Anybody ready to check "DECLINING"?

[Don Clark]

Not yet, not in my market

This mornings newspaper shows my city and one other contigious city has assessment and market values that rose an average of 22% in my city last year. The other city was higher. Waiting on 6 other cities to report. (We have 39 Independent cities in Virginia. I do business in 8. They all have their own assessors). Read at
www.pilotonline.com

 

[Steve Owen]

Not yet; Maybe not anytime soon

I did a quick run on all the residential sales in our MLS over the last six months. The total number of sales is just barely higher than the previous six months... gradual increase in the numbers has been the norm for over ten years, with every year since 1999 showing an increase in total number sold. Average DOM over the last six months is 114 days. Difference in average list price to average sale price is -2.91 percent. Difference in median list price to median sale price is -1.05 percent. Our "sold at % of list price" statistic has hovered in the 96% to 97% range for as long as I can remember. The market here looks only slightly different from last year and largely because real estate agents are helping sellers realize that they need to list at a realistic price. Therefore, one of the items that cannot be easily tracked, what is the list price now compared to what it would have been if the property had listed last year, might be slightly lower. Nope, I'm not going to check "declining" at this point in time (maybe next month).

 

[Elliott]

Declining is not an option, unless there is a depression.
Though I think when interest rates trended up in the
late fall, prices declined, but that was then, and now
they are stable. Really, the rate of increase has
gone from like 15% a year to maybe 5% a year. It
might go down to 0%, or stable.

I don't think they'll make a loan if you check declining.


elliott

 

[Verne Hebert]

Nope, Inventory is still low

 

[Rick Neighbors]

Semi-Temporary Economy Changes

We have a different problem here in our area of Texas. Big glut of folks moving into the area because of all the gas well exploration. Went to a civic center meeting the other night. Our unemployment rate has declined by 6%.

Lots of new faces, of course quiet a few are just here to service the drilling operations, but there will still be a lot of folks left over when the drilling is done.They estimate we are looking at a 10 year window.

I have been seeing a lot of really short DOM times! Lots of homes selling in 10 to 15 days. Of course you have to watch the sneaky RE Agents. Pulled a comp today, showed 28 days on market. Looked deeper at the history of the property, it was actually 458 days!

Rick

 

[Bill Baughn]

I thought I had posted to this thread but I guess not...

A thought to remember...IT MIGHT HAVE BEEN DECLINING IN THE PAST, IT MIGHT BE DECLINING TOMORROW BUT FOR TODAY, WHEN I INSPECTED THE PROPERTY, VALUES WERE STABLE... :rainfro:

 

[Bill Baughn]

Of course you have to watch the sneaky RE Agents. Pulled a comp today, showed 28 days on market. Looked deeper at the history of the property, it was actually 458 days!

Rick

Good job Rick!!! Nice catch... Darn agents...can't trust no one...

 

[Jungle Boy]

As Tawfik said. Gotta be careful.

Decline in median price may mean that people are buying smaller houses. And that can be broken down even further if desired.

I checked a box "declined" yesterday, when the lender asked for a 1004D five months after the effective date. It is a 55+ community. Current comps in the subject development are over 10% less than in 06/05 - 09/05, although in general the market is not down in the market area.

 

[Jozsef Poor]

Prices are stabilizing; some places are still growing due to unique neighborhoods. There are many listings, primarily because the owners are overpricing the properties, looking for the same appreciation and market that was the beginning of last year and before. We are in a buyers market but need time for the sellers to adjust.

 

[incognito]

Chris,

I just got those damn underwriters trained to understand that positive time adjustments are OK (if supported). Now I have to get them trained all over to accept negative time adjustments...

I have done two new homes this week where I came in under value, even though I had dozens of comps from the past several months which supported the value. Seems there are a bunch of investors who can't sell their spec homes, and are listing them lower than my subject's contract price. I'm sure you have seen it too!

Just completed a new riverfront condo unit appraisal. I came in low, (again). I called the Mortgage Co. with the bad news. They passed the news along to the borrowers, who were ECSTATIC! I guess they bought pre-construction as an investor, and probably couldn't sell it today for their cost, and with comissions and selling costs, were in for a BIG loss. They had an appraisal contingincy, and are off the hook.

I am speculating that we will begin to see buyers of new riverfront condo's and spec tract homes in our area pressuring us for LOW appraisals for this reason. Should be interesting...