Declining Calif. Licenses Over 5 Weeks

[Baron Von Squidlo]

Since I've had so much time on my hands lately I've decided to monitor silly little things like tracking the number of appraisers licenses in the State of California. It looks like licenses are dropping at a rate of 44 per week or .23% per week of the total licenses. Unfortunately, I'm not seeing an uptick in business as a result. Hopefully a tipping point is reached soon before I have to put on suit and tie, act p.c. and get a job I don't really want.

06/02 06/09 6/22 06/26 07/02 07/08
AG 3,576 3,575 3,584 3,582 3,586 3,580
AL 5,183 5,162 5,147 5,107 5,092 5,075
AR 6,060 6,077 6,102 6,116 6,113 6,110
AT 4,390 4,359 4,325 4,297 4,269 4,224
Total 19,209 19,173 19,158 19,102 19,060 18,989
Net change -36 -15 -56 -42 -71
Cumulative -36 -51 -107 -149 -220

 

[jay trotta]

well it looks like in a few weeks you maybe the one they'll need to call - thats a pretty step decline I would think.

 

[LadybugLover]

Yeah, I knew it must be slow in Sacramento when it only took two weeks for our renewals to be processed instead of the usual 90 days that it has in the past. We had one appraiser in our office hang it up in March - she went to work for Marriott Hotels in their accounting department - she was a great appraiser too - oh well......

Mary

 

[Metamorphic]

About 1%/month. Bout the same as a lot of the average-bad neighborhoods.

 

[Mike Phillips]

Welcome Newbie!

Yeah, I like to do silly things like monitor the supply of appraisers too. The official word is I like to play with Excel, but really, I'm keeping tabs on the number of residential appraisers in my state because...honestly...if the new AQB requirements and current business conditions don't trigger some significant fallout I'm going to consider making make some other arrangements. I'm not ready quite yet. Its mostly an old dog/new trick thing, as in, I don't think I can stomach learning AMC tricks. But things are looking much better, supply of appraisers-wise, in FL and I have more non-mortgage clients than I used to.

Unfortunately, it doesn't look as bad (or good) as I thought in CA based on your numbers. If you lose 200 licensees a month it will take you just about 2 years before the number of licensees drops 25%. Looks like your loss is ALs is being offset (50% +/-) by a gain in ARs. Of course, you only presented 1 month and licenses expire on birthdays out there, right? Are those figures for Active licenses or Active AND Inactive licenses?

Anyway, welcome. Thanks for the data.

 

[Baron Von Squidlo]

Welcome Newbie!

Are those figures for Active licenses or Active AND Inactive licenses?

Anyway, welcome. Thanks for the data.

Thanks! I'm a newbie of sorts or as far as posts are concerned. I've been a member for a while though. I use this site a lot for CE. I'm humbled by the knowledge of many the appraisers who post here. I gotta admit, though, some times I go through spells were I don't want to check in because of all the doom and gloom. I don't blame anyone I'm just saying.

As far as the data, those were the active licenses.

 

[dobie]

I guess we all have a lot of time on our hands. I looked at the ASC website a few weeks ago and noticed that on 6/30 about 15,000 licensees are due for renewal nationwide.

These are the states that have 6/30 as a renewal date either annually or in even years.

Should be interesting to watch

 

[Greg Bell]

We will know August 1st.30 Days after the renewal date.This year you did not need to supply any CE .It only needs to be done very two years now.Many probably renewed and are not practicing in the appraisal field ,Maybe.....

 

[Fred]

Total 19,209 19,173 19,158 19,102 19,060 18,989

When the GAO did their study of appraisal reform and oversight, published in 2003, (probably measured in 2001 or 2002), they listed the number of licenses in California at about 9,500. Could it be that the licensees doubled that quickly?

 

[George Hatch]

Yep, they increased that quickly.

The 9,500 appears to exclude the trainee licenses.

As of 04/2001 the number of fully licensed/certified appraisers was 9,484 (10,835 w/ the trainees); as of 04/2003 it was 9,479 (12,166) . But then it went up.

As of 04/2008 it was 14,835 (19,435 w/ trainees). Most of the increase was in the State Licensed and Residential Certified categories. The number of General Certifieds only increased by 34 between 2003 - 2007; that's an increase of about 1%. Since then the number of AGs increased quite a bit more, from 3,349 in 2003 to 3,584 in 2008. I reckon some of that was due to commercial appraisers working in fee shops trying to beat the clock for the 01/2008 requirements, and some of it due to residential appraisers trying to transition out of that end of the business.

During the last bust, California had topped out at 16,000 licenses (total). That included the trainees. As you can see, we ended up losing about 5,000 licensees, most of which were fully licensed/certified.

I expect the same thing to happen this time, as well.