Sorry for the pessimism.
Brian, IMHO the sad fact is residential appraising for mortgage loans is a dead business; it's like a flower in a vase of water, just a mater of when it will wilt and decay. The roots of residential mortgage appraising were whacked off the plant when FannieMae released their revised forms in March of 2005, and declared all they really want is an evaluation of sales data and someone to do a property inspection. Years of appraisers doing the cost approach done by the PFA method made it irrelevant. Appraisers using any, and every, excuse not to the income approach made it an anomaly that is not understood. With only one approach left, there is nothing requiring judgement to reconcile.
AMCs pay a reasonable fee for a half-*** visual inspection and a few sales slapped in a grid. That is what they want, and what they get for the most part. They are paying for a little physical labor, not professional judgement. They don't care what appraisers think; they don't value appraiser's opinions. Lenders get the report because someone else said they must, not because they want it. It well may be the current crisis that "wilts the flower," and replaces residential mortgage appraisals with an AVM and a property inspection. The saddest part is the public will probably be served as well, or better, than they are by residential appraisers. AMCs are not a threat to residential appraising. It is the cut of appraisal fees that lender's can take through an AMC subsidiary that has kept residential appraisals part of the system. Banks require appraisals because they can make money on them, not because they value the opinion of someone who barely graduated high school and would be working at the local burger joint if their cousin didn't get them involved in appraisal work.
