Declining market or still stable

[Alsie35]

Well, I just HAD to chime in on this thread this morning - so guess what "The Simulation*" serves up to me right after I did? The first report (pretyped tonight) in I-don't-know-how-many-years where I had to *GASP* make NEGATIVE time adjustments on the grid. You can't make this stuff up.

*Elon Musk is right, I guess.

 

[shrubberyvaluation]

I dunno about that. The federal government buildings will never be converted into housing. They are like landmarks.

Some churches and firehouses have been converted to condos. I doubt the federal government buildings will be converted.

 

[Joe Flacco]

Some churches and firehouses have been converted to condos. I doubt the federal government buildings will be converted.

I think he was referring to Bowser saying that Federal Government needs to allow different use for federal government buildings if employees are staying remote.

That church conversion in Capitol Hill is cool but the stained glass windows don't let you see outside. Probably really hard to sell that.

 

[Joe Flacco]

DC lost 5% of the population during the pandemic and flat in 2022. The population is back to 2014-2015 levels. With remote work, it is not impossible that DC continues to bleed number of people.

Daytime population which includes people that commute in daily is probably down a lot more than that.

 

[Joe Flacco]

This reminded me to update my neighborhood descriptions. It was way overdue.

 

[glenn walker]

You will all know by summer whats happening in your market area LOL

 

[George Hatch]

This reminded me to update my neighborhood descriptions. It was way overdue.​

I write those anew every time I write a report. That prompts me to actively consider the particulars and how the subject fits into its environment.

 

[Joe Flacco]

I write about the particulars and how it fits in the sales comparison approach section. More specifically, the "selection of comparable sales" section in the sales comparison approach section.

 

[Joe Flacco]

My neighborhood description section needs work tbh. I'm going to put some effort into that this year.

 

[Overimprovement]

So, I'm thinking about this declining market. Are you guys putting "declining" on page 1 and on the 1004MC ?
I know every market is different. Issue I see now with page 1 on neighborhood characteristics and overall trend on the 1004MC might be conflicting. The 1004MC shows the "overall" trend from the past 12 months, but doesn't page 1 reflect current market conditions? I have had clients tell me that page 1 does not match the 1004MC check boxes.
Because when I do the 1004MC, I am seeing current sales prices being near what they were approx 6-12 months ago, but obviously down from the previous 6 months. Should we just use the data from the previous 6 months rather than the previous 12 months on the 1004MC?

I've never been timid about reporting current conditions. My markets have retracted in price from 7%-15% since the summer peak, and yes that goes into my report. I also put in the monthly median for the market since 15 months ago, as well as a 3 month rolling average of the median. I also discuss why this particular neighborhood may be different from the market in general, IF there is sufficient data to support it, which often of late there is not, especially 0-3 month data.

I did see a house in one normally hot area get listed in early October for $266K. 4 months earlier, it would have had a bidding war within a day. 3 months later, it sits still active, for $230K. So it is possibly things are even worse. I hate making market-wide statements over individual listings, but the market bears watching very closely these days. 2 of the last 3 purchases I have turned in have been below contract price for this reason. One was under contract 60 days before the appraisal was ordered (contingent on buyer's home sale). Bad mistake in today's market!