So I asked ChatGPT a question about our profession...

[Bobby Bucks]

A word of warning, the new form being discussed, criticized and maligned is not a form at all. Anyone calling the new form a “form” will face disciplinary action and will be contacted by their PDC.

 

[DTB]

Maybe I don't get your point. .8" is more accurate than an inch or tenth of a foot. And not to disparage your measuring skills, but no one is doing exterior ANSI measurements accurately to the nearest tenth of an inch.

What impact on GLA and value would being .8" off even have? Why do you think that is so terrible?

I am no fan of appraisers' livelihood going away, but if these products truly can measure that accurately, I'm darn impressed.

Me thinks it's a decimal point issue in those posts. At least I hope so, because the house isn't even built to those standards

 

[sputnam]

A lot of recent reports about AI chatbots lying and/or telling people what they want to hear. ChatGPT was among those named in the reporting I heard.

Having said that, you'd have to have your head in the sand not to have noticed that few, if any, of the mandated changes in the appraisal industry, benefit appraisers.

 

[bluechip]

This isn’t fear of tech. It’s recognition of a pattern. Waivers, hybrids, third party data collectors, UAD 3.6. The goal is clear. Remove judgment. Remove liability. Remove us. Some of you are more offended that ChatGPT stated it than by what it actually said. That says a lot. It didn’t invent the trend. It mirrored what’s been unfolding for years. If that bothers you, maybe it hit too close. This isn’t about AI being right. It’s about appraisers being pushed out while some of you clap like it’s progress. Keep pretending if you want. The rest of us see it for what it is. Devaluation by design.

 

[bluechip]

When you ask GROK to be "truthful" instead of sugar coating this is what you get: The blunt reality: UAD 3.6 will drive a wave of appraisers out, maybe 20-30% of the residential crowd within a year, based on the vibe in the trenches. The profession won’t die, but it’ll shrink hard, leaving behind the desperate, the hyper-specialized, or those with enough grit to game the system (like bypassing AMCs). For most, it’s a signal to start planning your exit now—whether that’s a new career, a niche pivot, or just cashing out while you can. The system’s not here to save you; it’s here to squeeze you dry.

 

[Essexfenwick]

When you ask GROK to be "truthful" instead of sugar coating this is what you get: The blunt reality: UAD 3.6 will drive a wave of appraisers out, maybe 20-30% of the residential crowd within a year, based on the vibe in the trenches. The profession won’t die, but it’ll shrink hard, leaving behind the desperate, the hyper-specialized, or those with enough grit to game the system (like bypassing AMCs). For most, it’s a signal to start planning your exit now—whether that’s a new career, a niche pivot, or just cashing out while you can. The system’s not here to save you; it’s here to squeeze you dry.

Every white collar job that manipulates data, numbers, stats.... Diagnoses...reads...investigates...calculates..appraises ....legally evaluates...litigates...or sits at a computer for any time whatsoever is in the same boat.

What's the niche pivot?

 

[J Grant]

Every white collar job that manipulates data, numbers, stats.... Diagnoses...reads...investigates...calculates..appraises ....legally evaluates...litigates...or sits at a computer for any time whatsoever is in the same boat.

What's the niche pivot?

White collar professionals don't manipulate data; they might use data in varying degrees depending on the profession. Each profession is unique, however Appraisal on the residential lending side are in their own brand of special ( and not in a good way), because since we are the ONLY part of appraisals regulated that a client can not order the service directly, and there is a HUD bundled fee allowed at closing, the only segment of a profession where third party predators ( AMC;s ) could strip as much as half the fee and keep it for a small service that is FREE to lenders, giving the AMC 's a huge market share. The original intent of the HVCC was decent, but it was corrupted when regulators allowed lenders to own their own AMC and allowed AMCs to conduct their own C and R fees instead of using the original government and retail lender side fee surveys.

I challenge anyone to find a profession so negatively impacted by fees with regard to the residential mortgage side, where appraisers literally lost their clients overnight after HVCC . and then were asked to work for those same clients by third-party AMCs who would take a huge cut of the fee. Some appraisers left the business, or left the mortgagee lending side, or struggled for years to get enough private or direct lender orders to stave off working for AMC's. But not all could manage to do that.


Fast forward to today- the WAIVER product has stripped an estimated 20% of volume from appraisers and it might be higher. (it is difficult to get a straight answer on the percent ) Add in that other volume has gone to hybrids, and up to 30% of volume might be lost.. That can translate to 20-30% appreciation will be starved out since ther is no volume of private work to make up for the loss. Mortgage lending work is finite as well, but it has and continues to be the bulk of res appraisal work.

So yes, some appraisers should think proactively of existing and a number are or already have. That might put some remaining appraisers in a better position with fees, but not by much, as long as the AMC is allowed to be compensated from a portion of the appraiser fee. Some appraisers can find work at a county assessor office, and some work on staff for an AMC - yuck, but to each their own.

I personally do not think that AI can do an appraisal ( only a human can since an appraisal is an opinion). I don't even think AI will be very good at the other work it is supposed to replace us for. AI can only replace so much as other professions are finding. I think it will recede when a lot of it turns out to be hype - while it does well in some fields, it is poorly suited to others, or only suited to a specialized task. AVM and regression are already well developed as they can be used for their own segment of work in valuation. With a limited use as well - these types of products and appraisals integrate or compliment each other, not replace each other.

 

[Essexfenwick]

White collar professionals don't manipulate data; they might use data in varying degrees depending on the profession. Each profession is unique, however Appraisal on the residential lending side are in their own brand of special ( and not in a good way), because since we are the ONLY part of appraisals regulated that a client can not order the service directly, and there is a HUD bundled fee allowed at closing, the only segment of a profession where third party predators ( AMC;s ) could strip as much as half the fee and keep it for a small service that is FREE to lenders, giving the AMC 's a huge market share. The original intent of the HVCC was decent, but it was corrupted when regulators allowed lenders to own their own AMC and allowed AMCs to conduct their own C and R fees instead of using the original government and retail lender side fee surveys.

I challenge anyone to find a profession so negatively impacted by fees with regard to the residential mortgage side, where appraisers literally lost their clients overnight after HVCC . and then were asked to work for those same clients by third-party AMCs who would take a huge cut of the fee. Some appraisers left the business, or left the mortgagee lending side, or struggled for years to get enough private or direct lender orders to stave off working for AMC's. But not all could manage to do that.


Fast forward to today- the WAIVER product has stripped an estimated 20% of volume from appraisers and it might be higher. (it is difficult to get a straight answer on the percent ) Add in that other volume has gone to hybrids, and up to 30% of volume might be lost.. That can translate to 20-30% appreciation will be starved out since ther is no volume of private work to make up for the loss. Mortgage lending work is finite as well, but it has and continues to be the bulk of res appraisal work.

So yes, some appraisers should think proactively of existing and a number are or already have. That might put some remaining appraisers in a better position with fees, but not by much, as long as the AMC is allowed to be compensated from a portion of the appraiser fee. Some appraisers can find work at a county assessor office, and some work on staff for an AMC - yuck, but to each their own.

I personally do not think that AI can do an appraisal ( only a human can since an appraisal is an opinion). I don't even think AI will be very good at the other work it is supposed to replace us for. AI can only replace so much as other professions are finding. I think it will recede when a lot of it turns out to be hype - while it does well in some fields, it is poorly suited to others, or only suited to a specialized task. AVM and regression are already well developed as they can be used for their own segment of work in valuation. With a limited use as well - these types of products and appraisals integrate or compliment each other, not replace each other.

If you look on college message boards everybody is asking what to major in for a career that won't be a waste of time or money or isnt in the AI steamroller path.
Nursing and schoolteacher seem to be the only consistent ones agreed upon. Medical school costs too much time and money to take the chance.

 

[bluechip]

White collar professionals don't manipulate data; they might use data in varying degrees depending on the profession. Each profession is unique, however Appraisal on the residential lending side are in their own brand of special ( and not in a good way), because since we are the ONLY part of appraisals regulated that a client can not order the service directly, and there is a HUD bundled fee allowed at closing, the only segment of a profession where third party predators ( AMC;s ) could strip as much as half the fee and keep it for a small service that is FREE to lenders, giving the AMC 's a huge market share. The original intent of the HVCC was decent, but it was corrupted when regulators allowed lenders to own their own AMC and allowed AMCs to conduct their own C and R fees instead of using the original government and retail lender side fee surveys.

I challenge anyone to find a profession so negatively impacted by fees with regard to the residential mortgage side, where appraisers literally lost their clients overnight after HVCC . and then were asked to work for those same clients by third-party AMCs who would take a huge cut of the fee. Some appraisers left the business, or left the mortgagee lending side, or struggled for years to get enough private or direct lender orders to stave off working for AMC's. But not all could manage to do that.


Fast forward to today- the WAIVER product has stripped an estimated 20% of volume from appraisers and it might be higher. (it is difficult to get a straight answer on the percent ) Add in that other volume has gone to hybrids, and up to 30% of volume might be lost.. That can translate to 20-30% appreciation will be starved out since ther is no volume of private work to make up for the loss. Mortgage lending work is finite as well, but it has and continues to be the bulk of res appraisal work.

So yes, some appraisers should think proactively of existing and a number are or already have. That might put some remaining appraisers in a better position with fees, but not by much, as long as the AMC is allowed to be compensated from a portion of the appraiser fee. Some appraisers can find work at a county assessor office, and some work on staff for an AMC - yuck, but to each their own.

I personally do not think that AI can do an appraisal ( only a human can since an appraisal is an opinion). I don't even think AI will be very good at the other work it is supposed to replace us for. AI can only replace so much as other professions are finding. I think it will recede when a lot of it turns out to be hype - while it does well in some fields, it is poorly suited to others, or only suited to a specialized task. AVM and regression are already well developed as they can be used for their own segment of work in valuation. With a limited use as well - these types of products and appraisals integrate or compliment each other, not replace each other.

You're spot on that no other white collar profession had its client base stolen overnight and handed to a cartel of third party middlemen under the guise of firewalls and compliance. HVCC was the Trojan horse. The AMC model was the real virus and the regulators opened the gates. No attorney, CPA, engineer or architect would tolerate a system where a for profit gatekeeper hijacks half their fee, offers no value, and then gaslights them into thinking it's normal. Yet appraisers bent the knee and here we are.

Now we're watching the second act with waivers, hybrids, and UAD 3.6 setting the stage for mass data strip mining. And while they dangle AI as the next big thing, it's just the next justification to push us out and automate the illusion of credibility.
This isn't about adapting. It's about calling out the structural sabotage of an entire profession and deciding whether to keep enabling it.
Until AMCs are removed from fee skimming and lenders are forced to pay us directly again, nothing improves. The game is rigged.
Appraisers didn’t fail to pivot. They were boxed in by design.

 

[J Grant]

If you look on college message boards everybody is asking what to major in for a career that won't be a waste of time or money or isnt in the AI steamroller path.
Nursing and schoolteacher seem to be the only consistent ones agreed upon. Medical school costs too much time and money to take the chance.

Of course they are asking and of course it will impact, however, appraisals are in their own category on the res lending side wrt regulaitns and third party AMC fee issues.