Anybody ready to check "DECLINING"?

[Chris Colston]

http://www.floridatoday.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060301/BUSINESS/603010396

Is anybody ready to check DECLINING for market conditions or OVER SUPPLY or better yet marketing times over 9 months?

Seems to be what is happening in MY market area.

The median resale price of a single-family home in Brevard County plunged by $15,300 -- from $234,400 in December to $219,100 in January, the Florida Association of Realtors reported Tuesday. That's a drop of 6.5 percent in a month

Brevard was one of five Florida metropolitan areas where median prices fell by at least $10,000 from December to January. The others were:

Fort Myers/Cape Coral: $322,300 in December; $287,200 in January; down 10.9 percent.

Fort Walton Beach: $242,100 in December; $225,500 in January; down 6.9 percent.

Pensacola: $170,700 in December; $158,100 in January; down 7.4 percent.

West Palm Beach/Boca Raton: $408,200 in December; $393,700 in January; down 3.6 percent.
At the median half the homes sell for more and half for less.

 

[Randolph Kinney]

Nope. Zip code 92009 looks good, averaging 60 days on market for listings, pendings and sold properties ranging from $560,000 to $2,000,000. I am not seeing a problem in my market ... yet.:new_popcornsmiley:

 

[tedwinter]

Most of central Maryland is not quite there yet. I have gone with steady/in balance/3-6 months more often than not as of late.

The price drops I have noticed have mostly been in condo projects that had experienced a rate of appreciation that was very out of line. The appreciation had mostly happened in these areas during the second half of last year and has just now started to pull back.

 

[Ray Miller]

Have been. Some of the submarkets in my area have been over six months to a year for the past year and ahalf. Some of the submarkets have been in a downward mode for six to eight months. Over all the market appears to be stable with marketing time 3 to 6 and over 6.

New home sales value have fallend from the the $275K/$250K to below $190K for any thing that is moving. So we now have two submarkets to look at those above $190K for time, and the older homes market. Those 50/60 years and older are declining.

I also need to watch another submarket that is lake front property. Many of the older homes are being bought up for there lake frontage and then the house used as back fill and an new $500K home being built. However with that said the builders are telling me the $500K home orders are only at 50% of what they were the last two years for this spring at this time.

Log home orders have dropped 33% this year from the same time last year.

MFG is still at about the same or a slight increase. They buy the box and then put it on the acreage.

Raw land sales is all over the place. Some areas it has dropped and others it is still increasing.

Many different different markets and sub markets in the area that I cover.

 

[Steve Metz]

I would say declining in the high end over $1,000,000. In my area of St Simons Island,GA. 2 year + supply of luxury homes on the market. A lot of these are older brick ranches 1500 GLA whose owners must be dreaming of cashing in big. They could get it about a year and a half ago but not now.

We were home shopping for a home in Jaxsonville, FL last week for a second home but the prices are silly. I am going to wait for the crash to spend my cash.

 

[Michael Tipton]

Not ready to do either at this point. January and February historically have a lower sales volume locally and December usually is more active to beat the end of year transfer for tax purposes, homestead, etc.

Have noticed an increase in available dwellings listed and most recently price decreases per MLS daily data, however, this is a reflection of overpriced dwellings trying to take advantage of the increasing market that has slowed or stabilized since 10/05 locally.

Have changed from increasing to stable, from under 3 months to 3-6 months. I will continue to review #days listed on comparables.

 

[Wendy]

No widespread decline yet. I have added "market is expected to soften and possibly decline" to reports for two large subs in my area. Underwrites don't seem to care for that.....

Moved awhile ago from "0-3" to "3-6". Not quite ready to go to 6+ for most areas.

The mid-market, ie: $200 -250K, is still somewhat slim for the desirable neighborhoods. Of course, what you get for that price is a joke, glad I have a house!

 

[Annemieke Roell]

Nope. Oklahoma, as a whole, is doing pretty good .....

 

[Tawfik Ahdab]

Not so fast

http://www.floridatoday.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060301/BUSINESS/603010396

Is anybody ready to check DECLINING for market conditions or OVER SUPPLY or better yet marketing times over 9 months?

Seems to be what is happening in MY market area.

Be careful. The form asks about values, not sales prices. All you would be stating is that the median sale price declined in January 2006 relative to December 2005 ("plunged" is the sort of tendentious word a newswriter would use to create otherwise non-existent drama).

The increase, stability, or decline in property values would have to be calculated based on a set of resales of the same properties over time, and excluding such resales as have been added onto, updated, or otherwise meaningfully modified.

The reason you should not quite check the "declining" box is that the set of sales in December was not the same set of properties as sold in January. Hence what you have is a median price change, not a change in the value trend.

It is also important to look at the sales volume changes. If they have not changed, it could mean that it's too early to tell. If they have increased, it could mean another (possibly the availability of lower cost housing, such as the sudden surge in condo sales versus detached homes, etc.). And if they have declined, it could mean the market could be in decline or preparing for a reversal in the trend.

In addition to sales volume changes, tracking changes in expired volume, marketing times and/or exposure time in market is important.

There are several factors to consider before drawing a conclusion about market conditions. A change in median sales prices from one month to the next does not in isolation demonstrate anything.

Chris, you obtained one of my market studies, if I recall. Note the numerous indicators I track in order to attempt to divine changes in market conditions.

 

[Pamela Crowley (Florida)]

So true Tawfik!

Since I'm now in the same market as Chris Colston, I can add to what she posted.

If I were to use sales from 5-10 months ago, the appraised value would often be higher than if I use the sales within the past 3+/- months.

Marketing times are growing.
The number of available listings is growing very fast.
The number of listings with multiple price reductions is growing fast.
The listed to sale price ratios are rising.

For the first time in over 2 years, the builders have ready to move into spec houses available and are offering discounts. The number of their speculator pre-construction contracts falling out is growing daily. Three months ago the only new construction ready to move into houses available were only through a speculator that was asking $50-150K more than it was just purchased for and about that much more than you could contract with a builder to have it built if you could wait for that. Now, the investors that already closed on all those new houses are starting to dump for whatever they can get. Some of these new houses that are speculator owned have been for sale for over 6 months with no takers.

Put this all together and the trend now is: