Global Economy Bursting?

[Workbox]

The only thing going down to 650 is the price of gold. Before anyone gives a knee jerk response consider the inflation adjusted price of gold from 1985 (a few years post bubble) is actually less than $650. Even using some of those "real inflation" estimates the price translates to less than $1,000.

The market is not "stuck" anywhere, but is in a steady upward mode commonly known as a bull market. The days of high volatility were any fool can trade in and out profitably are gone for now. They will be back in a few years, but for now it's all about the individual performance of companies.

We trade based on the Technicals of trading, yes we are overbought and the charts indicate that. We can also be overbought and still go higher as long as the FED pumps in money to the system.

But we have a neat little situation where every morning in these pasted 2 days we have very large sellers and then to have the FED/Bulls buy up the stock all over again almost at the same time (look at pdf). Those big candle sticks going down early in the day are large institutions and the little upward dojis afterwards are the FED/Bulls. The same pattern is seen in all other indices and large power stocks. They are all dancing the same Bernak Jig.

Companies are lowering their estimates and many are cooking the books. Yes you can make money if the market is going up, but you must also understand that the longer this market keeps going up, it will kill jobs and cause inflation and gas to go up which is what The Bernak worries about if he really cares. The good thing about this market is that you can make money going both ways.

Another interesting thing is that the VIX is also going up along with the SnP which is usually the reverse for the VIX and it is currently spiking up. That in itself is telling of something.

 

[Big ole Boy]

stomachs looking for a meal . no ears .

... not seeing any real sentient audience anymore ....

... exhausted audience or indifferent audience ....

... no real ears out there anymore ... just stomachs ..... looking for a meal ...

... facinating to watch a country fall apart .......

... I do not revel in destruction ... I revel in revelation ....

.. its quite revealing to watch ....... people in mass .....

... come apart ...

.... whatever God is .......

.... God is definitely a concept that pervaids everything currently going on ...

.... God to some could be nothing more than a short narrative that explains the rise and falls of powers and flesh ...

... most people are ruled by thier stomachs ...

...God of the Stomachs ......

 

[Austin]

LAPD SETS UP DOMESTIC 'WAR ROOM'

Interesting stuff. California runs out of cash around April 1st and the government is Johnny on the spot ready to rock and roll. Its the political progressive class vs the terriorists or at least that is the way they are billing it. Problem is, who are the terrorists? Gonna be an interesting year 2012. The jury better be in by December 21, 2012 because that is the day of days.

 

[nm505]

On the economic (jobs) front, my sister is a high powered HR specialist that has worked for many of the bigger US corps (ATT, Verizon, etc). She left United Healthcare 3 years ago and has spent the last 3 years working with headhunters looking for another top level position to no avail (coming in 2nd place often). In the last 2 months, she had three offers and took an excellent paying job in CA. Two of the three job offers were with Green companies (Mainstream Solar and Sageglass). Just one person but certainly speaks to an improving job scenario. Wish I made the money she has made and is getting.

On another note, I noticed some comments in earlier posts re: Germany's solar industry in 2010 that did not look promising. A couple of updates:

http://cleantechnica.com/2012/02/09/solar-pv-reducing-price-of-electricity-in-germany/

http://cleantechnica.com/2012/02/09/clean-energy-loving-germany-increasingly-exporting-electricity-to-nuclear-heavy-france/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+IM-cleantechnica+%28CleanTechnica%29

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

Bubble in gas drilling is reducing supplies and drillers are moving rigs from Natural gas plays to oil plays like the Bakken. This is putting pressure on the industry. Booming places like Ft. Worth are seeing rigs leave and gas production decline. Same for Central Arkansas where BHP just announced they will reduce their 20 rigs to 9 in the Fayetteville play.

The added rigs going to S. Dakota and Ohio means that old refiners there will need to ramp up for higher production and every rail car that can haul oil is being brought out of mothballs and sent into service. Good for rails. The pipeline crunch means most Canadian oil with follow the yellowcake uranimum that Pre. Harper just sent to Canada by trade agreement.

Meanwhile in trying to alleviate the shortage of transportation lines from the Dakotas to refineries in the south, they have vacated a gas line taking gas north and are sending crude oil back south through it.

But demand for oil and gas is picking up in Asia. Gasoline prices are 20-30¢ higher than in November here. I suspect we will push $4 soon with the price of oil remaining below $120. If it breaks $120, then Katie bar the door, the price will break 4 bucks easy. Backwardation is spreading among the various "cracks" of oil while crude oil is bouncing around - spot price is below $100 but futures is falling with bad news from Europe (slower demand?) and rising with unrest in Middle East and Nigeria (a real hot spot for the U. S. because we get a lot of crude from them)

The disconnect between gasoline and oil may impact the elections. Clearly the price of crude is a huge impact on the price of gasoline, but we are producing too much distillates and not enough gasoline if i am reading the tea leaves right. This means the lighter crudes from the Bakken are changing the way refiners have to refine the product. The refiners for their part refine to maximize profits not necessarily maximize gasoline. but if gasoline gets higher, they tweak the mix again solely to maximize profit. With a strong diesel and jet fuel market, there is no incentive to refine it further into gasoline.

 

[nm505]

"Bubble in gas drilling is reducing supplies and drillers are moving rigs from Natural gas plays to oil plays like the Bakken"

Too Bad. The Honda Civic Natural Gas compact car was 2nd on the list of Green Vehicles. T.Boone will not be happy with this news. By the way, OSU did really well this year and even beat OU. Go Cowboys!!!!

http://cleantechnica.com/2012/02/08...mpaign=Feed:+IM-cleantechnica+(CleanTechnica)

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

The Honda Civic Natural Gas compact car was 2nd on the list of Green Vehicles. T.Boone will not be happy with this news.

Why wouldn't he be happy? That's what he wants, more and more cars on natural gas. Me too. I think it is the cleanest and cheapest fuel we can use. And it is transportation fuels that we need to move people around. We have plenty of coal if we are not too stupid not to use it. We have uranium reserves if we are not too stupid and ban nukes. We have the capacity to reduce our imports by a sensible level, say 20% or even 30%. 30% is half our current imports which would take about a third the bite out of our trade deficet.

 

[Workbox]

Why wouldn't he be happy? That's what he wants, more and more cars on natural gas. Me too. I think it is the cleanest and cheapest fuel we can use. And it is transportation fuels that we need to move people around. We have plenty of coal if we are not too stupid not to use it. We have uranium reserves if we are not too stupid and ban nukes. We have the capacity to reduce our imports by a sensible level, say 20% or even 30%. 30% is half our current imports which would take about a third the bite out of our trade deficet.

Good point. So what's the conspiracy?

 

[nm505]

"Bubble in gas drilling is reducing supplies and drillers are moving rigs from Natural gas plays to oil plays like the Bakken"

I assumed T. Boone would not be happy with your news (moving rigs to oil vs gas)...not the Honda....which I am sure he is very happy with

 

[Workbox]

Greece talks are going well today.