Bitcoin Is Over $7,200!

[Tim The Enchanter]

Crypto plunge greater than dot.com dive

https://www.bloombergquint.com/mark...-dot-com-levels-as-losses-reach-80#gs.QzG5ECA

What is real / tangible about crypto currency other than a bunch of special purpose computer hardware?
And a fat electricity bill? OK, profit, or more likely losses. but after that?
I guess it does not quite fit into category there is no there, there. But...

 

[Big ole Boy]

I was gonna pick this apart for multiple levels of jocular commentary...but it's just fine the way it is.

Well, I guess I just like how he describes a possible world that can realize the top down approach we have is not working. And, a possible could emerge where we pull ourselves up by our own boot straps.

By the way, your Avatar is quite entertaining - a very creative mind whomever thought of it.

 

[Big ole Boy]

What is real / tangible about crypto currency other than a bunch of special purpose computer hardware?
And a fat electricity bill? OK, profit, or more likely losses. but after that?
I guess it does not quite fit into category there is no there, there. But...

Bitcoin feels ugly. You can't talk about it too much. Each larger rise and fall has a dirty feel to it. You could think of Bitcoin as an online chess game you have with others. The chess game in US equity markets is another, that is very Top - Down with the public and that needs to be balanced back and have software built from the ground up.

Somebody is using this phenomena called Bitcoin. Bitcoin just represents an old or not new method of wealth redistribution. It was only a matter of time for all types of new investment heuristics to develop.

We have conflated asset prices to the point where all kinds of things are possible. "Inflation" in this country, the world is just a meme forces are fighting for control over. Perhaps equities will take on these kinds of swings. High PE ratio today means a completely different thing than it did 30 years ago. .... fundamentals? .....

Maybe the fangs will crash, maybe they will rocket, maybe they will slow burn so that new types of bottom/up efforts take hold in the new republic of caveman technologies completely loosed from the Iron Curtain of Group Valley?

 

[Elliott]

From the Bloomberg article:

"As virtual currencies plumbed new depths on Wednesday, the MVIS CryptoCompare Digital Assets 10 Index extended its collapse from a January high to 80 percent. The tumble has now surpassed the Nasdaq Composite Index’s 78 percent peak-to-trough decline after the dot-com bubble burst in 2000.

The virtual-currency mania of 2017 -- fueled by hopes that Bitcoin would become “digital gold” and that blockchain-powered tokens would reshape industries from finance to food -- has quickly given way to concerns about excessive hype, security flaws, market manipulation, tighter regulation and slower-than-anticipated adoption by Wall Street."

 

[Big ole Boy]

That's certainly possible. It might play out that way or it might not. What I am observing is that it is continuing on a path to broader acceptance and legitimacy.

Dec 2017 (Peak crypto - exit point), then Feb 2018 (Stock correction - entry point) - coincidence? ... money flows like water ... I like Ray Dalio new book which he offers for free in pdf form about debt cycles. I rarely watch TV, but I saw him on CNBC via utube. He thinks we are in the 7th inning and then we have a squeeze again. Its possible that crypto could recycle again before the 9th inning and then put the gains into a big stock market correction. (Its a strategy I'm thinking on ...... but maybe back into emerging markets equities by then)

 

[Joe Flacco]

Dec 2017 (Peak crypto - exit point), then Feb 2018 (Stock correction - entry point) - coincidence? ... money flows like water ... I like Ray Dalio new book which he offers for free in pdf form about debt cycles. I rarely watch TV, but I saw him on CNBC via utube. He thinks we are in the 7th inning and then we have a squeeze again. Its possible that crypto could recycle again before the 9th inning and then put the gains into a big stock market correction. (Its a strategy I'm thinking on ...... but maybe back into emerging markets equities by then)

US equities just had a correction. I don't expect to see US equities below Feb lows anytime soon. Possibly never. I am full on bullish.

 

[Elliott]

 

[Big ole Boy]

US equities just had a correction. I don't expect to see US equities below Feb lows anytime soon. Possibly never. I am full on bullish.

I will have to adapt to these ideas about "asset classes" ... not sure why I found equities so abhorent when I was younger? It is nice to elucidate these large areas I was not cognizant of. I had head injury I think when I was a kid, maybe several. I think social IQ is what I lost a great deal of. But, its never too late. I'm just starting to scratch the surface to social IQ. But, Helen Keller made up for it, then so can I.

With each trade one considers there is the opposite correlated trade. I am trying to imagine a dip in stocks where I get in after profits from crypto. The same sequence as Late 2017 into Jan '18. A clear passage was made for crypto to enter the stock market on a downstroke .... ... I can at least plan for another such possible event as a precaution.

 

[Big ole Boy]

Maybe crypto could be used as a docking station where the unbanked world gets a chance to find an elevator. Two ships dock in orbit of a larger body below. Maybe the train never leaves the station.... maybe there is a new door into markets.

Ray Dalio would have us believe that debt service is accurately accounted for. After all, his thesis asserts nature to act in a truthful way. Hmmmmmmm.... having problems with this.

Perhaps the numbers never mattered in the first place. We just got someone who believes it themselves. Ivy Leaguers ...

 

[Big ole Boy]

The "Printed Number"

Back to Ray Dalio - Bridgewater investments - his newest book about debt crisis. I title this the "Printed number" as away of trying to encapsulate what Ray is saying in his book and the lessons he learned from 1982. In his new book we are to just rely on "official" numbers put out by the FED as part of Ray's thesis. I would imagine that Ray does not care about any potential (hidden) debt which is outside the official print because:

I imagine he would assert that the "printed official number" by the FED is what is used to form the narrative for pricing in all expectations by the market. I suppose he would say that the "public printed numbers" by the FED are all that we have to form an algorithm to anticipate FED response and market reaction. Any disagreement about "true" debt amounts is a question that is outside his own journey into the discovery of truth as it relates to nature.

The printed number from the FED is the only consensus we have to go with. Any slight of hand by the FED must be disregarded as hyperbole.

His first 60 pages are a beautiful work. The rest of the book is simply an ocean too deep for me to dwell in.

As he has said indirectly we are "all machines".

The machines are fed their punch cards handed out from somewhere above and we machines must make narrative and meme with that only for the sake of "consensus".

I like Ray's video he produced about his journey and how he learned principles to go forward with in life. He has managed great success.

It comes down to this - "Look here, Don't look here" as Greg Mannarino says ....

We are in world of "Look here, Don't look here" - such a posit - is the basis for a secular bull market for stocks.

His current posture is defensive towards stocks though - not a time to be aggressive.

The machine now can use AI to produce "meta stability returns" ..... A Ray Dalio AI embodiment ..

- I'm of the opinion though that Ray was not wrong in 1982; but to go forward he had to become a fellow "cuck" to maintain his circumstance. I think the "AI cuck embodiment" is what we are looking at with the secular stock market bull scenario.

Its a market where you can play that game - but a type where you just want to "get in" and "get out" with small amounts on a frequent basis.

Main street and Wall street - the two will meet again - and AI will be seen as just a new way to fleece thy neighbor.