Another Housing Crash

[Meandering]

Rent Regulation in New York State takes the form of rent control and rent stabilization programs.[1] Each city in the state may choose whether to participate or not, and as of 2007, 51 municipalities participated in the program, including Albany, Buffalo, and New York City, where over one million apartments are rent-regulated.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rent_control_in_New_York

 

[glenn walker]

I think what you guys crying affordability might not be considering is that peoples housing expectations may just have to decline. Most of us are all just spoiled. You go to Manhattan and people rent a 100 SF room in a 300 SF **** hole in a 7 floor walk up and pay like $1,000. You think that kind of "unaffordability" can't happen in SF or LA?

San Francisco already reached New York and better parts of Los Angeles are very similar.

 

[Randolph Kinney]

Actually I am not sure if the analysis and mentioning of lenders loosened requirements or especially talking about marginal buyers with marginal credit is or could be assumed to be redlining a community or a certain race of people. I would hate to be the appraiser today in this environment who got involved in a transaction where he-she completed a report and was basically saying the lenders-the underwriters the government who writes and approves these loan programs is intentionally selling and funding loans that are designed to fail. I was surprised to see the post from a California appraiser because even though I agree data is data we have been warned many times over the years that some data is acceptable and others is not and commenting about government agencies underwriting and guidelines is the same as being called a heretic by your local church. Much safer to just do your appraisal and when it crashes blame appraisers because it's always there fault anyway.

Of course if YOU put in the verbiage "redlining", YOU have the problem.

 

[Joe Flacco]

San Francisco already reached New York and better parts of Los Angeles are very similar.

Wrong. I've spent time in and know people in all of those cities. You get A LOT more house in SF than in NYC. It's basically that you get something very nice in SF and if you want the same thing in Manhattan, you are paying double. Or you can get a POS for the same price.

 

[George Hatch]

I think what you guys crying affordability might not be considering is that peoples housing expectations may just have to decline. Most of us are all just spoiled. You go to Manhattan and people rent a 100 SF room in a 300 SF **** hole in a 7 floor walk up and pay like $1,000. You think that kind of "unaffordability" can't happen in SF or LA?

We're professional appraisers, not rah-rah cheerleader realty agents.

The analyses of pricing trends over time isn't an exercise in crying about affordability or social justice. It's simply observe and report. We watch the market increase without moral judgment and we watch the market decrease without moral judgment. It's actually part of our job description. Personally, I don't care what the market does, and I certify to that apathy in every appraisal report I sign. I am interested in tracking and analyzing those trends, though.

Of course people CAN lower their expectations and many probably will. Some of those expectations might include moving out of the urban areas, even at lower incomes, in an attempt to improve their quality of life. Unlike Hong Kong or Manhattan, the rest of the US is not so geographically constrained that people are compelled to stay because there's no place to go.

 

[Randolph Kinney]

Eight of the top 10 counties with the highest median home prices in Q1 2018 posted negative net migration in 2017: Kings County (Brooklyn), New York (25,484 net migration decrease); Santa Clara County (San Jose), California (5,559 net migration decrease); New York County (Manhattan), New York (3,762 net migration decrease); Orange County, California (3,750 net migration decrease); and San Mateo, Marin, Napa and Santa Cruz counties in Northern California.

https://www.attomdata.com/news/market-trends/home-sales-prices/home-affordability-report-q1-2018/

 

[Joe Flacco]

We're professional appraisers, not rah-rah cheerleader realty agents.

The analyses of pricing trends over time isn't an exercise in crying about affordability or social justice. It's simply observe and report. We watch the market increase without moral judgment and we watch the market decrease without moral judgment. It's actually part of our job description. Personally, I don't care what the market does, and I certify to that apathy in every appraisal report I sign. I am interested in tracking and analyzing those trends, though.

Of course people CAN lower their expectations and many probably will. Some of those expectations might include moving out of the urban areas, even at lower incomes, in an attempt to improve their quality of life. Unlike Hong Kong or Manhattan, the rest of the US is not so geographically constrained that people are compelled to stay because there's no place to go.

lol. Who is cheerleading?

Wasn't there some data presented in the other thread that median income and prices diverged in the 70's and have not looked back? That is almost 50 years of the price / income theory being false. It is at least not a indicator for price.

 

[Randolph Kinney]

Wrong. I've spent time in and know people in all of those cities. You get A LOT more house in SF than in NYC. It's basically that you get something very nice in SF and if you want the same thing in Manhattan, you are paying double. Or you can get a POS for the same price.

Potential homeowners in search of affordable residential properties will have a tough time if they are hunting in California, according to the 2018 Home Affordability Report issued by San Francisco-based Unison Home Ownership Investors.

The report, which analyzed the nation’s 22 largest metro areas, determined that the least affordable metros in the country are all in California.

https://nationalmortgageprofessiona...ornia-offers-least-affordable-housing-markets

Obviously, they did not consult with you on their affordability report.

 

[Joe Flacco]

Potential homeowners in search of affordable residential properties will have a tough time if they are hunting in California, according to the 2018 Home Affordability Report issued by San Francisco-based Unison Home Ownership Investors.

The report, which analyzed the nation’s 22 largest metro areas, determined that the least affordable metros in the country are all in California.

https://nationalmortgageprofessiona...ornia-offers-least-affordable-housing-markets

Obviously, they did not consult with you on their affordability report.

WRONG.



https://ny.curbed.com/2017/8/21/16179926/manhattan-average-square-foot-price


You get A LOT more house in California than you do in NYC. It is not even close. Not only is the price per SF of space a lot higher in Manhattan, the quality and condition of the average space is a lot better in California than Manhattan.

 

[Randolph Kinney]

WRONG.

View attachment 35223

https://ny.curbed.com/2017/8/21/16179926/manhattan-average-square-foot-price


You get A LOT more house in California than you do in NYC. It is not even close. Not only is the price per SF of space a lot higher in Manhattan, the quality and condition of the average space is a lot better in California than Manhattan.

Yep, more house does not equate to affordability, does it?

The smaller the GLA, the higher price/sf which makes mathematical sense. However, it is nonsense to measure affordability by price/sf.