Global Economy Bursting?

[DTB]

I certainly agree significantly more money can be made, but significantly more money can also be lost. It is not hard to find someone who made big bucks day trading for several years only to lose it all in six months. It is much tougher to find one who never had a costly losing streak over a ten year span.

The best professional traders learned long ago it is better to earn money managing a fund of other peoples money than investing your own. It is much the same making money in a casino. You might win for a while as a player, but the real money is in owning the place where others play. Just as playing in a casino can be fun, short-term trading of stocks can be fun as long as you can afford to lose it all.

You can only lose what you are willing to expose.

At that point it's just a job!

 

[DTB]

Yes, different strokes for different folks and I should respect that. With that stated, with respect to CP, many blessings for taking care of your family.

Latest update on today. We can still have a reversal, but due to supposed good job earnings, they could hold to this head-fake rally till Monday or Tuesday due to upcoming earnings, then sell into it. The insiders always have the news before the public does.

But if IWM keeps taking out the lower lows on the 15 minute charts as it is right now and then take out yesterdays intradays low, then we could go lower to take profits on the run up of the S&P. Yet, we could stall till earnings next week, then they will pull back for profit taking. Volume is still very low today on all indices. Yet again, its all based on rumor and anything can change, but I will be aware during the day if I see any significant ups or downs.

Hey DTB what do you see?

Way too late of a response, sorry. I was at my partner's house fully thrashing our new trading software before full implementation.

I too was short all day after the employment numbers. Last 3 day runup in the futures has also been on less volume each day. Nice divergence setup.

Good luck.

 

[Couch Potato]

You can only lose what you are willing to expose.

At that point it's just a job!

With options it is easy to lose more than you have.

 

[DTB]

With options it is easy to lose more than you have.

How so? I don't trade options but if you don't exercise it, it becomes worthless. Loss, what you paid for the option.

 

[Couch Potato]

How so? I don't trade options but if you don't exercise it, it becomes worthless. Loss, what you paid for the option.

It depends on which side of the contract you are on. If you buy a call you don't have an obligation to do anything, but if you sell a call you have the obligation to sell at the given price. If you buy a put you can sell at the given price if you want, but if you sell a put you have the obligation to buy at the given price. So buying or selling the option determines whether you have an obligation or you have a choice to act.

 

[Workbox]

Way too late of a response, sorry. I was at my partner's house fully thrashing our new trading software before full implementation.

I too was short all day after the employment numbers. Last 3 day runup in the futures has also been on less volume each day. Nice divergence setup.

Good luck.

The market did not go down as much as it should have. The market makers must have the inside job earnings already and holding the S&P.

We are anticipating earnings to be rigged on weak volume, but it would be enough rumor to move the market a little bit more, but would it be enough for a true break out to the upside or are were are already broken since we broke key indicators on the S&P below 1110. We might not make it to the 200 DMA and the next true test is at 1220. If we can not break that 1220, then we continue down. If we break 1220 then we might go to the 200 MDA just like we did in 2008.

I have come to the conclusion to begin shorting the market or in my case, go long on the VXX. Europe is not going to make it, there is one bank in Europe that is going to fail and will probably take Bank of American and maybe JP Morgan with it. I would start moving money to regional banks.

What you see DTB? I think we might get some pop ups on the market starting this week, but with volume weakness, but it might be enough to get buyers wanting to buy in this head-fake rally.

 

[Couch Potato]

The market did not go down as much as it should have. The market makers must have the inside job earnings already and holding the S&P.

We are anticipating earnings to be rigged on weak volume, but it would be enough rumor to move the market a little bit more, but would it be enough for a true break out to the upside or are were are already broken since we broke key indicators on the S&P below 1110. We might not make it to the 200 DMA and the next true test is at 1220. If we can not break that 1220, then we continue down. If we break 1220 then we might go to the 200 MDA just like we did in 2008.

I have come to the conclusion to begin shorting the market or in my case, go long on the VXX. Europe is not going to make it, there is one bank in Europe that is going to fail and will probably take Bank of American and maybe JP Morgan with it. I would start moving money to regional banks.

What you see DTB? I think we might get some pop ups on the market starting this week, but with volume weakness, but it might be enough to get buyers wanting to buy in this head-fake rally.

By all means! Anyone still at a large bank is already late in moving their money although I think community banks and credit unions are better choices. Do take the time to check the health of the institution before putting your money in one. Some smaller institutions did get hard by the housing bubble.

 

[DTB]

What you see DTB? I think we might get some pop ups on the market starting this week, but with volume weakness, but it might be enough to get buyers wanting to buy in this head-fake rally.

You know our styles are very different. Very long term (market always has a bullish bias), Long term (months-leaning short), Medium term (Monday, I would be inclined to lean short).

I will see what overnight does, trade very briefly on Monday (pits closed). My trades, as you know, are typically <20 minute duration with 2% account exposure on the loss side. I don't hold overnight-no risk and I don't really care where the market is going, just looking for short term imbalance of supply/demand. (we're appraisers aren't we? :laugh

Good luck to all, don't risk what you can't afford to lose

 

[Workbox]

By all means! Anyone still at a large bank is already late in moving their money although I think community banks and credit unions are better choices. Do take the time to check the health of the institution before putting your money in one. Some smaller institutions did get hard by the housing bubble.

Very correct on your statement and those types of banks were actually what I had in mind. I remember a link that showed the strength of banks that was added here, but can't remember it. If anyone has good links for reviewing bank strengths or recommends any, please post.

You know our styles are very different. Very long term (market always has a bullish bias), Long term (months-leaning short), Medium term (Monday, I would be inclined to lean short).

I will see what overnight does, trade very briefly on Monday (pits closed). My trades, as you know, are typically <20 minute duration with 2% account exposure on the loss side. I don't hold overnight-no risk and I don't really care where the market is going, just looking for short term imbalance of supply/demand. (we're appraisers aren't we? :laugh

Good luck to all, don't risk what you can't afford to lose

Morning DTB and thanks for some feedback. As you and I know anything can happen overnight. Keep us posted.

 

[Randolph Kinney]

Banks are warned not to rely on future bailouts to survive

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...ot-to-rely-on-future-bailouts-to-survive.html

George Osborne, the Chancellor, spoke out after a major credit ratings agency downgraded 12 British banks – a move that is likely to lead to them having to pay more to borrow money.

The downgrading caused a sharp fall in bank share prices, wiping millions off the value of beleaguered banks. It is likely to lead to more expensive mortgages and loans for British consumers.

Yesterday there were reports of growing concern in Whitehall that RBS may need a third Government bail-out. City regulators are said to have asked the largely nationalised bank for details of its exposure to the global commercial property market.


All this sounds familiar with BofA replacing RBS. The U.S. is just too poor to attempt another grand bailout of every large bank.