AI Agents and Appraiser Oversupply

[Sadie]

AI is over estimated for taking over human tasks , per books I am reading on the subject. It can interact and assist humans - AI stand-alone has more to contribute to other fields such as science and medicine or big corporate use than in fields like appraising.

The recent changes of appraisers not inspecting are not tech-driven; they are profit-driven to strip income from appraisers and send it to the AMC, who are the vast majority of companies that perform the inspection for a PDR for Waiver or for a hybrid. The only tech used is a floorplan app like Cubi casa, which an appraiser can use as well,

I doubt in 5 years, AI can do an appraisal substitute with comp selection, etc., and appraisers in the field and in appraisals will be used. But if the GSEs are gone or if their main mission is reducing reliance on appraisers even more, then we might see more use of nonappraisers - the amount of money at stake in a loan is so great. idk what the reason is for reducing human input would be.

That said, for many reasons, there is an appraiser oversupply, particularly in res license, but that could extend more to the commercial side as well, which has a heavy reliance on an income approach and might have more room for AI to expand into .

Pictures and videos can only show myc. Need a live person to pick up on the nuances of the property. And the smells that might be associated with it.

 

[TerryRohrer]

Sorry, but I have the secret weights.

I cringe to say what I have said....I seek no pleasure in saying it. I hate big tech...AI will be the downfall of society. It will put in place a caste system.


The same was said when cubi casa came out...I tested that. Just as accurate as appraisers. (I have not tested it out on odd ball or very atypical homes).

I have alamodes smartexchange.....I am testing out aloft and their photo AI.

The churn and burn mill appraisers are to blame.

Test it for yourself.

Well, you have clearly imbibed the koolaid. So, you are saying there can only be one correct measurement for the GLA of a dwelling. Where is that recorded? You are saying there can only be one correct condition rating. Where is that kept? How many major components are in a house? What weight do 10 year old countertops get, compared to 20 year old countertops? If those are provided to appraisers, all can get the same rating. If they can't be provided to appraisers, then proponents of their "accuracy" either lack an understanding of the issue, or are deceitful when they claim an orange not called an apple is an inaccurate identification. But when appraisers start singing the praises of technology they don't have the first clue about, well, I will agree all are in trouble.

 

[J Grant]

Not limited to appraisers by any means, our profession might be more AI-proof than others - at least for a while. The large $ in evolved in a loan might give users pause -

That aside, if people are so short-sighted as to jump on the bandwagon of faster and cheaper with the result that ding so replaces many jobs, the larger amount of jobless and displaced people will offset any benefit. WRT business - the choice to retain people in jobs and careers simply because it is a better human choice is on the table.

The cost savings accrue to the billionaires and smaller set of shareholders; the consumer sees little to none of it, and any small savings they see will not compensate if they themselves or family members were thrown out of work or have to substitute half-pay work for a former career.
Sometimes, regulatory framework really does serve people.

If people do not consider the outcome of AI and in a greedy, short-sighted fashion, just embrace it with the result of throwing millions out of work - all I can say is perhaps God, if there is a God, wanted humans to go extinct with a grand plan to turn what used to be humans into Avatars - a lot cheaper to support than biolgiocioal life humans! (who can not be self-sustaining if they are no longer needed for paid labor.)- and guess who decides that - we the people - so we have nobody to blame but ourselves for it ) --unless UI is embraced and where is that coming to come from?) -

 

[nachocheesefries]

Pictures and videos can only show myc. Need a live person to pick up on the nuances of the property. And the smells that might be associated with it.

They are willing to trade SOME reliability for A LOT of efficiency. So they miss the neighboring hog farm on a few properties...all fake money they are lending anyway.

Another component that forces lenders to care is loaning their own money of course...which none of them do anymore.

 

[nachocheesefries]

A lot of folks believe appraisers don't need any local knowledge that can't be gained from Google Maps. That is why appraisers with 20 state licenses from coast to coast are proliferating. Appraisers arguing in support of that are just speeding the process to their own detriment.

True...how how does the new apprentice appraiser churn and burning mill operator 10 years from now have any experience if they have never drove around and went into different neighborhoods?

 

[TerryRohrer]

True...how how does the new apprentice appraiser churn and burning mill operator 10 years from now have any experience if they have never drove around and went into different neighborhoods?

They will be PAREA graduates in India working for $.50 per hour and taxpayers will be picking up 100% of the risk instead of just 90% of it.

 

[Surf Cat]

No one should be 'driving by the comparables' anymore. This is a retarded exercise that adds almost no value in 99% of cookie cutter deals. Lots of inefficiencies causing us to cut our own noses off and pushing our clients to Hybrids. You think they are driving comps on Hybrids? And no one give a ****. Whats the damn number!?!?!!?!?

Inspecting the subject and delineating the neighborhood is everything.....So, that comparable siding apartments, at the school kid drop off zone, in close proximity to railroad tracks; doesn't matter to you? You don't think that affects value? Do you think the realtor is going to shoot the photo of the subject property with the city water pump in the background? Driving the comps and delineating the neighborhood is not just about taking photos....

We gotta get rid of these old dogs running things now.

He who has the money has the power.... you're just a lowly schlepping appraiser...

Hybrids obviously weren't designed for appraisers. They also weren't designed for efficiency and speed. They were designed to eliminate the speed bump, the friction caused by appraisers observing and reporting. The lenders don't want to hear about deferred maintenance, external or functional issues or a report made "subject to". They want to make the loan and make money.

One page, that's all we need.

Yeah right. You'll be up to your neck in the Tar Pits like the dinosaur you are by time that ever happens....

 

[nachocheesefries]

Inspecting the subject and delineating the neighborhood is everything.....So, that comparable siding apartments, at the school kid drop off zone, in close proximity to railroad tracks; doesn't matter to you? You don't think that affects value? Do you think the realtor is going to shoot the photo of the subject property with the city water pump in the background? Driving the comps and delineating the neighborhood is not just about taking photos....

I agree but I already have the knowledge after appraising for 20+ years. Newbies can't learn neighborhoods etc. if no one is inspecting houses. I think we have to start somewhere in order to be more efficient...not inspecting the house aint one of em tho.

 

[J Grant]

One assumes underwriting would become more efficient with AI ( the tasks and data seems better suited to it ) and who needs so many human loan officers -

Have the overlords considered how, when everything becomes more "efficient", where the customer base will come from wrt enough people who have the income to buy the goods or services? (if so many workers and professionals lose their jobs - uh - they were the people buying houses to generate loans .....

The housing market seems to generate less and less income for lenders and agents ( and appraisers ) the more "efficient" it becomes.

 

[nachocheesefries]

and no one is safe....it you are in a safe industry...guess who is coming for you job? EV ER EEE ONE