Burned out parcels in Pacific Palisades

[glenn walker]

I understand.

Joe I'm 69 old and in the area my whole life and my wife and I drove down there last week. I have only seen pictures like that in war movies. Miles and miles of nothing but ashes and foundations and then a miracle of a house still standing but even the mail boxes burned. Without a survey and posting the corners I have no idea how some even know which was their home. But it's going to take years to rebuild and it will be different. Unfourtently there will be all sorts of shady characters trying to steal old people's lots to flip them.

 

[gregb]

There are going to be many buying opportunities in the Palisades for buyers who have the huevos to rebuild, not involving stealing old folks' lots.

 

[Joe Flacco]

Joe I'm 69 old and in the area my whole life and my wife and I drove down there last week. I have only seen pictures like that in war movies. Miles and miles of nothing but ashes and foundations and then a miracle of a house still standing but even the mail boxes burned. Without a survey and posting the corners I have no idea how some even know which was their home. But it's going to take years to rebuild and it will be different. Unfourtently there will be all sorts of shady characters trying to steal old people's lots to flip them.

That part all the way Palisades Drive where the lot sold doesn't seem like it is the nicer part of Pacific Palisades. Based on what existing homes were selling for there renovated and recent construction, and replacement cost of $700+ per SF, $1.2 million for that lot doesn't really seem like a huge discount.

 

[Joe Flacco]

Looks like the developers do pay $2.5-$4 million for tear downs on 7,500 SF lots in the area around Sunset Boulevard.

 

[Tim Hicks (Texas)]

I know location, location, location, but that is ridiculous pricing for that small a lot. That is an $80-100,000 normal lot in Fort Worth, $300-350 in the historical district. No wonder everyone is moving here.

 

[George Hatch]

There are going to be many buying opportunities in the Palisades for buyers who have the huevos to rebuild, not involving stealing old folks' lots.

By the time we get to MLS exposure and multiple bids there won't be any reason to use sales that weren't exposed to the market.

I'm wondering if some of the builders might go in via joint ventures with the current property owners to build on spec and split the proceeds. If I were a merchant builder that's the approach I would consider. West LA and the Hwy-101 corridor are awash in what amounts to 4,500sf subdivision-type homes, some with full basement levels. There are basically 2 general design concepts, the newer contemporary designs and the so-called East Coast Traditionals, like this one.

 

[Joe Flacco]

That house looks like something that might have been built 15-30 years ago on the East Coast.

 

[ZZGAMAZZ]

I don't know what's going to happen with those prices. There's the one closed sale at $1.2M but the location is close to high-income employment and people hate to commute. The prices could actually go up from where the listings are over the next few years regardless of what else happens with SFR prices in the wider region. Or not.

It's like DC. Even if 5000 workers move out the location is close-in so there will probably always be buyers from further out who will pay the premium in order to ditch the commute.

California state recently created a new department to address real estate price-coughing of folks who lost properties because of the fire, although it pertains to rental rates but maybe or maybe-not real property value.

 

[Joe Flacco]

This is like typical East Coast new construction on small lots. $300-$350 per SF including EP. $700 per SF is insane.

 

[ZZGAMAZZ]

That part all the way Palisades Drive where the lot sold doesn't seem like it is the nicer part of Pacific Palisades. Based on what existing homes were selling for there renovated and recent construction, and replacement cost of $700+ per SF, $1.2 million for that lot doesn't really seem like a huge discount.

My current assignment is to "review" the Market Rent opinion of an appraisal of a property on Santa Monica Blvd, Beverly Hills, under pending lease contract for $60,000 a month [A MONTH ALTHOUGH I THOUGHT IT WAS A TYPO]. My task to become geo-competent real quickly needs to include an analysis of whether the current rental market in that upscale 'hood is affected--presumably positively affected--by folks who require alernative housing because of the fires.