Are we headed for a depression?

[c w d]

I want off the hip, gut feelings here in the spirit of our famous (in?) president.

Do you feel like we're headed into a depression? Note the key word "feel". Not think, surmise, pontificate, etc, etc, etc.....feel.

 

[Wendy]

I think there will be at least a mild one. Of course it will get called something else - somebody will come up with a new economic voodoo name to avoid saying the D word.

 

[Lawrence R.]

Nah. I don't feel it coming. My money is tight, I have used a lot of credit lately--but not as much as years past.

I just bought a double wide to put on my farm so I can sell/rent (rent) my house and save some Moolah.

I recently had to buy a new car for my wife...with gas up, the prices are down on SUV's. I think I can afford the gas (for now) so I saved about 100 bucks a month based on what I paid for her Buick Ranier. It gets about 18 to the gallon city (V6) so we can live with that.

I noticed lumber prices are pretty low. Mortgage rates are rising, slowly, so slow at first glance they look steady.

We are getting a raise at work, more than the 2.75% COLA. My wife got a part time job to bring in 12K a year. If I can get through the next 2 months, I will be OK.

All in all, I feel we have been in a mild recession, spurred on by fuel prices, , but all in all, I feel like we may be poised for a recovery.


PS, none of the data in this post comes from any source other than my own personal experience. As that is all that matters to me.

 

[Greg Bell]

Not possible to service the present debt of almost 10 trillion dollars.400 Billion a year in interest payments says we are doomed (See avatar).Sorry for all the doom and gloom but I do not know how many folks believe you can continue amassing a huge national debt and everything will come up roses for the foreseeable future , talk about your head in the sand.Anyway , put away those rose colored glasses, quit playing Pollyanna , stop whistling past the grave yard and buy some beans and ammo..

 

[liznindy]

When I think of a 'Depression', I can only relate to the Great one (of which I only heard about from my parents). At which time I'm told that unemployment was significantly above current levels.

Don't think it will go that far. I think possibly maybe folks will just have to live within their means??? and work more than one job or even at a job that they don't like

More than likely, bankruptcies will occur and the cycle will start all over again.


Many Americans don't know how to deny themselves anything which they feel they "deserve". This is a behavior which will have to be learned as America has been living off credit for some time (both the government and the citizens).

I, myself, am having to re-learn a few basic economic principles, which I never forgot, just pushed in the back of my mind.

The price of gas is definitely having an impact on the majority (evidently not on Congress) and if it stays at current price or, God forbid, trends upward, then who knows what might happen?

I notice there are fewer brand new cars on the highways..

 

[Lawrence R.]

When I think of a 'Depression', I can only relate to the Great one (of which I only heard about from my parents). At which time I'm told that unemployment was significantly above current levels.

Don't think it will go that far. I think possibly maybe folks will just have to live within their means??? and work more than one job or even at a job that they don't like

More than likely, bankruptcies will occur and the cycle will start all over again.


Many Americans don't know how to deny themselves anything which they feel they "deserve". This is a behavior which will have to be learned as America has been living off credit for some time (both the government and the citizens).

I, myself, am having to re-learn a few basic economic principles, which I never forgot, just pushed in the back of my mind.(My Bold)

The price of gas is definitely having an impact on the majority (evidently not on Congress) and if it stays at current price or, God forbid, trends upward, then who knows what might happen?

I notice there are fewer brand new cars on the highways..

I think that many of us will, in fact, push ourselves back within our means. That will help to stave off a "depression". Recession, maybe. Depression, no.

Do they have a name for an economic cycle where the businesses fail at an alarming rate, but people do OK? I know it would be hard for that to happen, as the job market would be affected by lay offs and closed doors...but it seems to me like the local steel factory is hiring, and WAMU just laid off 200 workers.

Maybe our platform economy needs a little propping up from the manufacturing sector.

Here is another anecdote. My buddy owns a couple of sewing plants. 2 of them have been closed down, and he only has a skeleton crew left. Much of his work went to Vietnam and China.

The other day he gets a call from one of his former best clients.

"You guys still in business? We are coming back to the states! With gas so high, we can't afford the shipping anymore! The higher US wages are cheaper than the gas, can you believe it?"

My buddy says, bring it on, I can hire enough people to do double what I did for you in 2001. Granted, these are only 8-12 dollar/hour jobs, but in our area, that isn't all that bad.

So there is one good impact from higher gas.

My economic theory is this:

When steak and ground beef are close to the same price, people buy steak.

 

[Mark K]

No.

I think the economy will flatline like Japan's did for many years starting in the early 90's. I predict US economic growth will be close to zero for several years. It may dip negative or positive slightly but overall it will hover around zero until the US gets its economic house in order.

Of course its all relative... Its a recession when your neighbor looses his job and house; its a depression when you lose yours.

 

[PropertyEconomics]

No.

I think the economy will flatline like Japan's did for many years starting in the early 90's. I predict US economic growth will be close to zero for several years. It may dip negative or positive slightly but overall it will hover around zero until the US gets its economic house in order.

Of course its all relative... Its a recession when your neighbor looses his job and house; its a depression when you lose yours.

Inflation 15 - 17% NOW
Oil at $145 a barrel
Gasoline over $4 a gallon
Food prices continuing their strong upward trend
Housing continuing to decline
GM Stock at a 54 year low
Election year ....

Yeah ... Id say very tough times are coming ... its a perfect storm.

 

[Fred]

We have been headed toward a depression since the moment the last one ended.

 

[Ray Miller]

Flawed Poll. Needed to ask if we are in one.

I think we are in a depression in many parts of the country now? Take a hard look around? Many people out of work and have run out of benefits and are now off the unemployment rolls.

Food pantries are low to empty. Plants and business cutting back employees or closing the doors? Cost of food up? Housing industry shot? Inflation back?

Donations to chartable cause’s way down. Church offerings down. Contributions to NPR NPTV way down. Retail sales down on non-essential products.

Take a drive down the streets, byways and highways and look at all the toy’s that have for sale signs on them. Look at the resort and recreational business that is down.

Houses at auction are selling for less and less if selling at all in this area.

Take a look at all the store fronts in the small towns that are closed and empty. Take a look at the gas stations that are closing. Take a look at all the trades that have a large number of people unemployed. Take a look at the over the road trucking industry.

Farmers and ranchers are worried. Implement dealers are worried about equipment they have recourse on. Cost of input and cost of extraction are the highest they have ever been. Crops are short. I know of one implement dealer in my area that now has ½ million dollars worth of farm implements that he has not been able to recover the a mouth of money he has recourse on to the lender. Just last week one tractor cost $175K last fall was used by the farmer; he returned it this spring after the he lost is crop. They needed to get $150K for it and it didn’t even bring $100K. The big and small dealers in my area have a big fear that this is going to happen a lot. Have another friend who rebuilds hay bines at two farm equipment auctions in the past month he was not able to break even on selling them after he repaired them. He has been doing this for the past 10 years. He is also worried.

I think we will have another 24 to 36 months of decrease, level for a year or two and then start to pull out five years all total.