• Welcome to AppraisersForum.com, the premier online community for the discussion of real estate appraisal. Register a free account to be able to post and unlock additional forums and features.

Global Economy Bursting?

Status
Not open for further replies.
Randolph Kinney said:
As long as the benefits are preserved, there won't be any rising up. However, the political points are being made today, Saturday, in the Senate where they will vote to extend the tax rates only for the middle-class with Build America Bonds extended and other benefits. The two versions are expected to fail. Next week will be the serious negotiations for extending all the current tax rates with some benefits added in.

There is no incentive to find work and if people are seriously looking for work, most of the jobs created are low paying. Here are the details of Friday's job report:

  • Payrolls increased 39,000, less than the most pessimistic projection of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, after a revised 172,000 increase the prior month, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington.
  • The jobless rate rose to 9.8 percent, the highest since April, while hours worked and earnings stagnated.
  • Overall payrolls were forecast to climb by 150,000, according to the survey median, with estimates ranging from 75,000 to 200,000.
  • Manufacturing payrolls dropped by 13,000 in November, the most in three months. Economists had projected an increase of 5,000.
  • The report also showed an increase in the number of long- term unemployed Americans. The number of people unemployed for 27 weeks or more increased as a percentage of all jobless, to 41.9 percent, the highest since August.

  • -5,000 construction jobs
  • -13,000 manufacturing jobs
  • +65,000 service providing jobs
  • -28,100 retail trade jobs
  • +53,000 professional and business services jobs
  • +30,000 education and health services jobs
  • +11,000 leisure and hospitality jobs
  • -11,000 government jobs

The real costs of living is increasing. People have eroding real incomes. California is coming to grips with its $6 billion immediate shortfall. There has to be additional spending reductions. There are businesses shutting down and laying off people, still. If there are no benefits in California to keep the unemployed in California, there will be a wave of people that will move to lower cost areas and where the jobs are. That is a good thing for the economy as a whole. That is a bad thing for California. The remaining people in California will have to suffer a government shutdown when the money runs out. That's a good thing; it focuses the attention on the problems. That's a bad thing because the state has to pay out health and pension benefits and pay bondholders their interest and redeem bonds when they mature.

Sooner or later, more layoffs and furloughs have to occur to cut spending at the state, county and city levels.
Click to expand...

Bonds will default and get 10 cents on the dollar when the Feds bail out California..just a bigger version of GM..We seem to be whistling on our way to the ovens..
 
In case anyone is wondering about trillions of dollars created by quantitive easing and near zero percent interest rate, why isn't this creating jobs and demand?

The way our monetary system works, you can't create demand unless the money is loaned out. Classic demonstration of pushing on a string. So flooding the markets and the world with more dollars through banks hedging and speculators arbitraging builds a bigger bubble or stretching the rubberband creating more derivative demand. This can only end in one of two ways: failing countries and states as they collapse from misallocated credit or loan demand is satisfied through higher interest rates. Just look at sovereign debt.
 
Austin said:
That 2.6 billion dollar short fall is a result of paying medical bills for that certain tax base that got run out. Tax base or cost base depending on the point of view. When you have an economy kept afloat by illegals you have an problem. If it were otherwise California would swimming in surpluses.
Click to expand...
I was waiting for this statement and do not blame your state in trying to take control. The true test will be for next year, but next year the excuse may be because of lack of jobs or those willing to do those jobs. Just an estimated guess.

Randolph Kinney said:
In case anyone is wondering about trillions of dollars created by quantitive easing and near zero percent interest rate, why isn't this creating jobs and demand?

The way our monetary system works, you can't create demand unless the money is loaned out. Classic demonstration of pushing on a string. So flooding the markets and the world with more dollars through banks hedging and speculators arbitraging builds a bigger bubble or stretching the rubberband creating more derivative demand. This can only end in one of two ways: failing countries and states as they collapse from misallocated credit or loan demand is satisfied through higher interest rates. Just look at sovereign debt.
Click to expand...
This is the part that most worries me, were is that money really going too? Does anyone find it sinister that all this money is being printed, but no significant impact? Is it me, but are these bailouts making it worse? or making it worse for some?

I think the money is going to the path of least resistance and that would be to countries that welcome our money with open arms instead of body scans.
 
Randolph Kinney said:
In case anyone is wondering about trillions of dollars created by quantitive easing and near zero percent interest rate, why isn't this creating jobs and demand?

The way our monetary system works, you can't create demand unless the money is loaned out. Classic demonstration of pushing on a string. So flooding the markets and the world with more dollars through banks hedging and speculators arbitraging builds a bigger bubble or stretching the rubberband creating more derivative demand. This can only end in one of two ways: failing countries and states as they collapse from misallocated credit or loan demand is satisfied through higher interest rates. Just look at sovereign debt.
Click to expand...

Ten-year-bond yields leap 19 basis points to 3.12% after weak auction

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us...-market-extends-losses-2010-12-07?siteid=bnbh

Tepid demand from investors on a day when yields were rising. Gee, can't get investors at higher rates with the FED buying securities. That only means the FED has to try harder and buy more securities, right? :rof:

The new deal to continue all Bush tax rates, plus all the stimulus tax incentives, plus a 2% reduction in payroll taxes, plus a 13 month extension of unemployment benefits, adding roughly $900 billion to the deficit in the next 2 years translates to someone has to buy the debt to fund these programs.

Looks like the spending reductions won't happen any time soon. The FED has to bump up QE to cover the demand for money by the government. Of course, the yield has to go up so the investors won't flee the market.
 
This is the part that most worries me, were is that money really going too? Does anyone find it sinister that all this money is being printed, but no significant impact?
Click to expand...
Oh, it's had an impact alright... record high food prices and oil prices the highest since mid 2008 and heading much higher if they don't stop.

I've had my doubts about Bernanke from day one. But this idiot thinks there is no inflation http://www.minyanville.com/business...easing-qe2-inflation-scott/12/6/2010/id/31531

Sure, you don't have to worry about the price of gas if the Fed is cruising you around in a Limo. You don't have to worry about the price of food if your tab is picked up by the taxpayer. You don't have to worry about health care.

The man is an idiot if he honestly thinks we are not inflating and the dollar shrinking like a piece of bacon.
 
......Looks like the spending reductions won't happen any time soon.
The FED has to bump up QE to cover the demand for money by the government.
Of course, the yield has to go up so the investors won't flee the market.
Click to expand...

That's just wunnerful!
  • No inflation <rotfl>,
  • Lots of cheap credit <rotflmao>, and
  • Rising interest rates for bond investors.
Bernake is obviously a freaking genius; how else do those 3 go together?

Terrell... don't fool yourself; Bernake knows exactly what he's doing, has written papers
(several years back, before 2006 IIRC) talking about how QE probably would not work,
etc., etc. However, for public consumption by the Sheeple of America, he parrots his party line.

Truer words never spoken:,,"Never believe anything until it is officially denied by the Government."

.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Find a Real Estate Appraiser - Enter Zip Code

Copyright © 2000-, AppraisersForum.com, All Rights Reserved
AppraisersForum.com is proudly hosted by the folks at AppraiserSites.com
Back
Top