Close To Recession?

[Terrel L. Shields]

https://a.msn.com/r/2/BBDb318?m=en-us

The US economic expansion is approaching its eighth anniversary, prompting some investors to worry the recovery might be a bit long in the tooth.
So what will trigger the next recession?
It's become a new Wall Street adage that economic recoveries don’t usually die of old age. Rather, they are often the result of an active central bank policy to slow an overheating economy.
However, a new report from the Bank of International Settlements, an association of 60 member central banks around the world, suggests that’s not the way it’s going down next time around (and they don’t try to predict when that time will be):
"The main cause of the next recession will perhaps resemble more closely that of the latest one – a financial cycle bust,' the BIS report says.
"While an inflation spurt cannot be excluded, it may not be the main factor threatening the expansion, at least in the near term," the BIS adds. "Judging from what is priced in financial assets, also financial market participants appear to hold this view."

 

[Randolph Kinney]

If the promised reforms on healthcare, taxes and border security don't happen, there will be a negative reaction.

 

[AMF13]

"The main cause of the next recession will perhaps resemble more closely that of the latest one – a financial cycle bust,'

They're working on pumping it up it now.

If the promised reforms on healthcare, taxes and border security don't happen, there will be a negative reaction.

Already negative reactions galore to the proposed demolition of that stuff.

 

[Restrain]

Fed Gov's are not seeing inflation. More of a stagnant economy, so may put the halt to further rate hikes

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

More of a stagnant economy, so may put the halt to further rate hikes

How does this differ from stagflation of the 70's?

 

[Riick]

I know on the surface this will sound especially stupid and/or obvious,
but recessions are a regular part of the economic cycle and will happen
whenever they feel like it. Last time 'round I was sure the cycle would end
by late 2005. Stock market peaked in October 2007, bottom March 2009.
I was off by almost 2 years, who cold have guessed how long they were
able to kick the can down the road.

Like our dear friend John Maynard Keynes used to say:
"Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent"

Still, to the extent it's predictable -if you've taken some winnings off the table-
you can use the downturn to feather your portfolio with inexpensive blue-chips,
or get that vacation home at half-price.

 

[Tom Woolford]

The cycle is repeating itself: Refi's are up, people are spending beyond their means, and rates will / are going up right along with inflated values. As soon as the money runs out, the bottom falls out. I figure 12-18 months. Just about the time for me to hang up my shingle and buy some cheap property.

 

[Eli]

The stock market is way overheated! Get ready!

 

[Randolph Kinney]

Events in Europe and China will tigger the next recession.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-eurozone-banks-italy-veneto-idUSKBN19H26O?il=0

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-06-27/europe-s-banking-union-fails-its-latest-test

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...taken-over-by-santander-after-eu-sees-failure

 

[Doug in NC]

"The US economic expansion is approaching its eighth anniversary"

That's news to me, I thought the expansion really just began in late 2017. The previous 8 year occupier of the White House seemed to do everything wrong for correcting an economy in recession. Nearly a $billion stimulus spent on "shovel ready" jobs never actually happened, and the countless $billions spent on "green initiatives" was totally counterproductive and even reckless. Amassing $10 trillion in debt for the nation certainly wasn't helpful either.

Honestly though, I didn't see any supposed 8 year expansion. From a personal business perspective, I experienced some of my worst years since I've been in business.
(nearly forced out of the business actually and I'm still recovering from the financial consequences) The only turnaround came in 2017 and I attribute that improvement to sustained low interest rates and property refinances, followed by a national election that signaled optimism for a better economy. I have a real concern that the Fed is going to drive interest rates too high too fast, and we are going right back into recession.