Anybody ready to check "DECLINING"?

[Richard Carlsen]

Especially in HUD Codes

I've been checking over-supply in most places for nearly 6 to 8 months, including some of the big, high priced lakes. Lake Charlevoix with about 56 miles of beautiful shoreline has about a 13 month supply of water front right now from $260K to $8.5M.

As far as declining goes, I've been putting that in Mfg housing for some time. Latest report had 8 relevant comps with 4 of them REO's. In some places, there's a 2+ year supply of Mfg housing. REO's are using up the supply of buyers and driving values down.

Yes, I've been saying over-supply and declining values in certain areas...........and not hearing a word from the UW's.

 

[Chris Colston]

Chris,

I just got those damn underwriters trained to understand that positive time adjustments are OK (if supported). Now I have to get them trained all over to accept negative time adjustments...

I have done two new homes this week where I came in under value, even though I had dozens of comps from the past several months which supported the value. Seems there are a bunch of investors who can't sell their spec homes, and are listing them lower than my subject's contract price. I'm sure you have seen it too!

Just completed a new riverfront condo unit appraisal. I came in low, (again). I called the Mortgage Co. with the bad news. They passed the news along to the borrowers, who were ECSTATIC! I guess they bought pre-construction as an investor, and probably couldn't sell it today for their cost, and with comissions and selling costs, were in for a BIG loss. They had an appraisal contingincy, and are off the hook.

I am speculating that we will begin to see buyers of new riverfront condo's and spec tract homes in our area pressuring us for LOW appraisals for this reason. Should be interesting...

It's going to get real interesting with all of the new ocean front condos, especially up in your direction. I've appraised 3 units in the Indialantic complex that was mentioned in the article. I think the investors are going to start scrambling very soon.

 

[Jason Cowan]

Don,

I am not sure how the assessors figures were calculated but assessment offices in VA are almost always at least 6 months behind the market. I am a former county assessor and the latest sales we used were from 12/05 for assessments effective 01/07. (1 full year behind) We had a small office and it took us a year to work the entire county. I am not 100% sure if there is a state rule or guideline on this but you have to have a cutoff date for the sales. It wouldn't be fair to use sales from 01/06 in one part of the county and 05/06 in another. Some offices forcast or adjust up for time but others don't depending upon the political climate. Anyway, my point is that I don't put much weight in things put out by assessors offices.

 

[Couch Potato]

I had no choice but to check declining and over supply on a report last week. More than forty houses on the market in the subdivision (most for more than 5 months), sales from 5-6 months ago 10%-15% higher than the sales in the last 1-2 months. Only those owners willing to cut prices are selling. The subject was over near Chris and Pam in the southern part of Melbourne.

 

[Chris Colston]

I had no choice but to check declining and over supply on a report last week. More than forty houses on the market in the subdivision (most for more than 5 months), sales from 5-6 months ago 10%-15% higher than the sales in the last 1-2 months. Only those owners willing to cut prices are selling. The subject was over near Chris and Pam in the southern part of Melbourne.

I didn't think you were coming over this way anymore..and ya didn't even suggest getting together for coffee or lunch or nothin'

I do agree with the extended marketing time. There are three houses on my street and several others in a 5 block radius have been on the market for over 6 months. Some have reduced their asking prices by as much as $35,000 - $40,000. Seems Hurricane Wilma (in October) blew the umph right out the market, in this area. And yet they keep building new condos and townhouses in the half million $$++ range. :icon_eyecrazy:

 

[Pamela Crowley (Florida)]

Mass email to all Realtors in this area from a builder just came in. Keep in mind that up until about 6 weeks ago, there were no finished builder spec houses available through a builder.

For fast move in's we have roughly 30 spec homes that range from $199,990 to $243,990.00!

That's just for the City of Palm Bay and just one builder!!!

It's hitting here fast and hard.

Oh, and all the Realtors for the past few years have said that Thanksgiving through Easter is our stongest time of the year due to all the snow birds. Well, doesn't look like that's true <anymore>.

 

[The Warrior Monk]

My future daughter-in-law is an architect that works for a high-end architect in NYC. He's been involved in some major construction projects as a partner/investor. He's quit doing these high-end spec projects for now because he believes they are way to risky. I've also spoken to some builders that have been in the business for a long time that are quitting doing spec projects. These builders only have a few projects going on at a time, but they see the writing on the wall and don't want to lose a few hundred grand when the market heads south.

 

[Pamela Crowley (Florida)]

Smart lady.

1 day to 6+/- weeks ago, this builder would have had speculator investor contracts a few months old on these properties. 6+ weeks ago, you couldn't find a 'close to being ready to move into' house available through a builder here and it had been like that for 2+ years.

I believe this can only mean that the speculators that had the pre-construction contracts on these properties have bailed out prior to closing.

 

[Tim The Enchanter]

In general, I'm seeing mostly flat prices. High but not increasing more and not decreasing, so far. More inventory on market but not over 6 months worth. DOM on sales are mostly under 90, except in the higher end market which has longer times and maybe small declines. In the average $500k+ range inventory is still sometimes short in The Valley.

 

[aussie ken]

Very interesting thread everybody. Sounds like a relatively flat market overall with some local peaks and troughs.

I use to supply house and land sale statics to our local regional paper and some of the emotive language was unbelievable.

A few out of line high sales became a "market boom" and conversly a few under sold properties became a "housing market collapses"

Lies, lies and damn statistics!!