A Very Likely Scenario

[LA Woman]

http://realestateandhousing2.blogspot.com/2008/08/worlds-grandest-ponzi-scheme-unravels.html

Thanks for that link, very interesting read. Keep'em coming.

 

[JCONNOR3]

Eli- The post is to assist us all in making decisions going forward. Depressing? Hell if you aren't depressed about business by now nothing can get you down.

In any event one of the positive spins on this is that we appraisers were born in the depression. Prior to that there were no appraisers as everyone speculated on what values were. The appraiser was the local real estate guy, banker, or the farm agent.

Everyone is an expert in real estate when things are good but who wants to try this hat on now? Even seasoned folks are hanging it up. IMO read and learn what all the possibilities are and use that knowledge to prepare for the next few years. Personally, I think we are about to be absolutely deluged with work as the Feds are going to be the only game in town and they insist on solid appraisal work as I worked for them for many years.

The lenders had what they wanted and like all hogs they went to slaughter. Those greedy little pigs have shot themselves in their collective tootsies and don't think for a minute it went unnoticed. From this point forward somebody will be held responsible for actually looking at a property and having his azz on the line on a report.

The only option for banks is to portfolio their loans and they are simply unable to do so with the liquidity issues. If they want to earn fees, and the DO, they will have to sell them to big brother and that spells hard copy appraisal.

There is a lot of blather being thrown around as everyone jockies for position going forward but the rule makers are absolutely going to require good appraisal reports on all paper and it isn't far off. We are in what I have called the haze right now. This period always happens when the market tanks. It is dragging the bodies from the battle field and cleaning up.

Game on when lending begins again and it will soon cause this country can't survive the machinery being locked up for long. The trick for us is to be able to hit a moving target. So Eli chin up it is coming our way. Who are you going to have guard the treasury? The banks? Doubtful.

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

Absorption rate is not a function of historical sales numbers. We are looking at a new dimension of absorption . . . and the builders are still building . . . because the banks are still lending . . . and then foreclosing . . . and the unsinkable Titanic eventually sank, even though the band kept playing.

nicely put.

always been positive in life

Pollyannish aspirations can be crushed, the pessimistic among us are not disappointed in failures, we plan for it as a defensive strategy. My home mortgage by years end will be in 4 figures. I have no car payment, no tractor payment. My only fear is health concerns, I can manage the rest. I won't be sitting in my 4,000 SF McMansion worrying about paying the electric bill thinking everything will turn out OK by spring..when the market turns...when the stock market bottoms...when the buyers come back...when we have a new president...when we...

 

[Mike Boyd]

Isaak Newton had it right: What goes up, must come down.

Plummeting of housing prices, while painful to some, is a boon to others. For several years it looked as if the typical younger family would never be able to buy a home in California.

Statewide unemployment is 5.6%. Now, a much larger percentage of the 94.4% that are working CAN buy a house and that will improve as prices fall further. Prices were out of control and it takes a crisis like we have now to bring it back to reality.

I do not have the background to write about all the other issues. However, I know that when houses sell, eventually the inventory will diminish and builders will start building again. Hopefully, land values also have declined along with the price of materials and builders will construct AFFORDABLE housing, not just the McMansions.

I also know that Americans will respond to higher fuel costs by supporting alternative energy sources and changing from oil to natural gas...of which we have plenty. When that happens, oil prices will drop as they have done in the last couple of weeks, resulting in lower gasoline prices. The more we scare the major oil producers, the more they will lower prices. Oil and housing: get those back under control and we will have a healthy economy.

 

[john snyder]

Long but worth the read.


May You Live in Interesting Times: The Sequel

May 15, 2008 Printer version



William C. Dudley, Executive Vice President

Remarks at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's 44th Annual Conference on Bank Structure and Competition, Chicago


Exhibits (slides)


Regards,

jbs

 

[Eli Weiss]

Let's say ********* are walking down the street and a thug snatches *** mother's purse and then stabs her and she bleeds out in *** arms. Are you going to be optimistic? Are you going to try to cheer up the police and the coroner.

Do me a favor and change the scenario to a John Doe
Thank You, I am not asking for much...