3.6 Crunch Time

[J Grant]

That's right. We can't tell from where we're operating how the values from the [data-driven analytics] waivers are comparing to the values from the 1004s.

But we do know who does have access to both sides of that data and who can make those direct comparisons. Who can run their AVM and compare it to the outcome of the 1004. We also know how that user has been acting when it comes to authorizing and using that waiver program.

Only one side ( the GSEs) has access to both sides of the direct comparisons, so no one knows if the studies or conclusions are self-serving or not?

Does a waiver even have an AVM performed? They seem to avoid saying AVM and instead call it data analytics. An AVM is a valuation, and if I recall correctly, in a waiver, the claim is that no valuation was performed.

If the interest of transparency, then any loan made with a WAIVER would see it recorded on MLS and public records so that RE agents, appraisers, the public, lenders, anyone could see it and make their own comparisons. The way a cash sale, an FHA-financed sale, or a conventional sale is disclosed. A waiver often falls under conventional or FHA, but the weird parameters of value make it a subclass of its own.

 

[J Grant]

I commented on how appraisers analyze the comparable data they use everyday (what the market participants actually do) as a parallel to observing how the lenders and other users - and appraisers - act IRL (also what people actually do).

As in, what should be being immaterial to what is.

Sorry, my friend, but I pointed out that the ten commandments of the bible ( and nearly every other facet of human behavior, rules, law,/policy/standard and custom )which occurs in the space of what is and the aspiration of what should be, or what could be.

If humanity had stayed at the WHAT IS level, we would still be living in caves. Which might not be such a bad thing. And perhaps caves is might be where a lot of us will end up after AI takes over.

 

[George Hatch]

We operate in the economic environment which exists. Not the environment which doesn't exist.

As for GSE usage of their AVMs, what else do you think they are referring to when they use the term "data driven" analytics prior to making their decision? Why would they build an AVM and then not use it?

One more thing to keep in mind; when we say they need accurate Market Value that doesn't actually mean the same thing as when they say they need a supportable Mortgage Value. Especially when they structure their arrangement on deferring responsibilty for the loan decision away from them and onto the originating lender.

Sift the verbiage a little:

My AVM = My responsibility for the decision​

Your estimate = your responsibility for the decision (even if I first ran it through my AVM before accepting the deal)​

 

[djd09]

That's right. We can't tell from where we're operating how the values from the [data-driven analytics] waivers are comparing to the values from the 1004s.

But we do know who does have access to both sides of that data and who can make those direct comparisons. Who can run their AVM and compare it to the outcome of the 1004. We also know how that user has been acting when it comes to authorizing and using that waiver program.

users abusers...or our competition make up your mind

 

[djd09]

We operate in the economic environment which exists. Not the environment which doesn't exist.

As for GSE usage of their AVMs, what else do you think they are referring to when they use the term "data driven" analytics prior to making their decision? Why would they build an AVM and then not use it?

One more thing to keep in mind; when we say they need accurate Market Value that doesn't actually mean the same thing as when they say they need a supportable Mortgage Value. Especially when they structure their arrangement on deferring responsibilty for the loan decision away from them and onto the originating lender.

Sift the verbiage a little:

My AVM = My responsibility for the decision​

Your estimate = your responsibility for the decision (even if I first ran it through my AVM before accepting the deal)​

we who

 

[George Hatch]

users abusers...or our competition make up your mind

 

[TerryRohrer]

I just keep wondering if they are applying outdated tech to current day hardware and networking? I'm not a tech guy.. I mean aren't zip folders about at least 6 years ago? UAD will be delivered as zips?

6? PKWare in 1989.

 

[djd09]

if you can't correlate waivers and rapid increase in 'price'...then i cant help you

 

[djd09]

who are they going to blame this time...because the mortgage broker has been cut out of the loop so i was told even though that is wrong

 

[glenn walker]

We don't normally know what a home appraised for or if a waiver was used. We do know the closed sale's comparables were based on the recorded sale's prices and that's the real market value.

if appraisers made no adjustments and a simple weighted average was applied on the five-six comparables used that may be a better unbiased valuation then fiddling around.

Finally remember the buyers had sellers had already made the real market adjustments when they determined the final sales price they are willing to pay for the property.