I think your best options for stability and security during a downturn will largely depend on the diversity of the work the company is engaged in. If all your company is doing is AMC work and mortgage lending appraisals then that isn't going to be a good situation for you because when their volumes drop they're going to dump you first in order to feed their more senior appraisers. On the other hand if a significant percentage of their work involves non-lending work and the really difficult assignments then THAT work will be more stable during a slowdown, and THOSE clients will be the ones that you'll want to impress and built a reputation with.
If the latter is the case then you have the OPPORTUNITY to build the more marketable reputation, subject to you putting in the performance it takes to do so. Merely being present there isn't going to be enough.
Here's the irony of the fee appraisal business: building the reputation for being the problem solver and doing the hard ones isn't profitable when times are good and the main priority is mass production of the widgets, but its invaluable when times are tough and your performance has resulted in you making their short list. Even now there's talk on this forum about the increasing difficulty of the assignments appraisers are being offered and appraisers in certain areas seeing the big reduction in volumes and inquiries. And we're not even into a transition phase yet, if that's even what this slowdown is leading into.
The real estate bust of the 1990s resulted in 1/3 of the fully licensed/certified appraisers getting starved out of the business for lack of work. The same thing happened in the bust of the 2010s. I highly doubt it will get quite that bad this time but the lowest performers (as well as the most junior appraisers) will still be very vulnerable to being passed over in favor of appraisers who have the demonstrated track record.
If you decide to stay then you should be collecting work samples from the high performers in your company and emulating what they're doing in every one of your assignments, even if it costs you money. If you do that and continue to hit your deadlines then you'll end up on their shortlist and be in a better position for any opportunities that arise. Your own competency will increase far more quickly in that situation, too. If they're considering giving a plum assignment or providing additional training and mentorship to a CR in your firm you want to be that CR; you want to make yourself the most logical choice and the surest bet for providing the high return on investment.
It's a marathon, not a sprint. Any idiot can make money in this business when times are good, and some of them have been doing exactly that. But the real test of the viability of a plan is what happens when times get tough. You're not going to hear about this a lot, but there are appraisers who continue to be backed up with work even while their peers are starving for work and trying to be the low cost leaders.
