesterday mean relating to appraising.

Looking outside and stating that it is raining because you see rain drops hitting the ground is not predicting. Saying that it WILL be raining in 10 minutes based upon your observations of current conditions is PREDICTING.

Saying today is yesterday's tomorrow does not make right now the future. No more than saying today is tomorrow's yesterday makes it the past.

 

[Meandering]

Read USPAP, its pretty clear on what today, tomorrow, and yesterday mean relating to appraising.

Looking outside and stating that it is raining because you see rain drops hitting the ground is not predicting. Saying that it WILL be raining in 10 minutes based upon your observations of current conditions is PREDICTING.

Saying today is yesterday's tomorrow does not make right now the future. No more than saying today is tomorrow's yesterday makes it the past.

Answer the world trade center value problem for 9/11.


and think about all the properties that have not burned up in California this morning but will be gone by nightfalll.

.

 

[Mike Kennedy]

Effective Date is "present" or "past" or "future" -.........................it depends.

 

[Mr Rex]

I don’t predict the future unless the SOW requires it (ERC) etc But it’s hardly a stretch to call an opinion of value in a non existent sale for the typical refi as a “prediction” of “the most probable price” . Appraisers are likewise trained to avoid the term “estimating” when it is both an estimate, prediction, and more simply an opinion of value...based on estimating and prediction based on historic sales data and current market trends. In any case, I will not loose sleep over the use or misuse of similar terminology that means less than zero in the overall scheme of things. Too much time on your hands and obsessive focus on crap like this. Volunteer for meals on wheels delivery just one day a week and get a fing life.

 

[Gobears81]

I'm on Team Marion with this one.

For owner occupied properties, which include single-family residences, the price that they pay is still the present value of future anticipated benefits, only it is an intangible benefit consideration followed by a reversionary value (resale price), which would nonetheless require a thorough market analysis. If the largest employer in town unexpectedly closed one week prior, you have a gap in market data which requires some prediction. If a potential homebuyer thinks that the employer closing will result in a mass exodus of population, their reversionary value/ resale value predictions would naturally result in a drop in today's value. As our job is to emulate the market, it is necessary for us to make the same predictions for the future.