Low cap rates for most properties indicate to aggressive expectations for increases in either the rents/income or the resale price later on.
Let's say a property was financed with a 70% LTV @ 7%
.70mtg x .07interest = 0.0490 (4.9%). If the property is selling at a 4.9% cap rate the 30% equity position (aka the borrower) is earning 0% return. It the property is selling at 4.5% cap rate the equity position is cash-flow negative (before we get into any tax considerations). The property is costing the property owner every month unless/until they get the income up. Or resell for more than their (acquisition+losses).
In the abstract these numbers look small, but when applied to $10,000 or $100,000 or $500,000 worth of net income the results add up really quickly. If using (for example) a $50k net income,
$50,000 / 4.9% = $1,020,000
$50,000 / 4.5% = $1,111,000
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$90,591. That's not an insignificant variance in a $1M valuation.
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