ASC numbers

[George Hatch]

There is no alternative timeline where every one of these developments would not have eventually occurred. They were ultimately inevitable. Only the timing and sequence might have varied.

 

[J Grant]

There is no alternative timeline where every one of these developments would not have eventually occurred. They were ultimately inevitable. Only the timing and sequence might have varied.

Why was it inevitable that the GSEs would replace appraisals with a WAIVER?

A Waiver is not a high-tech item. It involves running some data analytics on the GSE end and then letting a lender or borrower write in their own value estimate, or using the CS price as the value. It was a policy decision the GSEs chose to see more deals go through on the lender side.

 

[glenn walker]

Technology is advancing so fast it's inevitable that traditional appraisals will be used less and less and by 2030 it may be completely different.

Unfortunately for luddites there's no slowing it down at this point in time and best to build a business model using and embracing technology.

 

[J Grant]

Technology is advancing so fast it's inevitable that traditional appraisals will be used less and less and by 2030 it may be completely different.

Unfortunately for luddites there's no slowing it down at this point in time and best to build a business model using and embracing technology.

WAIVERS are low-tech. What is advanced tech about a borrower or lender writing in their own estimate of value for a property?

I agree we can and should embrace technology. I don't believe AI can replace an appraiser; an appraiser can use it well or poorly.

 

[DWiley]

What is advanced tech about a borrower or lender writing in their own estimate of value for a property?

Nothing. The high tech is in the analytics that evaluates that number. It has been my experience that very few appraisers have any idea how AVMs (and other models that are used) actually work.

 

[George Hatch]

WAIVERS are low-tech. What is advanced tech about a borrower or lender writing in their own estimate of value for a property?

Nothing. The high tech is in the analytics that evaluates that number. It has been my experience that very few appraisers have any idea how AVMs (and other models that are used) actually work.

I don't know how anyone can read that comment about the analytics and fail to grasp how the decision maker is making their decision.

 

[TerryRohrer]

Not a failure to grasp. An intent to mislead, by her own admission.

• Data Poisoning: Users systematically flood online spaces with specific phrases or false information to deliberately corrupt the future training data of AI models.

 

[Vermonter]

Why was it inevitable that the GSEs would replace appraisals with a WAIVER?

A Waiver is not a high-tech item. It involves running some data analytics on the GSE end and then letting a lender or borrower write in their own value estimate, or using the CS price as the value. It was a policy decision the GSEs chose to see more deals go through on the lender side.

Simple. A borrower with a higher credit score and more down payment is less of a risk than a borrower with a lower credit score, less down payment and an appraisal

Been saying forever that the improved tech behind automating valuations is only ONE of the concerns for appraisers. Tech advances on the borrower risk assessment side are why waivers are on the rise and will probably be more impactful to us in the long run.

It was always inevitable.

 

[George Hatch]

Just the improvement of the quality and availability of the data has enabled some of this evolution. The tech cannot compensate for inadequate data quality/quantity.

 

[J Grant]

Nothing. The high tech is in the analytics that evaluates that number. It has been my experience that very few appraisers have any idea how AVMs (and other models that are used) actually work.

AVM's were around for a decade or more before the Waivers were approved. Very few appraisers, or anybody, have an idea of how the AVM works. That is what makes them less trustworthy. Since almost nobody understands how they work, what is the trust based on with them? An AVM has a confidence score (typically) about the value estimate, so even the tech of the AVM is warnignt atht it is not 100% accurate or infallible.

What is the value range, for example, for a 400k range property that gets an AVM before getting a waiver approval? Is the value range of the AVM (if 400k is the point value esimate - or is it just a range/? ...is the AVM a tighter range of 380k-420k, or a very broad range from 370k-450K?

Does anybody outside of Fannie or Freddie see these AVM;'s to know how broad the tolerance range is for the lender or borrower estimate, or where the SC price fits in?

Regardless of the fact that an AVM was done , the borrower or lender is still estimating a value for the property that lets the deal work (or the CS is used), and the borrower or lender estimate or SC price might not be a credibly supported MV of the property.