Flipping Real Estate

[hastalavista]

Same scam different decade. I have been hearing a lot of those commercials on the radio too. 30 years ago it was Carleton Sheets selling the scam.

Remember him?

 

[Tim The Enchanter]

No. Must have been focused on the ladies 30 years ago.

 

[Deleted member 134708]

Tom Vu was the funniest thing to happen to late night infomercials.

 

[timd354]

You don't know that you're in a bubble until it pops. .

That sure as heck is not true in many cases. Most appraisers knew we were in a bubble by 2004 or 2005...what is not known is exactly when a bubble will pop and exactly how big the pop will be.

 

[techbiker]

That sure as heck is not true in many cases. Most appraisers knew we were in a bubble by 2004 or 2005...what is not known is exactly when a bubble will pop and exactly how big the pop will be.

If you ask 100 people, a large number will always say we are in a bubble unless the market has just crashed.

We were not in a bubble in 2004. The market spiked in a relatively short period before the great recession. Same in the dot com bubble. Only when you look back at the trends does the "shape" of the bubble become clear.

 

[timd354]

We were not in a bubble in 2004.

In some of the markets that I appraised in, by the end of 2004 was the third straight year of more than 25% annual appreciation which (unless that is a result of huge inflation) is clearly unsustainable. A lot of appraisers i knew suspected we were in a bubble by the end of 2004 and anyone who was not brain dead was pretty darn certain that we were in a bubble by the end of 2005. The only question really was how much longer it would go on and how much of correction would there eventually be. I have to say that although I thought that there would be a large correction, I did not fully realize exactly how large the correction would be, especially in some areas. Of course, part of the reason for that is that the market over-corrected in some areas as not only all of the appreciation from 2002-2007 was wiped out (in some areas), but another 10 or 20% of value on top of that was wiped out in some areas.[/QUOTE]

 

[Joe Flacco]

In the suburbs I pull up historical data in subdivisions often and I typically see what techbiker is describing. Huge spike between 2004 and 2005. For stock chart watchers it is what we call a blow off top. The market then over-corrected below 2004 levels and then stabilized around 2004 levels. 2004 prices are a key level.

 

[gregb]

Next peak 2024?

https://www.extension.harvard.edu/i...eal-estate-trends-predict-next-housing-bubble

 

[The Bob]

Looks like early 2006....

https://appraisersforum.com/forums/threads/housing-bubble-bursting.103686/

Edit: some were way early...

https://appraisersforum.com/forums/threads/housing-bubble-more-guesses.69723/

 

[miktay]

Same scam different decade. I have been hearing a lot of those commercials on the radio too. 30 years ago it was Carleton Sheets selling the scam.

30 years ago, Carleton got my $300 bucks.
30 years later, I'm still flippin' comps and asking if they would like an REO addendum with their order.