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Bagott explains why GSE Appraisals are not needed, they just write off foreclosures

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Living in Colorado, I can assure you there has been an absolute explosion of new migrant residents. They've systematically displaced entire sub sets of people and congregate so much in some areas that we now hear spanish announcements in overhead retail store locations, have multiple language notifications with schools, have multiple language written notification at all government and many retail, on our voting ballots, and no matter where you go, there can be roughly a fifth to a half of persons there whom do not speak English, or at the least, are communicating with each other in non english languages.

Crime is a real problem in sanctuary states. Something people whom live elsewhere, glued to fake news media talking points simply do not understand. The cities facilitate this behavior. This is a link from Arapahoe county, Aurora city, the same location where this international attention to gangsters really went viral. But we've been dealing with this for decades. It's not uncommon to see the true hardened criminal gangsters tattooed head to toe in many environments. Programs like this tend to bring forth the magnet effect. Next thing you know, the majority of the entire community are migrants.


The illegal migration figure is estimated to be 30m+ by many. Do some people here still believe the fairy tales the government tells them or that they can magically count the hundreds of thousands whom do not submit to border authorities? When suddenly you're the minority in your own home town after only several years of a steady flow, that's how you know and it's undeniable for people living in these effected communities. That's when there is a precipice of change and the remaining native's or American naturals throw in the towel and move out in increasingly higher quantities. Read the Darrian Gap stories. Illegal migration is truly out of control.

Of course migrants are affecting property values both market pricing and rental market pricing. This is a continuation of Joe Legal vs Jose Legal argument. Many of these people are taking in more on subsidized welfare before they even count their paycheck income, than many local middle to lower middle class Americans are taking in working full time jobs. The rising crime also severely effects cost of everything from goods to services and insurance. Our auto insurance costs doubled in the past five years. Colorado is now the second most dangerous state to live in. Our auto theft rates are astronomical compared to prior, so are many other crimes. Police are under funded due to progressive policies and now it's common place to see your local retail stores constantly subjected to smash and grabs, if you don't just see people shoplifting just about everywhere you go. Much of the crime is not reported into statistical databases because the leo community is often under funded and under staffed. There is also a corporate aspect where due to the many issues discussed in this thread, they benefit from this higher demand and reduced availability of supply, so now we also deal with inflated housing and rental market costs.

You have no idea how troubling the issues are and how disconcerting this is for regular working class people whom live in these communities. Let's see in todays CO news; Officer shot. Missing children. More hit and runs. Smash and grabs. Just another day living in a sanctuary state. When do the deportations start?
 
Much of this conversation is politically charged. The actual Bagott article is what we should be focusing on. Because the GSE's are operating in a completely opposite manner compared to their charter and stated operational goals, which is why they have the accreditation as Government Service Enterprises in the first place. They're handing out first purchase opportunities to big corporations and this hurts the entire country because like the article stated; price discovery is not possible under these conditions. Say good by to mom and pop fix and flippers, small scale investment opportunity for entrepreneurial enterprising Americans, affordable rent, affordable first purchase opportunities, your own flex and free cash, market adjustments that make sense in relation to general economic factors. All gone.

Instead we get artificially propped up markets for both rental and sale, higher tax bases as a consequense, and a pass down of the excess cost of doing business in the form of ongoing inflation which will never end. All so the GSE's could hand out special favors to big corporations and offer them first purchase opportunities ahead of the citizens of this country. The FNMA REO appraisal panel should be onboarding by the thousands right now and churning out incredible volume, instead they're on a skeleton crew doing almost nothing. HUD is not much different, there should be a lot more REO's out there. We should be seeing short sale MLS listings. Instead we see illogical irrational data that shows despite drawing out doms increasing concessions coupled with inflationary pressures, housing price is stable or often continues to rise, or if it is declining it's so slow and drawn out, does not make sense. The governments solution; Throw financial cash incentives at certain select purchasing groups so the corporations can earn even more on their reits.

Research the FNMA wholesale program link embedded in his article. There are at least two documents with each stated time slot. I went ahead and assembled three important points from that data and went several years back which I will post for you below. The date as indicated in their wholesale disclosures, month and year. The total amount of foreclosures, followed by the total amount of principal defaults (that's not market value, that's loan principal amount in default, actual market value of all those homes is certainly much higher.) And the summary servicer identification link from the second document sets which is the other click pdf.

You've got to see it yourself to believe it. The numbers are staggering.

Also of interest is they're at times releasing these non performing pools regionally, state by state.

10/2024 - 8,721 loans - $1.429b unpaid principal balance. ( no sale data yet) / Sourced from; nationstary & mr cooper

09/2024 - 1,766 loans - $296.7m + 29 loans - $7.2m unpaid principal / Loans are serviced by Nationstar Mortgage LLC, d/b/a Mr. Cooper, Wells Fargo Bank, N.A., Lakeview Loan Servicing, LLC, or Pingora Holdings, L.P.

08/2024 - 3,119 loans - $611.2m - Loans are serviced by Wells Fargo Bank, N.A.

04/2024 - 6,507 loans - $1.47b - Loans are serviced by Wells Fargo Bank, N.A. (“WFB”).

04/2024 - 1,205 loans - $221.9m + 52 loans - $14.5m - Loans in the Offered Pools are serviced either by Freedom Mortgage Corporation or by Wells Fargo
Bank, N.A.

02/2024 - 1,689 loans - $247.3m + 38 loans - $10.5m - Loans in the Offered Pools are serviced by either by New Residential Mortgage, LLC (“NRM”), NewRez
LLC d/b/a Shellpoint Mortgage Servicing (“Shellpoint”), in its individual servicing capacity and as a subservicer to either NRM or Fannie Mae, or by Lakeview Loan Servicing, LLC (“Lakeview”)

01/2024 - 4,874 loans - $859.2m - Loans are serviced by Nationstar Mortgage LLC, d/b/a Mr. Cooper (“Mr. Cooper”) and Wells Fargo Bank, N.A.(“WFB”).

10/2023 - 1,555 loans - $217.5m + 60 loans - $18.6m - Loans in the Offered Pools are serviced by Nationstar Mortgage LLC, d/b/a Mr. Cooper (“Mr. Cooper”) in
its individual servicing capacity. Mr. Cooper may be referred to herein as the “Interim Servicer”

09/2023 - 12,800 loans - $2.65b - Loans in the Offered Pools are serviced by Nationstar Mortgage LLC, d/b/a Mr. Cooper (“Mr. Cooper”) in
its individual servicing capacity. Mr. Cooper may be referred to herein as the “Interim Servicer”.

08/2023 - 1,460 loans - $236.5m + 25 loans - $6.6m - Mortgage Loans in the Offered Pool are serviced either by New Residential Mortgage, LLC (“NRM”),
NewRez LLC d/b/a Shellpoint (“Shellpoint”), in its individual servicing capacity and as subservicer to either NRM or Fannie Mae, or by Wells Fargo Bank, National Association (“WFB”).

08/2023 - 2,030 loans - $414.9m - Pools are serviced by Wells Fargo Bank, N.A.

10/2022 - 10,400 loans - $1.95b - Pools are serviced by Lakeview Loan Servicing, LLC, Matrix Financial Services Corporation, Nationstar Mortgage LLC, d/b/a
Mr. Cooper, New Residential Mortgage, LLC, PennyMac Corp., PennyMac Loan Services, LLC, or Pingora Loan Servicing,
LLC

09/2022 - 5,780 loans - $959.1m + 70 loans - $16.3m - Loans are serviced by Wells Fargo and Mr. Cooper in its capacity as servicer or subservicer for either
Fannie Mae or Community Loan Servicing.

08/2022 - 6,130 loans - $997m - Loans in Pools 1 thru 3 contain loans whereby the Master Servicer is New Residential Mortgage LLC, NewRez,
LLC and Fannie Mae and sub-serviced by NewRez, LLC (Shellpoint).

06/2022 - 9,980 loans - $1.57b - Loans in Pools 1 thru 3 are being serviced by Bank of America, N.A. and sub-serviced by Loan Care.

05/2022 - 3,320 loans - $489.6m + 120 loans - $36.3m - Loans are serviced by Mr. Cooper.

04/2022 - 7,600 loans - $1.49b - Loans in Pools 1 through 3 are being serviced by Wells Fargo or Chase.

02/2022 - 8,050 loans - $1.3b - Loans in Pools 1 thru 3 are being serviced by Mr. Cooper or Bayview Loan Servicing.

https://capitalmarkets.fanniemae.com/whole-loan-sales
 
I start hearing stories about folks eating possums - then I'll be scared...
What about organized migrant gangs smash and grabbing the local gas station where you take your kids, or the local sporting goods stores where they take the entire racks of munition and weapons out overnight?

Give a hoot if they're eating rodents or taco's, they're dangerous people.

They don't wash their hands after using the restrooms. #2 and straight out the door to the food court. It's gross.
 
What about organized migrant gangs smash and grabbing the local gas station where you take your kids, or the local sporting goods stores where they take the entire racks of munition and weapons out overnight?

Give a hoot if they're eating rodents or taco's, they're dangerous people.

They don't wash their hands after using the restrooms. #2 and straight out the door to the food court. It's gross.
Well, I think that may be a bit of a generalization, as I'm sure there are a ton of really decent folks who just want a better life. That said, I agree that the 8-10M folks that have crossed in the past 4 years have created a very significant culture shock for those who are here. Many come from extremely challenging environments, so to steal to feed their families, to steal to defend themselves, etc. is just a way of life for them. No judgement - I'm sure I'd do the same. It does, however, create a very uncomfortable situation for citizens who are accustomed to other folks having pretty much the same mores as they do - to be confronted by millions of immigrants who come from COMPLETELY different cultures - cultures that, to a great extent, force the 'will to survive' to the forefront.
 
10/18/24 Jeremy Bagott newsletter:

"In its National Delinquency Survey, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported in the first quarter of 2024 that almost 11% of FHA-insured loans were delinquent (along with nearly 5% of all VA loans). This should be shocking to all Americans.

Since 2020, the FHA has insured $1.18 trillion in new mortgage originations. The FHA’s average loan amount for forward mortgages in fiscal year 2023 was around $265,000 per mortgage. That’s about 4.45 million individual mortgages if you do the math. If 11% of its loans are nonperforming, it implies the owners of 489,500 individual homes are on a clandestine federal welfare program in which each household is receiving an average of over $21,000 annually in free housing. By not allowing homes back into the market to reprice, the FHA is helping jack up home prices for everyone in the process."
........................

IS A HORDE OF DEADBEAT BORROWERS AGAIN WALKING AMONG US?

VENTURA, Calif. (October 18, 2024) – In 2022, a San Ramon, California, couple who hadn’t made a mortgage payment since 2009 was finally evicted. Anita and Mahesh Khurana had put on a masterclass in the use of the courts to keep foreclosure at bay. The holdouts had lived in their home payment-free for 13 years. A state court finally ruled they had exhausted all appeals, and they were ejected.

In 2021, Congress and the Biden administration began creating programs to win over allies in the housing sector, letting future leaders deal with the clean-up. A new wave of deadbeat borrowers – some having learned from the Khuranas’ maneuvering – are walking among us. You can see them catching flights at airports worldwide, checking into luxury hotels and taking Ubers to cruise ship embarkation terminals.

Experts who looked at the Khuranas court filings told Kate Berry with the publication American Banker that the holdouts were extremely innovative in avoiding foreclosure on their $1.7 million home. They had made six payments on their mortgage in 2009 and then stopped cold.
...........................

After flooding borrowers with new lending, the administration now looks to be extending payment deadlines, providing forbearance and instructing mortgage giants to quietly sell properties with nonperforming loans at $0.35 to $0.50 on the dollar to private investment companies and nonprofits willing to play along politically. These homes are not repricing in the marketplace as they should. They’re being rented, taken out of circulation.

It's hard to cut through the misleading jargon and omitted information by Freddie and Fannie to know what’s happening with nonperforming and so-called “reperforming” loans, but the Federal Housing Administration, which also guarantees mortgages, is a government agency, so there’s more transparency. It offers clues."
..........................

Me: Its the socialization of mortgages, or the student loan version of for forbearance. So market value appraisals aren't part of the process. The inside companies get to buy and rent houses for 40 cents on the dollar and it will all be put on financially dead GSEs balance sheets.


However, releasing these foreclosures immediately into the market for resale at perhaps much lower prices could create a POSITIVE FEEDBACK LOOP - that could lead to a collapse of the housing market. They may have been able to forecast very accurately what would happen - that this indeed was a dangerous possibility. - They may have made the right move.

This isn't to say that appraisals aren't important. They are, even if foreclosed properties are converted into rentals rather than sold. The market value is needed to put a cap on loan amounts, as well as predict future losses. Appraisals are an important feedback mechanism in their own right. Inaccurate appraisals mean inaccurate predictions and thus poor decision making.
 
OSU- per the article.

The legal action aims to address these issues, as the hotel has allegedly become a hub for illegal activities which pose significant safety risks to the community. Despite the owner's initial certificate of occupancy issued in May 2018, it appears to have expired in November of the same year, and no new certificate has been issued since.

According to court documents, the hotel "has habitual criminal activity." Several people in the hotel had tattoos associated with the Venezuelan Tren De Aragua crime syndicate, according to a police report. Drug use, thefts, burglaries, and fights were among the calls made to police regarding the hotel.
And one officer noted the "continuous incidents of criminal activity" have increased since the Tren De Aragua organization began operating in the hotel.

With at least 5,000 members, Tren de Aragua is Venezuela's biggest organized crime group, involved in trafficking humans and drugs, kidnappings, and money laundering.
Formed in an Aragua state prison around 15 years ago. Its tentacles now reach Colombia, Brazil, Peru, Ecuador, Bolivia, Panama, Costa Rica and the U.S.

Kelvin Bass, communications director for Texas state Senator Royce West, told Newsweek: "A source of drugs, some gang-related violence, and possibly human trafficking anywhere in Texas could be somewhat tied to cartels and gangs.

It appears this began when DJT was in office and has carried over to current times. So, all in all IMO-doesn't matter which party is in place, it's a **** show.......as to who will control anything.
 
For whatever reason, I don't always get Baggott's Notifications of his blog articles. So I am looking for it now to try to get back on tract so a certain member's britches don't get in a bunch

I am there but I don't see the article we are discussing What is the title?



 
For whatever reason, I don't always get Baggott's Notifications of his blog articles. So I am looking for it now to try to get back on tract so a certain member's britches don't get in a bunch

I am there but I don't see the article we are discussing What is the title?



 
WoW !! Thank You So this is a real big holy mackerel !!
 
The REO market is being manipulated by regulators. Fannie (not sure about Freddie) is selling non-performing loans in packages to investors at steep discounts and FHA/VA hand out loan modifications like candy. REO vendors are hurting more than residential appraisers. And I don't see this getting better after the election because neither will stand for massive foreclosures to happen under their watch. We are in a time where the gubmint is actively manipulating parts of the market that were traditionally hands off, and I don't think we're going back to anything resembling a market that isn't heavily manipulated by the gubmint.
 
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