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All Solar, Et Al, In 12 Years?

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Profits subsidized by fiat breeds the kind of competition that is going to murder you, dilute the business, and there ends up with a couple of survivors and lots of losers.
 
Study: Are we shifting to fewer, weaker Atlantic hurricanes?

WASHINGTON (AP) — A new but controversial study asks if an end is coming to the busy Atlantic hurricane seasons of recent decades. The Atlantic looks like it is entering in to a new quieter cycle of storm activity, like in the 1970s and 1980s, two prominent hurricane researchers wrote Monday in the journal Nature Geoscience.

Scientists at Colorado State University, including the professor who pioneered hurricane seasonal prognostication, say they are seeing a localized cooling and salinity level drop in the North Atlantic near Greenland. Those conditions, they theorize, change local weather and ocean patterns and form an on-again, off-again cycle in hurricane activity that they trace back to the late 1800s.

Warmer saltier produces periods of more and stronger storms followed by cooler less salty water triggering a similar period of fewer and weaker hurricanes, the scientists say. The periods last about 25 years, sometimes more, sometimes less. The busy cycle that just ended was one of the shorter ones,since about 2012 there's been more localized cooling in the key area and less salt, suggesting a new, quieter period.

But it is too soon to be certain that one has begun. The busy cycle started around 1995 and probably ended in 2012; in 2005 alone, Katrina, Rita and Wilma killed more than 1,500 people and caused billions of dollars of damage. The quiet cycle before that went from about 1970 to 1994 and before that it was busy from 1926 until 1969,

Other scientists either reject the study outright or call it premature.

"I think they're pretty much wrong about this," said MIT meteorology professor Kerry Emanuel, who also specializes in hurricane research. "That paper is not backed by a lot of evidence." Emanuel doesn't believe in the cycle cited by the researchers or the connection to ocean temperature and salinity.

He thinks the quiet period of hurricanes of the 1970s and 1980s is connected to sulfur pollution and the busy period that followed is a result of the cleaning of the air.

And Jim Kossin of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said cooler water temperatures earlier this year might be due to Atlantic dust, and August temperatures there have risen. Another NOAA scientist, Gabriel Vecchi, said while there seems to be signs of a change in the circulation of the Atlantic, it's far too early to say that the shift has happened.

"So what happens in the next few years is going to be very exciting to watch as it may help settle or at least refine some intense scientific debates,"
http://news.yahoo.com/study-shifting-fewer-weaker-atlantic-hurricanes-150345963.html

I'm not excited, I'm confused.

1926 to 1969 = busy cycle
1970 to 1994 = quiet cycle = sulfur pollution
1995 to 2012 = busy cycle = cleaner air
2013 to now = quiet cycle = more localized cooling and less salt

We have an agenda, stop studying stuff.

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clip_image002_thumb5.jpg


The long and model-unpredicted Great Pause of 18 years 8 months in global mean lower-troposphere temperature as recorded in the RSS satellite monthly dataset is inexorably driving down the longer-run warming rate, when the IPCC’s predictions would have led us to expect an acceleration.

The graph shows the entire RSS lower-troposphere satellite dataset for the 440 months January 1979 to August 2015, with the bright blue trend on the entire series equivalent to just over 1.2 C°/century. Overlaid graph in green is the zero trend in the 224 months since January 1997 – more than half the entire 440-month record.

Furthermore, the warming rate is now embarrassingly far below prediction. It is worth demonstrating this fact with the IPCC’s own graphs:

clip_image004_thumb4.jpg


The above graph is interesting, because in pale blue it shows the IPCC’s current generation of models – 42 of them – making predictions on the assumption that drastic reductions in CO2 emissions are made. Yet observed temperatures, shown in black, are already visibly at odds with – and falling below – even the least the prediction, and a long way below the central prediction.

A point worth making to those who continue to deny that there has been a Pause or that the discrepancy between prediction and reality continues to widen with each passing year is that all of the IPCC graphs fail to predict, which means global warming as theory fails, which means global warming understanding amounts to speculation at best. At worst, global warming driven by human CO2 emissions is a fraud.
 
Okay I want to give some credit to the feds for environmental work.

In New Jersey, the Passaic River runs through the town where I grew up. In the 60's and early 70's calling it polluted was an understatement to say the least. I think at one point it was the most polluted river in the country.

Tires, debris, chemicals from manufacturing over flows from sewage treatment plant on it's banks, I even remember dead cars and dead motor boats sticking out of it. And the smell, OMG the smell.

I went there a little while back, and there were minnows in the water, turtles sunning themselves on rocks, dragon flies and birds. But no smell. The orange and yellow streaked sand and mud from the shores that had been very prevalent when I was a kid, were all gone.

So thank you to the Feds for forcing the clean up of the Passaic River. It is a very pleasant place now.

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There are proximate concerns and then there are distant concerns. Water and air quality, water supply, soils contamination, etc are all more proximate threats to our quality of life on earth than the distant threat of mad-made climate destruction. A billion dollars spent on the prevention and remediation of these proximate threats will yield a measurable improvement - we get something we can see for that money being spent. A billion dollars diverted from treating the proximate problems to treating a distant problem that we're not even sure will respond to our efforts is a tougher sell by any measure, not the least reason for which is the reduction in response to the proximate problem.

The AGW proponents want to portray their opposition as being desirous of returning to the 19th Century model of simply ignoring all environmental concerns without any regard or consideration of the more nuanced possibility of spending those dollars more efficiently. I sincerely doubt any AGW opponent gets sexually aroused at the sight of an oil spill or chemical dump.
 
It is a very pleasant place now.
I thought Johnny Carson said New Jersey was the National Landfill.

Q: What do you call someone who dies because of a politically-inspired traffic jam?
A: A "corpus Christie"!

Q: Why is New Jersey called the Garden State?
A: Because Oil, Petrolium, Nuclear, Land Fill, & Toxic Waste State Didn't fit on a license plate!

Q. What's the difference between a Rider University sorority sister and a scarecrow?
A. One lives in a field and is stuffed with hay. The other frightens birds and small animals.

Q: What's the only thing that grows in Newark?
A: The Crime Rate!

Q: What's the only thing that grows in Newark?
A: The swelling from your head from getting jacked!

Q: Why do Rider grads keep their diplomas on their dashboards?
A: So they can park in handicap spaces.

Q: Where do fat cows go on vacation?
A: Moo Jersey.

Q: Why does California have the most lawyers, and New Jersey, the most toxic waste dumps?
A: New Jersey got first pick!

Q: What do you call a good looking girl on the Rider University campus?
A: A visitor.

Q: What is Chris Christie's nickname?
A: Cake Boss.
 
How Well Is The U.S. Solar Market Doing?

Solar panel installations in the U.S. reached about 1.4 gigawatts during the second quarter of this year, reflecting falling costs and a rush to complete projects ahead of a shrinking tax credit, says a report released Wednesday.

Overall, the country is now home to more than 20 gigawatts of solar panels, said a report by GTM Research and the Solar Energy Industries Association. That should generate enough electricity to serve 4.6 million homes, the report says.

The 20-gigawatt figure refers to the generation capacity, which is different than the amount of energy, in kilowatt hour, that can be produced over certain duration. A solar power plant produces less electricity than a natural gas or nuclear power plant of the same capacity because the fuel needed (sunlight) is only available for certain hours during the day. But generation capacity remains a useful metric for power companies and grid operators to plan electricity production and delivery.

The residential market continues to grow like gangbusters. The second quarter added 473 megawatts, a record and a 70% jump from the same quarter a year ago. Falling prices and financing options, such as leases and loans, from a greater number of installers, are big reasons for the growth. A solar panel system prices fell between 9% and 12% during 2014.

While the growth in the residential space has spread to more states than before, but the top five states accounted for nearly three-fourths of the cumulative installations in that market segment.

Utility-scale projects also are growing quickly. The 729 megawatts of the projects completed during the second quarter made up 52% of the total installations during that period. More than 5 gigawatts are being built now. The big driver for the growth is a 30% federal tax credit that is set to fall to 10% come January 1, 2017. Developers are hoping to complete their projects by the end of 2016.

The third market segment, which makes up of projects for businesses, government agencies and nonprofits, showed disappointing second quarter results, however. Installations fell 33% from the year-ago period. This segment is particularly tricky to tackle mainly because there isn’t a standard metric, like FICO scores, for gauging a potential customer’s credit worthiness. So, it costs more time and money to evaluate and finance each project. Commercial projects also are usually so much smaller than utility projects that the cost of developing each of them significantly cuts into the profit that can be made.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/antonyleather/2015/09/09/apple-iphone-6s-should-you-consider-upgrading/

Take away the tax credits and solar PV is not going to sell as much. Government mandates are propelling demand for solar. As the cost of the average kilowatt-hour increases to reflect the increasing amount of higher cost solar, user demand will soften. The environmental benefits of solar will be less than the cost.
 
Electric car rebates fail state’s policy goals

In an effort to reach lower-income communities, the California Air Resources Board voted last month to amend the Clean Vehicle Rebate Program to limit electric vehicle rebates to middle-class households. The vote addresses an unexpected development that the program created: It was notorious for handing out rebates to households that make over $500,000 annually. However, this new limitation is not enough to secure California’s policy goals. The rebate program must be reworked to ensure that Californians are purchasing as many clean vehicles as possible.

Under this program, rebates vary by car model and electric type — a plug-in Toyota Prius rebate is $1,500, while a Toyota Mirai is $5,000. They are, however, consistent based on the electric category. Though the majority of subsidies did not go to wealthy Californians, what is concerning is that purchases of Teslas, luxury electric cars, are responsible for about 16 percent of all rebate funding — approximately $42 million. The cheapest Tesla vehicle currently available is the Tesla Model S, which costs approximately $75,000. This is far out of reach for most Californians, whose median annual household income is $61,000, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. This means rebates often go to families that do not need them — and, therefore, are not as effective as they could be.

If California wants to put more electric cars on the road, then it must make electric cars affordable for most residents and provide effective incentives for Californians to purchase them. According to the program’s website, only 6 percent of the rebates have gone to buyers in “disadvantaged communities.” More must be done to change this. The $42 million used to subsidize luxury car purchases for many who could already afford such a vehicle laughs in the face of the program’s purpose: to increase accessibility to electric cars.

The money used to subsidize Tesla purchases could have been diverted to make other electric cars cheaper for more Californians. The Nissan Leaf, for example, retails for $29,000, less than half of the value of the Tesla Model S. The $42 million paid to Tesla buyers could have put more than 1,000 Nissans on the road at no extra cost to the purchaser. Considering the already-low price of the Leaf, rebates for that car specifically could reach far more buyers than rebates across the board. Creating incentives for already low-priced electric vehicles puts them within reach of even Californians who make half of the median income.

It is perfectly acceptable to subsidize cars across the board for all potential buyers if the intent were simply to make all electric cars more affordable regardless of the socioeconomic status of the purchaser. However, if the qualifying and determining characteristic of the program’s success is how many electric cars are actually purchased, then rebates must aim for the lowest common denominator. Doing so increases the number of purchases of electric vehicles, which then decreases overall carbon emissions.

The political establishment, however, does not share this view. It only recently voted to disqualify households that make $500,000 or more from subsidies for battery-operated cars, the most common electric vehicle. Despite the vote, these households can still get rebates over three times the value of those for plug-in hybrids if they purchase comparatively uncommon hydrogen fuel cell cars.

Even the most expensive gasoline-driven cars will constitute less than half of a very wealthy Californian’s income. In contrast, even with incentives, most Californians would have to pay half of their annual income for even the cheapest all-electric vehicles. The most expedient way to reduce this inequality in purchasing power is to give more rebates to Californians who could not otherwise purchase electric vehicles.

Keeping this in mind, it is clear that the government ought to emphasize subsidization in the middle class. The current system does not cater to the needs of most Californians or effectively pursue California’s policy goals. As it stands, the rebate program still heavily supports wealthy Californians at the expense of most Californians. If California wants to have more — and not simply more expensive — electric cars on the road, then the rebate system needs to be reworked and re-forged with the express purpose of putting more clean cars in the hands of more Californians.

http://dailytrojan.com/2015/09/08/electric-car-rebates-fail-states-policy-goals/

Electric cars are rich people's toys and gives them a smug factor that they hunger for. It has nothing to do with the environment.

Electric cars, like solar panels, cannot compete with their fossil fuel competitors without subsidy and government mandates. Of course the rich go for the reward and smugness.
 
Until they address grid energy storage it's all a cat and mouse game. Eventually all the mice get eaten.
 
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