AQB's latest dumbing down by 'Stakeholders' Dropping the College Degree Requirement

[J Grant]

I never said that bad appraisals didn't exist; I know they do. I also know that they didn't cause any of previous crashes and they won't be the cause of the next one(s). They were barely a contributing factor. Poor lending standards including exotic financing vehicles and Wall Street greed caused the last crash.

You should read some of the post-mortem books regarding the last crash. Appraisals are barely mentioned because they weren't the cause.

Please note that I did not say that appraisals were the cause. I said they were a contributing factor. And I believe bad appasials ( or bad valuions of any kind, such as an AVM or BPO) are harmful. And they do not need to be a gross over-valuation or cause harm.

The problem with bad valuations of any kind, and that can include waivers , is that the harm is incremental and builds on itself. A property is overvalued by 5% -one might think, where is the harm? The harm is a closed sale overvalued. The sold price becomes the next comp. Build on that, month after month and prices can rise 20% in one year from it. Multiply that across the nation and spread the pain out in upside down equity of owners into ruin or financial loss and the harm is evident in the result.

I don;t need to read teh post-mortem books because I have to ask where these people were when it was happening? Silent? Doing nothing, or had no knowledge and were surprised by it?. While I am sure they have good insights, i lived it out right here in F Florida, one of the fraud capitals of the world and reviewed the crdappy appraisals and dealt with the mortgage broker pressure and did interviews for local media about it, including how appraisers signed a petition and nobody listened to us then ( and they are not listening to us now). I saw firsthand the pain the financial losses caused people, including a couple of suicides. Dont; n't need to read it-

 

[djd09]

Current Board Members​

The AQB is composed of five to nine members who are appointed by the BOT and may serve up to eight years.  Activities of the Board are directed by the Chair, who is appointed by the BOT for a one-year term.

Brad Swinney, Chair
Jerry Yurek, Vice Chair
William Fall
Julie Molendorp Floyd
Miriam Lopez
Byron Millerhttps://www.linkedin.com/in/byron-miller-SRA-AI-rrs-asa-raa-msse-3636a06b/
Karen Oberman
Valerie Scott
Shawn L. Telford

no comment...

 

[chad hampton]

That's also the clear minority extreme case. I'm sure the worst parea graduate will be worse.

 

[djd09]

the last thing this is about is college requirement...try cheap and fast

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

fee volatility from one month (or one week) to the next.

Short term view. In the 60s oil companies got rid of their geologists, aka Exploration Departments, and sold their rigs and laid off the drill crews. It was cheaper to rent out one of the drilling company rigs. Fast Fwd - 1973 - a crisis is at hand. No rigs, no roughnecks, no field engineers, supervisors and all newbie crews. Now prospects were haphazardly picked and the companies ended up drilling some pretty poorly sited wells. So, rigs were rented at premium prices while the builders set about (over) building rigs that were only to be laid down later when the learning curve of the geologists got better, wells hit more often, and we actually drove down the price of oil by our expertise into the early 80s... Rinse and repeat. Rigs laid down were cut up for scrap, some only 3 or 4 years old. Others scavenged for spare parts. Geologist gone. Engineers gone. Many like me, never to return. And with low prices in the 90s the industry was once again hollowed out with old heads and newbies all that was left. No one 30-50 years old. And it has taken almost 20 years for the US oil industry to once again become savvy. And once again, it will all repeat itself. Very inefficient which means the American consumer vacillates between cheap gas below the actual cost of finding and covering expenses to very expensive gasoline. The 'true' price of oil is the blend of the overly cheap and the overly expensive and that roller-coaster causes undue suffering at times and inadequate looking for the future at others. Same with over-producing almost anything.

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

because I have to ask where these people were when it was happening? Silent? Doing nothing, or had no knowledge and were surprised by it?.

Some like N. N. Taleb viewed the risk correctly. He was not alone but the NAR and mainstream financial media pooh-poohed all this as nonsense, only to suddenly start pointing fingers. These three were very vocal about it and were all told they were out of touch with the new financial boom coming. And even as late as March 2008, the so-called expert himself - Ben Bernanke is famous for claiming there was no "contagion between the stock market and housing. Really? And how about the NAR economists all claiming "today is a great time to buy." Liars, one and all.
These 3 definitely saw it coming at the time.
Jan Hatzuis
Michael Burry
Nouriel "Dr. Doom" Roubini

The college degree is a nothing burger. That is indeed true when the analytics involved are not part of the college grads training. A math degree might help. Maybe building trades in a Vo-tech would help more. But overall, the appraiser must draw upon their ability to synthesize the information that is available into a cogent argument for their decisions.

And the techniques used to make adjustments and calculate same are available, and have been for a long time. It is just that for the pitiful amount of compensation involved, some appraisers do not see any financial benefit to either spending a lot of time doing this manually, or paying for and learning software shortcuts that calculate it for me, then vetting those shortcuts to see if they are reasonable.

 

[djd09]

Current Board Members​

The AQB is composed of five to nine members who are appointed by the BOT and may serve up to eight years.  Activities of the Board are directed by the Chair, who is appointed by the BOT for a one-year term.

Brad Swinney, Chair
Jerry Yurek, Vice Chair
William Fall
Julie Molendorp Floyd
Miriam Lopez
Byron Millerhttps://www.linkedin.com/in/byron-miller-SRA-AI-rrs-asa-raa-msse-3636a06b/
Karen Oberman
Valerie Scott
Shawn L. Telford

no comment...

oh i cant help it...william fall

 

[George Hatch]

When I first met DW 20+ years ago I was hot for the idea of "building" a combination of databases that would comprise a virtual city with properties the appraisers could appraise as well as analyze in an appraisal assignment. Assessor records, assessor maps, zoning maps, zoning code, local MLS showing transactions going back several years for 1-4s, land and even non-res properties. I was toying with calling it Akersonville (after Charles Akerson).

Then all the coursework problems and examples used in the instruction could operate using a common database for the data. a little self-contained town with a Main Street, transition and multi-family pockets, subdivisions of varying ages, sizes and pricing, etc. Appraisers could be instructed how to do the research, look up the zoning and figure out what it means, work with data that DIDN'T line up perfectly as is usually the case for word problems in the instructional courses, and so on. Orient the course instruction to the examples we could built out of that town.

I was going to build a bunch of pdfs and arrange them in directories to the extent they could be burned to a CD-ROM that an appraiser could run on their desktop. Cludgy to do at the time, so it might not have been feasible. But now that's kind of what PAREA is going to be doing.

Technology enabling something today that wasn't necessarily possible 20 years ago. .

 

[Tiffany Gibbons]

Some like N. N. Taleb viewed the risk correctly. He was not alone but the NAR and mainstream financial media pooh-poohed all this as nonsense, only to suddenly start pointing fingers. These three were very vocal about it and were all told they were out of touch with the new financial boom coming. And even as late as March 2008, the so-called expert himself - Ben Bernanke is famous for claiming there was no "contagion between the stock market and housing. Really? And how about the NAR economists all claiming "today is a great time to buy." Liars, one and all.
These 3 definitely saw it coming at the time.
Jan Hatzuis
Michael Burry
Nouriel "Dr. Doom" Roubini

The college degree is a nothing burger. That is indeed true when the analytics involved are not part of the college grads training. A math degree might help. Maybe building trades in a Vo-tech would help more. But overall, the appraiser must draw upon their ability to synthesize the information that is available into a cogent argument for their decisions.

And the techniques used to make adjustments and calculate same are available, and have been for a long time. It is just that for the pitiful amount of compensation involved, some appraisers do not see any financial benefit to either spending a lot of time doing this manually, or paying for and learning software shortcuts that calculate it for me, then vetting those shortcuts to see if they are reasonable.

Can you believe United Wholesale Mortgage is going to do "silent second" mortgages of $15,000 to "assist" buyers with no money for a down-payment? With a balloon payment? It was adjustable rate second mortgages in 2007. One of my friends almost lost everything paying too much for a house in my old neighborhood with a "second" mortgage than came due after that crash. But the lender found a crooked appraiser to use sales from the next town over to get the value so she could refinance. She still ended up losing the house because she was upside down and had to move for work. It's like it all never happened to these clods.

 

[gregb]

The Appraisal Foundation new appointees to Board of Trustees for terms beginning January 1, 2025: David Beard, Krysta Gerstner, Perri Guthrie, Chris Rosenthal, Bilal Shareef, and Steve Sherman.