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Housing Bubble?


Home sales drag across U.S., while Bay Area is nation's hottest market​

Home sales this spring have been dragging in most U.S. housing markets compared to last March — dipping 2.4% nationwide.

But, of course, the Bay Area's housing market has never been like the rest of the country's.

In March, the region posted the biggest leap in annual home sales in the U.S., highlighting the relentless demand among buyers, despite the economic uncertainty that has dulled enthusiasm elsewhere.

"The Bay Area, with its strong economy, is not as vulnerable to high mortgage rates or market fluctuations," said Daryl Fairweather, chief economist at Redfin, the online real estate brokerage.

The boost in sales comes as hundreds of sellers decided to list in March, raising inventory across the Bay Area by 35% from last year. New listings rose 19.3% in Oakland, 17.3% in San Jose and 12.6% in San Francisco.

That's despite high interest rates, which have hovered around 7% and kept homeowners from wanting to give up their 3% pandemic-era interest rates to move.

"The lock-in effect is finally starting to wear off," Fairweather said.

The increase in available homes has kept prices steady in much of the Bay Area, according to the California Association of Realtors. The median sales price in March rose just 1% from last year to $1.4 million. The median price was $907,0000 in Contra Costa County, $1.38 million in Alameda County, $1.7 million in Marin County, $1.8 million in San Francisco, $2.1 million in Santa Clara County, and $2.3 million in San Mateo County. Santa Clara, with its booming artificial intelligence industry, had the biggest price gains of those six counties, increasing 11.3% from last year.

Many buyers in the Bay Area aren't even reliant on a mortgage — in San Francisco, 26.5% of buyers bought in all cash, and in San Jose, it was 18%, according to Redfin.

Homes are still selling quickly. Single-family homes spent a median time of just 13 days on the market in the Bay Area — the least amount of time for any region in California. Still, that number varies from county to county: homes in Santa Clara County sold in a median of eight days, whereas they spent 49 days on the market in Marin County.

Fairweather, the Redfin economist, said that return-to-office policies among Silicon Valley tech companies are driving the stronger market in San Mateo and Santa Clara counties. Bay Area white-collar workers are spending about three days a week in the office, recent survey data shows.
 
Are we at the beginning?


 
You will know when it pops, right now it's a slow leak. Lol
 
Median values have been stable, with typical seasonal up/down adjustments, for 3 straight years. Pandemic peak was around January, February 2022, prices declined in the second half of 2022, and have been stable since.

So, at least down here in South Texas, I'm not seeing a bubble.
 
Does your market have DOM in months? That's unheard of here.
It's like two weeks DOM here. Been like that for long time more than 10 years as I can remember.
 
Prices in the U.S. condo market reported their second largest year-over-year drop on record in May, according to a new report by Redfin—falling by 2.2 percent compared to a year earlier.

In May, the latest data available, the median sale price of a typical condo in the U.S. was $354,100—almost as low as in spring 2023, when the country was facing a significant correction and condo prices plunged by 2.9 percent.

Condo prices are falling because sales have shrunk in recent months as inventory surged. According to Redfin, there are about 80 percent more sellers than buyers in the condo market. Many of these sellers are trying to offload their properties to avoid rising homeowners association (HOA) fees and home insurance premiums, the same reason keeping buyers away from these listings.

Seven of the 10 U.S. metros with the largest price declines in May, according to Redfin, were in the Sunshine State
Crestview, Florida (-32 percent); Houston, Texas (-23 percent); Oakland, California (-20.3 percent); Tampa, Florida (-19 percent); Cape Coral, Florida (-15.9 percent); North Port, Florida (-15.5 percent); Naples, Florida (-11.4 percent); Orlando, Florida (-11.4 percent); Ann Arbor, Michigan (-11 percent); and Austin, Texas (-11 percent).
 
Tom D said:
Prices in the U.S. condo market reported their second largest year-over-year drop on record in May, according to a new report by Redfin—falling by 2.2 percent compared to a year earlier.

In May, the latest data available, the median sale price of a typical condo in the U.S. was $354,100—almost as low as in spring 2023, when the country was facing a significant correction and condo prices plunged by 2.9 percent.

Condo prices are falling because sales have shrunk in recent months as inventory surged. According to Redfin, there are about 80 percent more sellers than buyers in the condo market. Many of these sellers are trying to offload their properties to avoid rising homeowners association (HOA) fees and home insurance premiums, the same reason keeping buyers away from these listings.

Seven of the 10 U.S. metros with the largest price declines in May, according to Redfin, were in the Sunshine State
Crestview, Florida (-32 percent); Houston, Texas (-23 percent); Oakland, California (-20.3 percent); Tampa, Florida (-19 percent); Cape Coral, Florida (-15.9 percent); North Port, Florida (-15.5 percent); Naples, Florida (-11.4 percent); Orlando, Florida (-11.4 percent); Ann Arbor, Michigan (-11 percent); and Austin, Texas (-11 percent).
Click to expand...
I'm up 25% since I bought in July 2022
 
OSU Beavers said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1927882049030865320
Click to expand...
My father told me a similar story that happened in the 1960s or 1970s. It was a condo development where several owners got together. Party A would sell to Party B for well over market. Then B would sell to C, and so forth. This was a time when loans were assumable. Eventually every owner got their original unit back but now the “comps” supported more than 100% of true value for refinancing. Pops never did say if his institution caught it on the front end or if/when foreclosures took place.
 
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