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Bidumbnomics

"Pay for new hires is falling in some blue-collar jobs​

Data from ZipRecruiter shows average salary offers for white-collar recruits have climbed since last year, but wages in several blue-collar sectors have dropped sharply

Data from ZipRecruiter shows the wages employers are offering new hires in several blue-collar sectors of the labor market have declined this year from 2023, with retail wages falling the most by 55.9%, followed by agriculture (-24.5%), manufacturing (-17.3%) and transportation (-13.9%)."

 

"Pay for new hires is falling in some blue-collar jobs​

Data from ZipRecruiter shows average salary offers for white-collar recruits have climbed since last year, but wages in several blue-collar sectors have dropped sharply

Data from ZipRecruiter shows the wages employers are offering new hires in several blue-collar sectors of the labor market have declined this year from 2023, with retail wages falling the most by 55.9%, followed by agriculture (-24.5%), manufacturing (-17.3%) and transportation (-13.9%)."

A combination of adjusting labor markets after COVID-19, a slowing economy, and mass immigration all have contributed to wages drawing down. It is precisely the wrong recipe for a labor force burdened by the ravages of inflation.
 
The Jolts Report came in way below estimates this morning, further evidence of a slowdown if not a outright recession.
 
The jobs report this morning was weaker than expected with continued contraction in the manufacturing sector and steep revisions downward for July and August.
 
The jobs report this morning was weaker than expected with continued contraction in the manufacturing sector and steep revisions downward for July and August
Before cutting staff, did you know the BLS jobs reports were fairly accurate? Happened under Obama's watch...about 14 years ago.

The more affluent are buying from discounters - Walmart, for example, saw an increase in sales by 5%. Meanwhile the Walmart shoppers are shopping down to DG and Family Dollar... but their base customers are just not buying. They are cash strapped.

Dollar General’s core customers are households earning less than $35,000 annually. They make up about 60% of its overall sales. More than 60% of these households claimed they have had to sacrifice on purchasing basic necessities and have also had to pay more for expenses such as rent, utilities and health care due to inflation, Vasos said to investors.​
Sharing a similar picture of Family Dollar customers, Dollar Tree COO Mike Creedon said in an earnings call that more than 40% of Family Dollar’s customers are eligible for some form of government assistance, including SNAP benefits.​

Meanwhile back at the ranch,

According to (Dollar General CEO Todd Vasos), Dollar General’s core customers have been less confident of their financial position, citing internal customer data and survey work: the majority of them said they feel worse off financially than they did six months ago because of higher prices, softer employment levels and increased borrowing costs. “While middle- and higher-income households are seeking value as well, they don’t claim to feel the same level of pressure as low-income households,” he said.​
Additionally, Vasos said more of its customers have said they are now using credit cards for basic household needs, and about 30% have at least one credit card that has reached its limit. Twenty-five percent of its customers said they expected to miss a bill payment within the next six months.
“Notably, the three softest comp sales weeks of the quarter were the last week of each of the calendar months,” Vasos said. “This pattern suggests that our customers are less able to stretch their budgets through the end of the month.”​
 

Move over Countrywide Financial (of housing panic fame). Washington’s new favorite subprime lender is none other than Uncle Sam. In a little noticed report last week—make that not noticed at all—the Congressional Budget Office estimated that the feds will lose $65.2 billion on risky loans and other “credit assistance” in the next fiscal year.

Federal agencies play by fictional accounting rules under which they don’t account for the market risk of their loans. Look ma, no defaults. This lets bureaucrats and Congress disguise the cost of their spending. CBO thus estimates that Uncle Sam will lose a mere $2.4 billion on loans and loan guarantees issued in the 2025 fiscal year under government accounting standards.
 
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