Bitcoin Is Over $7,200!

[timd354]

I don't know when it's going to end. But I will let you know when it ends.

Gee thanks....but it will be pretty obvious when it ends....ponzi schemes always are readily apparent when they collapse and it is difficult to see how the whole bitcoin deal does not resemble a huge ponzi scheme in many ways....doesn't mean that a lot of money won't be made by a lot of people before it collapses, but if and when it does collapse, it is going to be very, very ugly

 

[Joe Flacco]

Gee thanks....but it will be pretty obvious when it ends....ponzi schemes always are readily apparent when they collapse and it is difficult to see how the whole bitcoin deal does not resemble a huge ponzi scheme in many ways....doesn't mean that a lot of money won't be made by a lot of people before it collapses, but if and when it does collapse, it is going to be very, very ugly

Yeah I mean it would be unfortunate to be the buyer at the top. That's the risk. Buying within 10-20% from the top usually means you will lose at least some money. But usually you get a topping pattern and you get opportunities to exit. 1929, Dot com bubble, financial crisis, all gave topping patterns. The only exception I see is crash of 87. That crash really came out of nowhere.

 

[timd354]

Yeah I mean it would be unfortunate to be the buyer at the top. That's the risk. Buying within 10-20% from the top usually means you will lose at least some money. But usually you get a topping pattern and you get opportunities to exit. 1929, Dot com bubble, financial crisis, all gave topping patterns. The only exception I see is crash of 87. That crash really came out of nowhere.

The problem with Bitcoin is that nothing like it ever came before it, so the patterns that applied to other bubbles may or may not apply to this bubble. Additionally, due to the completely speculative nature of bitcoin with no actual actual assets to back it up and the fact that it really just exists as a electronic entity, I would not be surprised if the whole time frame of the Bitcoin bubble cycle is highly compressed compared to other bubbles.

 

[Joe Flacco]

The problem with Bitcoin is that nothing like it ever came before it, so the patterns that applied to other bubbles may or may not apply to this bubble. Additionally, due to the completely speculative nature of bitcoin with no actual actual assets to back it up and the fact that it really just exists as a electronic entity, I would not be surprised if the whole time frame of the Bitcoin bubble cycle is highly compressed compared to other bubbles.

What I have found is that I see the same kinds of patterns in all kinds of charts.

 

[Joe Flacco]

Interest rate chart had a head and shoulders topping pattern.

 

[Joe Flacco]

Topping patterns between 2005 and 2007. Bottom patterns between 2009 and 2012.

 

[timd354]

View attachment 33700

Topping patterns between 2005 and 2007. Bottom patterns between 2009 and 2012.

Looks nothing like the strong head and shoulders topping pattern in the interest rate chart you previously posted and from only this chart, the demise of the housing market would not have been indicated until it had already collapsed, making charting useless as a predictor....the housing market collapse was predictable and predicted by some based on the analysis of fundamentals, but charts simply did not give any warning.

Charts are great for viewing the past, but if they were so great at predicting the future, guys like you would not need to work as you already have made your millions.

 

[Joe Flacco]

I don't have a million yet but I've made enough in the market that I'm probably going to stop appraising at the end of this year. Technical analysis works for me. I think technical analysis is very misunderstood. It's not just patterns and trend lines.

 

[Joe Flacco]

Anyways. It would be foolish for anybody to be all in on Bitcoin. That's just stupid. But having a position like 5% in Bitcoin isn't any kind of crazy.

 

[timd354]

Anyways. It would be foolish for anybody to be all in on Bitcoin. That's just stupid. But having a position like 5% in Bitcoin isn't any kind of crazy.

Agreed, 5% is a very small portion of one's portfolio....I agree that it is not a big deal to take a flyer on something if that is all that you are committing....who knows, maybe you will hit the lottery on it.