DTB
Elite Member
- Joined
- Jun 11, 2004
- Professional Status
- Certified Residential Appraiser
- State
- Illinois
Only got to this post so far and commenting.
At this point, akin to golds actual vol (not iv) during time we went off gold standard. Btc doing same thing to a T. Btc actual vol is not different than gold. So I'd base btc iv off gold actual vol.
So /es is beta of 1. I'd run btc bets prob at 3-5 x's. It's unknown territory.
So /es sells off in economic correction. Gold rises. Btc is gold but better.
So /es falls 100. Btc rises 500. But that's not known. Just guess. So need to beta weight it. /es is known as a 1. Btc is unknown. I'd go 2-5 beta as guess.
When they are not correlated.
GLD and SPY are both up 18% since 12/2016 lows.