Declining market or still stable

[glenn walker]

A Stable Decline

 

[Alsie35]

A Stable Decline

If its been stable for 6 months, say its been stable for 6 months. If it looks like a typical seasonal decline, say it and give your rationale.

What you actually call the market trend and whether you think about doing the *DREADED* "Negative Time Adjustment" (remember those boys and girls?) is your call.

Pro tip: Use only the most recently sold comps if at all possible (ah, but y'all knew that already... )

 

[glenn walker]

If its been stable for 6 months, say its been stable for 6 months. If it looks like a typical seasonal decline, say it and give your rationale.

What you actually call the market trend and whether you think about doing the *DREADED* "Negative Time Adjustment" (remember those boys and girls?) is your call.

Pro tip: Use only the most recently sold comps if at all possible (ah, but y'all knew that already... )

One thing taken out of a lot of markets is"urgency " and many areas were Californians were moving to has ended for the time being. Out here there is no urgency on buyers parts unless they have to move .

 

[Joe Flacco]

So, I'm thinking about this declining market. Are you guys putting "declining" on page 1 and on the 1004MC ?
I know every market is different. Issue I see now with page 1 on neighborhood characteristics and overall trend on the 1004MC might be conflicting. The 1004MC shows the "overall" trend from the past 12 months, but doesn't page 1 reflect current market conditions? I have had clients tell me that page 1 does not match the 1004MC check boxes.
Because when I do the 1004MC, I am seeing current sales prices being near what they were approx 6-12 months ago, but obviously down from the previous 6 months. Should we just use the data from the previous 6 months rather than the previous 12 months on the 1004MC?

Your check boxes in the MC form doesn't have to line up with the numbers in the form.

 

[George Hatch]

By the time you're talking about datasets of adequate size, what you see is what you get. Besides, if I array my sales in reverse chronological order and the pendings and newer sales are showing different than the more dated sales then it is what it is.

Obviously if you're working with really small datasets then the distribution and outliers will have more effect. But if the macro neighborhood and the subject market segment appear to be going in the same direction that makes a case for saying it that way. Equally applicable when the pricing is increasing as well as when it's decreasing.

This is also where talking about S/L ratios and DOMs can be instructive. In an increasing market if all my closed sales have S/Ls in excess of 100% then that gives me good reason to give the pendings similar consideration. If those S/Ls are below 100% in a decreasing market then applying the same to a pending only makes sense.

 

[Joe Flacco]

The rowhouse neighborhoods in DC not looking good.

 

[George Hatch]

On the face of it, it seems to me like those would be the last to go from increasing to decreasing due to the proximity to high paying employment.

 

[TerryRohrer]

The rowhouse neighborhoods in DC not looking good.

Imagine what will happen if DC is successful in getting the Govmnt to allow conversion of lightly used office space to dwelling units.

 

[Joe Flacco]

On the face of it, it seems to me like those would be the last to go from increasing to decreasing due to the proximity to high paying employment.

A lot of people don't need to be close to employment anymore. Plus we have a lot of high paying jobs in the suburbs. More industry in the suburbs than in DC proper. DC itself is not that big. Probably like 15% of the metro area population.

 

[Joe Flacco]

Imagine what will happen if DC is successful in getting the Govmnt to allow conversion of lightly used office space to dwelling units.

I dunno about that. The federal government buildings will never be converted into housing. They are like landmarks.