Case-Shiller Decline is steep this month

[Randolph Kinney]

Don't get me wrong, Case and Shiller are very smart guys who model real estate in about 1000 different ways. I just don't like that index. The theory is good but the results have little to do with reality, especially from a national standpoint.

Maybe you prefer OFHEO data?

They use resale weighting however, their data is limited to the GSEs with conforming limits. Plus, they use refinance data.

 

[Metamorphic]

I really don't understand why so much attention is paid to Case-Shiller. They are smart guys, but their model, IMNSHO, sucks.

First of all, they use resales of the same property. This sounds good in theory since it's the same apple (or orange), but it puts too much emphasis on flippers. This made the numbers artificially high during the boom and artificially low now.

Second of all, look at the markets they cover. 20 large cities concentrated in CA and FL with Phoenix and Vegas thrown in for good measure. They are using the most volatile of the bubble cities in the country.

Sounds like their method is well adapted to making sure their press release is the one that the features editor keeps in their pocket for when they have a 30 second slot, or an inch and a half of column space they need to fill at the last minute.

 

[jay trotta]

there is a problem with all that crapola...Lenders believe the market is Poor ALL OVER and expect everyone to make these stupid adjustments where they are not warranted.

To bad they have yet come to realize, that if they want good work and pay a reasonable Fee, they will get more "Realistic" material than they will know what to do with; they just prove their irresponsible nature by following the bouncing ball. Well edumacated but stupid as a gutter rat. There has never been a market like this un before, they're all guessing at whatever they think and ifn the happen to get lucky, they won't fit their fat head thru an average doorway. It's called the Balloon Head syndrome and it disapates as quickly as it inflates; hot air never last long no matta how you try to contain it......ROFL

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

On the other hand (sound like an economist don't I?), I was watching
ABC World News. They had a story about Case-Shiller, but said,
RE sales are up in those markets by 20% (bargin hunters?). And the
high price of oil/transportation means a cargo container that once
cost $3K, now costs $8K, so the furniture maker in NC is making
furniture again. Then they cited other increases in US factories
because of increase transportation costs, including steel. We live in
interesting times.

I saw that. The more interesting news was on PBS Newshour. 2 energy experts were saying this was a clear bubble in oil price and that the speculators at risk were Union pension funds and other long term investors whom they said didn't have a clue how much risk they were taking by holding onto those energy hedges...heard that before???

 

[mwbode]

As far as the market's I cover the Case Schiller figures have been the best of what is actually taking place in the market. Not to mention there is a futures market that is picking up volume on the Case Schiller index. As the futures market begins to become more liquid with higher volume I can only suspect the Case Schiller Index will become a massive instrument in the market place. If I am not mistaken it's become a financial hedge on the CME for large portfolio holders in the markets they forecast. They have actually encouraged homeowners to extract 5% equity from their primary residence to hedge with options on the index.

 

[Bama Bayou]

Maybe you prefer OFHEO data?

They use resale weighting however, their data is limited to the GSEs with conforming limits. Plus, they use refinance data.

No, don't care for them either. By the way, they also publish one without refi data, but I still think it is weak in many areas.

 

[Bama Bayou]

Sounds like their method is well adapted to making sure their press release is the one that the features editor keeps in their pocket for when they have a 30 second slot, or an inch and a half of column space they need to fill at the last minute.

Well, they did cash in, didn't they.

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

Shiller wrote a thesis on the fact markets go too far up, then too far down therefore, the so-called "rational" market did not exist. But even then his methods left something to be desired in 'tight' logic...never fear, overall he is on to something and at least, unlike the NAR it is not being spun with any real expectation that you are supposed to believe it.

 

[Bama Bayou]

As far as the market's I cover the Case Schiller figures have been the best of what is actually taking place in the market. Not to mention there is a futures market that is picking up volume on the Case Schiller index. As the futures market begins to become more liquid with higher volume I can only suspect the Case Schiller Index will become a massive instrument in the market place. If I am not mistaken it's become a financial hedge on the CME for large portfolio holders in the markets they forecast. They have actually encouraged homeowners to extract 5% equity from their primary residence to hedge with options on the index.

I tow ya dem boys is smot. Dey makin lotta cash on dis endix uf dayus.

By da way, Elliot, hondstoof hats is on sell at Wan Mot fo fi dolla. :new_llying:

Greenteeth

 

[Elliott]

Well look who made it all the way up to 6th place. Nice going.
Notre Dame 4th??? No way.

TUSCALOOSA NEWS COLLEGE FOOTBALL RANKINGS

Published: Saturday, June 14, 2008 at 3:30 a.m.
Last Modified: Saturday, June 14, 2008 at 12:23 a.m.
2008 TOP 25

Team Points Prv.
1. Ohio State 182.5 3
2. Southern California 165 1
3. Michigan 164.5 2
(tie) Notre Dame 164.5 4
5. Oklahoma 157.25 6
6. Alabama 154 7t
7. Georgia 148.6 12
8. Tennessee 143.5 5
9. Texas 132 9
10. Penn State 128.5 10
11. Florida 124 7t
11. LSU 119 13
13. Nebraska 113 11
14. Miami 108.5 16
15. Florida State 106.5 15
16. Auburn 79.6 14
17. Texas A&M 50.6 23
18. Army 48 17
19. Minnesota 42 25
20. Navy 41 18t
21. Clemson 40.1 NR
22. Stanford 35.5 24
23. Boston College 34.5 NR
(tie) UCLA 34.5 NR
25. California 33.5 21