Not to any correlated scale, but below is the dynamic as I see it.
The yellow zone is where something other than a traditional 1004 (or traditional appraisal) is needed and allowed. The green zone has been where a traditional appraisal is needed and required. The red zone is where the collateral value doesn't matter because the borrowers cannot qualify for traditional financing due to reasons outside of the collateral value.
The "less than a 1004" valuation-tool zone (yellow) is expanding.
While there is the potential to stop or reverse its expansion via regulation, I think it is fair to say the chances of reversing expansion are slim.
What I think we can do is advocate for limits to the expansion. But that is going to be a non-stop firefight because the pressure to expand the less-than-1004 zone will be present and only a significant financial crisis will stop its momentum.
The questions (IMNSHO) appraisers who work in the traditional residential mortgage market (green zone) should ask themselves are these:
1. If my green zone is shrinking, what should I do about it?
2. If the yellow zone is expanding, is there a service-opportunity within that expansion-space that makes financial sense for me to pursue?
What is ironic in my diagram above (and, not everyone is going to see it the way I do) is if the yellow zone expands due to better risk management and analytics, then maybe the red zone will shrink (shift right), and loans that are not made today might be made tomorrow and will really need a traditional appraisal. The irony (from my perspective) is that I think it will be much riskier for appraisers to complete assignments in what is now in the red zone vs. taking on a hybrid assignment in what is now the green-but-turning-to-yellow zone. Will assignments higher on the risk* ladder pay more than assignments lower on the risk ladder? I doubt it (we'll have little clue where, in the risk-spectrum that requires a 1004, our particular assignment falls).
*The credit "risk" may have nothing to do with the complexity of the appraisal assignment.