Burned out parcels in Pacific Palisades

[TerryRohrer]

EPA contractors are on site busting tail to get the debris cleaned out with a 30-day deadline. It would be a hell of a lot fun building some big beautiful steel and concrete modern design with breathtaking ocean views. The wife would give my left one for free rein in the Los Angeles Design Center.

Careful. If she heard you may be amenable to part with one, she may invest two!

 

[Charles West]

Careful. If she heard you may be amenable to part with one, she may invest two!

It wouldn't surprise me; I barely got out of the San Francisco Design Center with the skin on my back.

 

[George Hatch]

I don't know what's going to happen with those prices. There's the one closed sale at $1.2M but the location is close to high-income employment and people hate to commute. The prices could actually go up from where the listings are over the next few years regardless of what else happens with SFR prices in the wider region. Or not.

It's like DC. Even if 5000 workers move out the location is close-in so there will probably always be buyers from further out who will pay the premium in order to ditch the commute.

 

[Joe Flacco]

Dang. Santa Monica is crazy expensive. Are those 7,500 SF lots like $3.5 - $4 million?

 

[Mark K]

Edit: Nevermind that sounds about right. But looks like the sellers are all still listing too high.

My guess is that the houses that remain will be in high demand. Seems like a lot of people out there have more money than good sense and will pay a large premium in order to get into a house quickly.

 

[gregb]

Directly experienced the Painted Cave Fire (1990) and the Thomas Fire (2017) while appraising. Two differences that come to mind about the recent Pacific Palisades fire, is that these home owners are likely to be way underinsured if they want to rebuild. The other difference, construction loan rates are way higher now than back in 1990 and 2017. In both prior fires, construction costs skyrocketed with every contractor from who knows where descended on the scene. Will need to look back and see what percentage of owners chose to sell their vacant lot instead of rebuilding. There were for sure plenty of vacant land sales available for use in the construction loan appraisals that followed in the aftermath.

 

[Joe Flacco]

Replacement cost for this being $700 per SF is wild.

 

[glenn walker]

Not really. That is not what history of land sales suggest. The sellers are all listing high.



Edit: Nevermind that sounds about right. But looks like the sellers are all still listing too high.

You don't understand the Palisades was almost fully developed 60 years ago and there were only lots sold mostly when a old home was torn down to build a new one. Now thousands of existing homes are gone. Nobody really knows the value based on old sales because it's now a burned down community. Right now the wealthy are looking to buy view lots to build multi million dollar mansions on lots that preciously had stick built 1960 1.500 square foot working mansions homes. Before the fires people paid say $1.5 million for a old home on a 10,000 Sq.Ft. lot and raised the home and built one twice as large. Pure land extraction very few actual vacant lots sold.

 

[Elliott]

Any estimates on the cost and permit time to remove the house debris and ashes and level the site to be made ready for building in accordance with the requirements of city and CA environmental regulations? Last I heard no one was accepting the waste from fires in the surrounding landfills.

 

[Joe Flacco]

You don't understand the Palisades was almost fully developed 60 years ago and there were only lots sold mostly when a old home was torn down to build a new one. Now thousands of existing homes are gone. Nobody really knows the value based on old sales because it's now a burned down community. Right now the wealthy are looking to buy view lots to build multi million dollar mansions on lots that preciously had stick built 1960 1.500 square foot working mansions homes. Before the fires people paid say $1.5 million for a old home on a 10,000 Sq.Ft. lot and raised the home and built one twice as large. Pure land extraction very few actual vacant lots sold.

I understand.